Friday, July 27, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 27 - 29)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Dark Knight Rises60.0-62.7%
2. The Watch14.0$4,419 PTA
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift14.0-31.4%
4. Step Up Revolution11.0$4,285 PTA
5. The Amazing Spider-Man7.0-35.7%
6. Ted6.5-35.1%
7. Brave4.0-33.6%
8. Magic Mike2.7-37.1%
9. Savages2.0-41.2%
10. Moonrise Kingdom1.4-23.6%

1. The Dark Knight Rises' dailies so far have not been promising for even an average second weekend hold. If we apply the Wednesday-to-second-weekend multipliers for past July blockbuster releases to The Dark Knight Rises, it could be looking at following numbers for this frame (I listed the new competitions in parentheses):

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Cowboys vs. Aliens, The Smurfs, Crazy Stupid Love) - $53.2m
The Dark Knight (Step Brothers, The X-Files: I Want to Believe) - $56.3m
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Little Man, You Me and Dupree) - $60.7m
Captain America: The First Avenger (Rise of the Planet of the Apes, The Change-Up) - $60.7m

So a high of $60.7m and a low of $53.2m. I don't see it approaching the low end since Harry Potter was more naturally frontloaded and faced more serious competition, but beating the high end will be difficult too considering Pirates of the Caribbean had the most weekend-friendly demographics, and it only increased 50.1% on Friday. A 60%+ decline is very highly.

2. Not feeling The Watch at all. The buzz is low, the reviews are terrible, the number of Flixster/RT ratings is only at around 21K, and it has not yet entered the top 5 of Fandango's sales chart. A That's My Boy type of start would not surprise me.

3. The Step Up franchise has seen its opening weekend getting weaker with each release, and the 4th one won't be any exception. The last installment saw a 34% decline in admissions from the previous film on its opening frame, and another such decline would put this one at $10.7m.

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