Friday, May 25, 2012

Memorial Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 25 - 28): MIB 3, Chernobyl Diaries, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. MIB 360.0$14,124 PTA
2. The Avengers48.0-13.7%
3. Battleship18.0-29.5%
4. The Dictator11.0-36.9%
5. Chernobyl Diaries10.0$4,110 PTA
6. Dark Shadows9.0-28.5%
7. What to Expect When You're Expecting8.0-24.1%
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel7.5+132.2%
9. The Hunger Games2.6-11.9%
10. Think Like a Man1.3-51.0%


  1. I'm assuming these are your 4-day predictions counting Memorial Day, not 3-day, right?

  2. Replies
    1. Got it. Thanks for the clarification. :)

  3. I think MIB3 is going to open much bigger than that. Why only 60 for 4 days? Is that due to the Avengers taking so much business away, the franchise being a little bit tired or something else?

    Like the blog, keep up the good work!

    1. My thoughts on this, FWIW: first off, Will Smith is a box office draw and one of the few actors in Hollywood who remains one no matter what movies he makes. So, there's that.

      On the other hand, the last MIB movie was 10 years ago. There's a good chance those audiences have grown up and moved on. We've already had two sequels hugely underperform this year because they came so many years after their last movies (Titans, American Reunion). I don't think MIB will do that bad but long gaps between serial franchises isn't a good thing.

      Aside from this, Avengers is still going extremely strong and will be directly competing with MIB for that audience. I don't think Avengers will be #1 again, but it will put up a good fight against MIB. That's probably why people don't think MIB will open hugely. I do think MIB will have good legs though or good enough since as of now it's fresh on Rotten Tomatoes.

    2. Yeah, I had a lot of the same thoughts, but looks like it will indeed perform better than I anticipated.

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