Friday, May 25, 2012

Memorial Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 25 - 28): MIB 3, Chernobyl Diaries, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. MIB 360.0$14,124 PTA
2. The Avengers48.0-13.7%
3. Battleship18.0-29.5%
4. The Dictator11.0-36.9%
5. Chernobyl Diaries10.0$4,110 PTA
6. Dark Shadows9.0-28.5%
7. What to Expect When You're Expecting8.0-24.1%
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel7.5+132.2%
9. The Hunger Games2.6-11.9%
10. Think Like a Man1.3-51.0%


Friday, May 18, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 18 - 20): Battleship, What to Expect When You're Expecting, The Dictator

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Avengers57.0-44.7%
2. Battleship25.0$6,775 PTA
3. What to Expect When You're Expecting20.0$6,620 PTA
4. The Dictator14.0 / 21.0 (5-day)$4,654 PTA
5. Dark Shadows14.0-52.8%
6. Think Like a Man3.5-39.8%
7. The Hunger Games2.9-35.6%
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel2.1-21.4%
9. The Lucky One1.9-53.7%
10. The Pirates! Band of Misfits1.6-49.1%


Friday, May 11, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 11 - 13): Dark Shadows, Girl in Progress

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Avengers105.0-49.4%
2. Dark Shadows32.0$8,522 PTA
3. Think Like a Man5.5-32.1%
4. The Hunger Games4.4-21.3%
5. The Lucky One4.1-23.6%
6. The Pirates! Band of Misfits4.0-27.3%
7. The Five-Year Engagement3.5-30.4%
8. Girl in Progress1.9$5,900 PTA
9. Chimpanzee1.7-31.6%
10. The Raven1.6-39.3%


With only one new wide release and Mother's Day on Sunday, we should see great holds across the board. The recent Groupon deal for Girl in Progress should also help its per-theater-average.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Projecting The Avengers' dailies and its eventual total

All I could say for the past three days is WOW! I didn't see $180m coming, let alone $200m, or $207.4m to be more precise. This is what makes following box office fun. It's getting rare to be truly awed by a number or a sequence of numbers with all the information available nowadays, so when it happens, we should treasure it deeply.

We are in uncharted territories, but I will still try to make some predictions on the potential trajectory of The Avenger's run, using past examples of Spider-Man, Iron Man, The Dark Knight, and others. No two runs are exactly similar, but previous data is still useful; e.g. as The Dark Knight and Spider-Man showed, when you have huge amount of soldouts that pushed business into future days, the film will show great initial Monday hold comparing to other movies of similar release dates before getting back to the norm in subsequent Mondays. So without furthur ado, here is what I am thinking:

Weekdays #1:
Mon (5/7): $20m (-65.0%)
Tues (5/8): $18m (-10.0%)
Wed (5/9): $14.5m (-19.4%)
Thurs (5/10): $13m (-10.3%)

Weekend #2:
Fri (5/11): $30m (+130.8%)
Sat (5/12): $44m (+46.7%)
Sun (5/13): $31m (-29.5%) 
2nd weekend: $105m (-49.4%; -44.4% w/o midnight)
Total after 2nd weekend: $378m

Weekdays #2:
Mon (5/14): $8m (-74.2%)
Tues (5/15): $7.6m (-5.0%)
Wed (5/16): $6.5m (-14.5%)
Thurs (5/17): $6.3m (-3.1%)

Weekend #3:
Fri (5/18): $15m (+138.1%)
Sat (5/19): $23.3m (+55.3%)
Sun (5/20): $16.3m (-30.0%) 
3rd weekend: $54.6m (-48.0%)
Total after 3rd weekend: $461m

Weekdays #3:
Mon (5/21): $5.5m (-66.3%)
Tue (5/22): $4.2m (-23.6%)
Wed (5/23): $3.6m (-14.3%)
Thurs (5/24): $3.5m( -2.8%)

Weekend #4 (Memorial Weekend):
Fri (5/25): $9.5m (+171.4%)
Sat (5/26): $14m (+47.4%)
Sun (5/27): $13m (-7.1%)
Mon (5/28): $10m (-23.1%)
4th weekend: $36.5m (3-day) / $46.5m (4-day) (-33.2% / -14.8%)
Total after 4th weekend: $524.3m

The multiplier from the 3-day portion of Weekend 4 for the rest of its run: 3.9
The overall total: $620m



Friday, May 4, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 4 - 6): The Avengers!

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Avengers155.0$35,640 PTA
2. Think Like a Man8.0-54.6%
3. The Pirates! Band of Misfits6.5-41.6%
4. The Five-Year Engagement5.5-48.2%
5. The Hunger Games5.3-51.0%
6. The Lucky One5.0-53.7%
7. Chimpanzee3.7-29.2%
8. Safe3.3-58.2%
9. The Raven3.1-57.5%
10. The Three Stooges2.5-51.6%