Friday, March 30, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 30 - Apr 1): Wrath of the Titans, Mirror Mirror

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Hunger Games68.0-55.4%
2. Wrath of the Titans32.0$9,027 PTA
3. Mirror Mirror24.0$6,661 PTA
4. 21 Jump Street13.5-34.1%
5. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax7.8-40.8%
6. John Carter2.2-56.7%
7. Salmon Fishing in the Yemen1.5+113.5%
8. Act of Valor1.0-51.0%
9. A Thousand Words0.8-59.0%
10. Jeff, Who Lives At Home0.7+19.3%

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (Mar 19 - 25): John Carter repeat on a quiet weekend for openers

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. John Carter(异星战场)99.2m ($15.73m)+11.8%91,2092,493,715187.9m ($29.76m)
2. Late Autumn(晚秋)28m ($4.44m)New26,906918,63528m ($4.44m)
3. Night Fall(大追捕)18.4m ($2.92m)-7.1%40,994590,12138.2m ($6.05m)
4. Blitz(玩命追踪)13m ($2.06m)+33.3%31,690418,94922.75m ($3.6m)
5. Marrying My Perfect(嫁个一百分男人)11.5m ($1.82m)+23.7%33,086384,48620.8m ($3.29m)
6. A Simple Life(桃姐)8.9m ($1.41m)-59.9%19,600269,28864.1m ($10.15m)
7. War Horse(战马)6m ($0.95m)-63.6%11,770167,270115.5m ($18.31m)
8. Joyful Reunion(饮食男女2012)2.7m ($0.43m)New10,29785,0662.7m ($0.43m)
9. Fortress of War(兵临城下之决战要塞)2.3m ($0.36m)-4.2%10,96673,4354.7m ($0.74m)
10. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)1.83m ($0.29m)-3,09050,247646.33m ($102.48m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1586)

Sunday, March 25, 2012

The Hunger Games: the most impressive box office opening of all time

So $155m with estimate, and could potentially go even higher with actual if all the sold-out shows pushed more business to Sunday. This is simply insane, or any other word one could think of to describe such mind-blowing achievement.

1. Its opening Friday of $68m is the 5th biggest single day gross of all time, and the top 4 were all achieved by sequels. In fact, the sequels occupied the top 20 spots, as the previous single day record for a non-sequel was Alice in Wonderland's $44.2m.

2. If we subtract midnight from each respective film's opening day, its $48.3m Friday would rank 3rd all time, behind only the opening Friday of Spider-Man 3 (~$50m) and The Dark Knight ($48.6m, one that it could surpass when the daily actuals come in on Monday).

3. Its $51m Saturday ranks 2nd all time, a tiny $0.3m behind Spider-Man's first Saturday (so again, it may just claim the top spot on Monday).

4. It achieved an increase from Friday minus midnight to Saturday and in the process broke Alice in Wonderland's March opening weekend record with one day to spare.

5. If the opening weekend estimate holds, which I give a high probability of happening as I expect the Sunday drop to come in below 30%, it would mean the film has sold more tickets than even the first Spider-Man did on its opening frame (inflation-adjusted to $154.8m).

We could break down its numbers left and right, but all point to one thing: this is as impressive a start one franchise has ever seen since Spider-Man. However, ask ourselves the following question: was anyone comparing The Hunger Games to Spider-Man before Friday? No; and if you were, you would be laughed at and probably asked to have your brain checked out. In fact, we have been playing catch-up in term of its box office potential for the past three months, and in the end it still somehow beat the expectations even after the latest round of surge in hype this week. Back in early January, when its stock at HSX was hovering around $190, I made a comment there saying it appeared to be way overpriced as I was thinking a $50m start at the time (would mean an adjust-price of $135); Ha, silly me. Then I began to gradually move my target up, and by February when the first report of its advance sales came in, I realized $100m+ is possible; then $120-130m a couple of weeks ago, and finally gave in to the hype and settled at $148m for my prediction on Thursday. It still felt short. Many who have followed the film may have similar stories. The way the film defied and raised expectations, on top of the raw awesomeness of its numbers so far, is what push its opening weekend to be the most impressive one ever for me.

And we are not done yet. With very good word-of-mouth, that Fri-to-Sat increase, and not much competition in April, The Hunger Games could stay at the top of the chart for a while. I do believe $400m total is very likely to happen now. The bar for the other mega-blockbusters of the year, such as The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, and The Hobbit, has been officially raised. This is going to be an exciting year at the box office.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 23 - 25): The Hunger Games; yes, I'm buying into the hype

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Hunger Games148.0$35,775 PTA
2. 21 Jump Street23.0-36.6%
3. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax13.0-42.9%
4. John Carter6.5-52.1%

Detailed breakdown for my The Hunger Games predictions:

Midnight - $25m
Friday without Midnight - $46m
Friday with midnight - $71m
Saturday - $45m
Sunday - $32m
Weekend - $148m

With excellent word-of-mouth, 21 Jump Street should see a healthy hold despite having to face The Hunger Games' massive opening. After all, Horrible Bosses declined just 37.2% when facing Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2's record-setting $169m start. Not much to discuss for the rest, as no film outside the top 4 would gross above $3m on this weekend.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (03/12 - 03/18): John Carter was off to an excellent start

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. John Carter(异星战场)88.7m ($14.03m)New41,3652,196,08888.7m ($14.03m)
2. A Simple Life(桃姐)22.2m ($3.51m)-32.7%42,948697,67455.2m ($8.74m)
3. Night Fall(大追捕)19.8m ($3.13m)New29,851629,37019.8m ($3.13m)
4. War Horse(战马)16.5m ($2.61m)-55.4%27,731486,295109.5m ($17.36m)
5. Blitz(玩命追踪)9.75m ($1.54m)New16,553309,5239.75m ($1.54m)
6. Marrying My Perfect(嫁个一百分男人)9.3m ($1.47m)New15,506299,0359.3m ($1.47m)
7. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)8.7m ($1.38m)-60.1%15,344212,402376.5m ($58.39m)
8. The Second Woman(情谜)7.28m ($1.15m)-43.6%24,015231,25720.18m ($3.19m)
9. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World in 4D(非常小特工)6.67m ($1.06m)-64.5%18,528190,46225.47m ($4.04m)
10. Conan the Barbarian(王者之剑)5.7m ($0.90m)-67.2%13,075156,98142.8m ($6.79m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1582)

Saturday, March 17, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (03/05 - 03/11): War Horse repeat while A Simple Life shined; Mission Impossible 4 crossed $100m

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. War Horse(战马)37m ($5.86m)-33.9%42,9961,120,87293m ($14.75m)
2. A Simple Life(桃姐)33m ($5.23m)New32,8091,057,01433m ($5.23m)
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)21.8m ($3.46m)-44.1%24,424531,837367.8m ($58.39m)
4. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World in 4D(非常小特工)18.8m ($2.98m)New24,745524,84618.8m ($2.98m)
5. Conan the Barbarian(王者之剑)17.4m ($2.76m)-11.7%25,849474,24337.1m ($5.89m)
6. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)14.4m ($2.28m)-40.0%16,535395,930640m ($101.48m)
7. The Second Woman(情谜)12.9m ($2.04m)New21,055408,48612.9m ($2.04m)
8. À bout portant(单刀直入)5.2m ($0.82m)New10,496164,6615.2m ($0.82m)
9. Turning Point 2(变节:潜罪犯)4.9m ($0.78m)-31.9%15,353157,86012.1m ($1.92m)
10. Feng Kuang De Chun Zei(疯狂的蠢贼)4.7m ($0.74m)-44.7%15,046162,12413.2m ($2.09m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1585)

China Weekly Box Office (02/27 - 03/04): War Horse leads as we entered March

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. War Horse(战马)56m ($8.89m)New56,1991,709,92356m ($8.89m)
2. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)39m ($6.19m)-41.8%43,262962,013346m ($54.93m)
3. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)24m ($3.81m)-46.1%28,622683,371625.6m ($99.2m)
4. Conan the Barbarian(王者之剑)19.7m ($3.13m)New23,456517,46719.7m ($3.13m)
5. Happy Feet Two(快乐大脚2)14m ($2.22m)-58.8%25,187382,82748m ($7.62m)
6. Love(爱)10.3m ($1.64m)-67.8%18,221296,573134.3m ($21.32m)
7. Tales of Two Cities(双城计中计)9.4m ($1.49m)-18.3%27,851311,25820.9m ($2.68m)
8. Feng Kuang De Chun Zei(疯狂的蠢贼)8.5m ($1.35m)New16,808278,9628.5m ($1.35m)
9. Turning Point 2(变节:潜罪犯)7.2m ($1.14m)New12,599223,5337.2m ($1.14m)
10. I Do(我愿意)5.2m ($0.83m)-64.1%13,660165,92280.4m ($12.77m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

Friday, March 16, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 16 - 18): 21 Jump Street

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. 21 Jump Street34.0$10,894 PTA
2. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax25.0-35.6%
3. John Carter17.0-43.7%
4. Project X6.0-46.2%
5. Act of Valor4.5-35.6%
6. A Thousand Words3.7-40.1%
7. Safe House3.4-29.2%
8. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island2.7-25.2%
9. The Vow2.7-29.7%
10. Silent House2.3-65.5%

Friday, March 9, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 9 - 11): John Carter, Silent House, A Thousand Words

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax43.0-38.8%
2. John Carter17.0$4,535 PTA
3. Project X10.0-52.5%
4. Act of Valor8.2-39.6%
5. Silent House5.5$2,589 PTA
6. Safe House5.0-32.3%
7. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island4.1-37.4%
8. The Vow4.1-31.8%
9. A Thousand Words4.0$2,116 PTA
10. This Means War3.8-31.7%

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (02/20 - 02/26): Journey 2 crossed 300m yuan, and Mission Impossible 4 is approaching $100m

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)67m ($10.64m)-53.8%60,5281,645,383307m ($48.74m)
2. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)44.5m ($7.07m)-44.7%44,3501,279,838601.6m ($95.39m)
3. Happy Feet Two(快乐大脚2)34m ($5.40m)New43,845915,94834m ($5.40m)
4. Love(爱)32m ($5.08m)-65.2%42,048944,788124m ($19.68m)
5. I Do(我愿意)14.5m ($2.30m)-64.6%29,570446,70375.2m ($11.94m)
6. Killer Elite(铁血精英)14.3m ($2.27m)-4.7%28,194448,97929.3m ($4.65m)
7. Tales of Two Cities(双城计中计)11.5m ($1.19m)New18,075371,80711.5m ($1.19m)
8. The King's Speech(国王的演讲)4.5m ($0.71m)New10,716137,0284.5m ($0.71m)
9. New Dragon Gate(新龙门客栈)4.3m ($0.68m)New10,430136,8994.3m ($0.68m)
10. Truth or Brave(真心话大冒险)2.4m ($0.38m)-79.7%7,17584,53614.2m ($2.25m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

Friday, March 2, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 2 - 4): Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, Project X

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax47.0$12,607 PTA
2. Project X16.0$5,237 PTA
3. Act of Valor13.0-46.9%
4. Good Deeds6.8-56.4%
5. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island6.6-50.7%
6. Safe House6.0-45.1%
7. The Vow5.5-44.5%
8. This Means War4.6-45.4%
9. The Artist4.4+51.4%
10. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance4.3-52.3%