Monday, May 7, 2012

Projecting The Avengers' dailies and its eventual total

All I could say for the past three days is WOW! I didn't see $180m coming, let alone $200m, or $207.4m to be more precise. This is what makes following box office fun. It's getting rare to be truly awed by a number or a sequence of numbers with all the information available nowadays, so when it happens, we should treasure it deeply.

We are in uncharted territories, but I will still try to make some predictions on the potential trajectory of The Avenger's run, using past examples of Spider-Man, Iron Man, The Dark Knight, and others. No two runs are exactly similar, but previous data is still useful; e.g. as The Dark Knight and Spider-Man showed, when you have huge amount of soldouts that pushed business into future days, the film will show great initial Monday hold comparing to other movies of similar release dates before getting back to the norm in subsequent Mondays. So without furthur ado, here is what I am thinking:

Weekdays #1:
Mon (5/7): $20m (-65.0%)
Tues (5/8): $18m (-10.0%)
Wed (5/9): $14.5m (-19.4%)
Thurs (5/10): $13m (-10.3%)

Weekend #2:
Fri (5/11): $30m (+130.8%)
Sat (5/12): $44m (+46.7%)
Sun (5/13): $31m (-29.5%) 
2nd weekend: $105m (-49.4%; -44.4% w/o midnight)
Total after 2nd weekend: $378m

Weekdays #2:
Mon (5/14): $8m (-74.2%)
Tues (5/15): $7.6m (-5.0%)
Wed (5/16): $6.5m (-14.5%)
Thurs (5/17): $6.3m (-3.1%)

Weekend #3:
Fri (5/18): $15m (+138.1%)
Sat (5/19): $23.3m (+55.3%)
Sun (5/20): $16.3m (-30.0%) 
3rd weekend: $54.6m (-48.0%)
Total after 3rd weekend: $461m

Weekdays #3:
Mon (5/21): $5.5m (-66.3%)
Tue (5/22): $4.2m (-23.6%)
Wed (5/23): $3.6m (-14.3%)
Thurs (5/24): $3.5m( -2.8%)

Weekend #4 (Memorial Weekend):
Fri (5/25): $9.5m (+171.4%)
Sat (5/26): $14m (+47.4%)
Sun (5/27): $13m (-7.1%)
Mon (5/28): $10m (-23.1%)
4th weekend: $36.5m (3-day) / $46.5m (4-day) (-33.2% / -14.8%)
Total after 4th weekend: $524.3m

The multiplier from the 3-day portion of Weekend 4 for the rest of its run: 3.9
The overall total: $620m

1 comment:

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