Friday, June 29, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 29 - Jul 1): Ted, Magic Mike, Madea's Witness Protection, People Like Us

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Ted38.0$11,732 PTA
2. Magic Mike37.0$12,628 PTA
3. Brave35.0-47.2%
4. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection24.0$11,106 PTA
5. Madagascar 311.0-44.2%
6. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter7.0-57.1%
7. Moonrise Kingdom4.7+38.5%
8. The Avengers4.6-35.9%
9. People Like Us4.3$2,092 PTA
10. Snow White and the Huntsman4.3-46.8%


1. I'm feeling bullish on Ted due to many positive signs. Its Flixster/RottenTomatoes user ratings had jumped from around 31,000 votes to over 47K by Thursday night, with a beautifully accelerating daily pattern. It is averaging over 10K tweets a day this week, and being able to enter the top 5 of Fandango's ticket sales list on Wednesday is excellent for a R-rated comedy. With the lack of success for the genre this year, especially when comparing to last summer, we are due for one to break out, and Ted fits the profile quite nicely. The word-of-mouth looks to be good as well, so we may be looking at a potential $150m+ success.

2. The advance sales for Magic Mike are indeed eye-popping, and it starts to remind me of Sex and the City, another film where older females were buying group tickets in droves ahead of time. On the other hand, like Sex and the City, Magic Mike should be super Friday-frontloaded, as it will similarly be all about ladies-night-out on Friday night. I expect it to win Friday with $16-17m, but have a much worse IM in the 2.1-2.3 range.

3. There is a small chance that for the first time ever, we could see 4 $30m+ films in one weekend, but the buzz for the latest Tyler Perry's Madea endeavor hasn't really picked up to the point where it is likely to happen. Still, if the top 2 openers perform well, we could be looking at a $180m combined for the top 12 films, quite healthy for this frame and making us forget G.I. Joe 2 was originally slated for this weekend until a month ago. With movies targeting different demos doing well at the same time, it would provide another concern for The Amazing Spider-Man, which prospect appears dimmer by the day with its tepid advance sales, low tweets count, and the general lack of buzz.

3 comments:

  1. hey Yun Xia, love your blog. it is possible for you to post weekend box office predictions one day earlier evry week?

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  2. I don't have problem posting the predictions earlier since I do them on Thursday anyway, but I have received request for not revealing them too early for people running contests since some may simply copy mine. Given box office prediction is simply a hobby of mine, I would like to honor such request as well to not screw up their integrity. In the end, I'll probably just give more early thoughts like I did with Spider-Man before posting the full set of predictions on Friday morning.

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  3. ok, sound great, thanks!

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