Friday, June 8, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 8 - 10): Madagascar 3, Prometheus, Moonrise Kingdom

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Madagascar 362.0$14,561 PTA
2. Prometheus50.0$14,732 PTA
3. Snow White and the Huntsman26.3-53.2%
4. MIB 315.0-46.6%
5. The Avengers12.2-40.4%
5. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel3.3-26.4%
7. What to Expect When You're Expecting2.6-41.0%
8. Battleship2.4-52.9%
9. The Dictator2.2-53.2%
10. Moonrise Kingdom2.0+128.1%


1. On the Twitter front, Prometheus has been receiving about 80% more tweets than Madagascar 3 so far this week, but the ratio for Madagascar 3 should be way lower given it is a family film while Prometheus is a R-rated sci-fi horror with built-in fanbase. Madagascar 3 is also experiencing a much better positive-to-negative ratio between the two (over 10:1 vs. around 5:1).

2. The number of user ratings at Flixster/Rottentomatoes for Prometheus was at about 34K last Saturday, way ahead of Madagascar 3's 14K. However, since then, the latter has seen its number soar to over 32,000, while Prometheus's figure has remained stagnant (there seems to be an issue updating the number today, but it still only increased 3-4K more in several days). This indicates that Prometheus is not getting much fresh interest outside its core fanbase as we move closer to the release.

3. The midnight performance by Prometheus will be strong, probably around $5m. However the midnight will account for a good chunk of its Friday gross. It will still likely win Friday over Madagascar 3, but not by much - something like $21m vs. $19m, then the much better internal multiplier will allow the animated film to easily win the next two days of the weekend.

4. This weekend more or less reminds me of the June weekend four years ago, when both family-oriented Wall-E and R-rated Wanted opened to over $50m. The holdovers could also mirror that weekend's result, albeit more top heavy with one film earning in the 20s, two in the 10s, and the rest low single digits.

5. Moonrise Kingdom is following similar expansion pattern as what The Darjeeling Limited had, but with a much healthier result so far. The Darjeeling Limited saw its per-theater-average dropped 61.4% on its third weekend when expanding from 19 to 95 locations. A similar hold for Moonrise Kingdom, which is expanding from 16 to 96 theaters, would put its weekend take at around $2m.

6 comments:

  1. It's old news now but this should be the weekend Hunger Games finally passes $400 million, yes? It's less than a million away now.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yep; could do it on Saturday in fact.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, that's what I figured. It's taken its time to get there - it's certainly no Avengers - but I've found it far more interesting to track than Avengers which has been so slam dunk to the point of being predictable and almost boring. More exciting to have Hunger Games's 'will it or won't it?' run IMO. So many people HG wouldn't make $400m or would have to be fudged to get it there.

      So where do you see Hunger Games ending up? I'd say it has a chance, maybe slim, of ending up between Spiderman and Toy Story 3 because it hasn't gone to the discount cinemas yet. But of course it won't get anywhere near Toy Story 3.

      Delete
    2. It should have enough strength to pass Spider-Man. The late legs have been remarkable.

      Delete
  3. spiderman did 7.5 milliuon in midnights , where does this put it for the 6 day opening week, you had it only doing 4 million midnight

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm now thinking something closer to $130m, back to where I had in the original breakdown.

      Delete