Friday, February 10, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 10 - 12): The Vow, Safe House, Star Wars: Episode I, Journey 2

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Vow43.0$14,537 PTA
2. Safe House30.0$9,622 PTA
3. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D)17.0$6,403 PTA
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island15.0$4,323 PTA
5. Chronicle12.0-45.5%
6. The Women in Black11.0-47.3%
7. Big Miracle5.5-29.1%
8. The Grey5.3-43.0%
9. The Descendants3.4-25.3%
10. One for the Money2.6-50.1%

1. The breakout signs for The Vow are everywhere: Major Theater Chain tracking coming in way higher than ReelSource's (34 vs. high-teens), averaging 50K tweets per day for the last three days, accounting for 40% of the ticket sales at Fandango even with the presence of an ultra-fanboy film in The Phantom Menace. Remember Dear John opened on the less-friendly Superbowl frame, and a normal non-NFL Sunday hold would have pushed its already impressive opening even higher to around $34m. With better tracking, more proximity to Valentine's Day, and a couple years of ticket inflation, a $40m start is well within reach for The Vow.

2. Safe House has the feel of The Book of Eli, which opened to $32.8m with some help from MLK holiday. This January has shown that the 18-25 years old crowd is coming back to theaters, and along with the usual audience that would show up to see Denzel Washington kicking ass, it should be enough for Washington's 3rd $30m+ opener of his career.

3. The Phantom Menace re-release, in 3D this time, is selling well on Fandango, but I am not convinced it will translate that nicely to the actual gross. Given the fanatic nature of its fans, the advance online ticket sales will be disproportionally skewed comparing other regular films, even previous 3D re-releases. It was mentioned in HSX that NRG survey showed it was tracking in between the re-releases of The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, but those two are Disney animated films, a far different creature. Avatar: Special Edition, for example, accounted for 14% of advance sales the day before its release and only opened to $4m. The Phantom Menace will have a lot more theaters, but I don't see a $20m weekend.

4. In one of those rare occasions, the film with the most amount of theaters in a 4-openers weekend also appears to be the weakest, thanks to the lukewarm responses 3D family-oriented sequels have seen since last year. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island won't be able to break that trend, not on this highly competitive weekend and not with another 3D film that will attract some of the similar audience.

1 comment:

  1. at first I was like wow for your huge prediction for the vow, but it may turn out to be even higher