Saturday, February 25, 2012

Final Oscar Predictions

Best Picture - The Artist

Best Director - Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Actor - Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Best Actress - Viola Davis, The Help

Best Supporting Actor - Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress - Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Adapted Screenplay - The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay - Midnight in Paris

Best Animated Feature Film -Rango

Best Foreign Language Film - A Separation (Iran)

Best Editing - The Artist

Best Cinematography - The Artist

Best Art Direction - Hugo

Best Costume Design - The Artist

Best Documentary Feature - Pina

Best Documentary Short - Saving Face

Best Makeup - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Original Score - The Artist

Best Original Song - "Man or Muppet," The Muppets

Best Animated Short Film - Wild Life

Best Live Action Short Film - Tuba Atlantic

Best Sound Editing - Hugo

Best Sound Mixing - Hugo

Best Visual Effects - Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Friday, February 24, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 24 - 26): Act of Valor, Good Deeds, Gone, Wanderlust

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Act of Valor24.0$7,897 PTA
2. Good Deeds15.5$7,270 PTA
3. Safe House14.0-40.8%
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island12.5-37.0%
5. The Vow12.0-48.0%
6. This Means War9.0-48.3%
7. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance8.9-59.8%
8. Gone5.3$2,425 PTA
9. Wanderlust5.0$2,499 PTA
10. The Secret World of Arrietty4.5-30.2%

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (02/13 - 02/19): Journey 2 jumped to the top

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)145m ($23.01m)+52.6%80,9233,327,977240m ($38.1m)
2. Love(爱)92m ($14.60m)New62,3662,542,13892m ($14.6m)
3. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)80.4m ($12.76m)-40.2%54,4392,178,861557.1m ($88.32m)
4. I Do(我愿意)41m ($6.51m)+108.1%48,5301,153,95460.7m ($9.64m)
5. Killer Elite(铁血精英)15m ($2.38m)New19,004476,19015m ($2.38m)
6. Truth or Brave(真心话大冒险)11.8m ($1.87m)New16,964369,21111.8m ($1.87m)
7. Romancing in Thin Air(高海拔之恋Ⅱ)7.5m ($1.19m)-35.3%17,055203,91519.1m ($3.03m)
8. Ye Dian Gui Tan(夜店诡谈)3.4m ($0.54m)+11.1%8,482101,7966.46m ($1.03m)
9. The Burma Conspiracy(豪门生死恋)1.36m ($0.22m)+172.0%5,91041,7811.86m ($0.30m)
10. The Floating Shadow(浮出水面的影子)1.18m ($0.19m)New4,59038,5241.18m ($0.19m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1587)

Friday, February 17, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (02/06 - 02/12): Strong start by Journey 2 could not prevent Mission: Impossible 4 from 3-peating

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)134.5m ($21.36m)-44.2%91,1063,878,316476.7m ($75.56m)
2. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)95m ($15.09m)New38,6872,244,80195m ($15.09m)
3. I Do(我愿意)19.7m ($3.13m)New19,796585,61219.7m ($3.13m)
4. Romancing in Thin Air(高海拔之恋Ⅱ)11.6m ($1.84m)New20,147349,81211.6m ($1.84m)
5. Life Without Principle(夺命金)10.5m ($1.67m)-25.0%22,176337,18624.5m ($3.89m)
6. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows(大侦探福尔摩斯2:诡影游戏)10.2m ($1.62m)-54.3%13,942305,297184.5m ($29.21m)
7. The Viral Factor(逆战)6.7m ($1.06m)-61.9%11,736206,090126.9m ($20.06m)
8. Perfect Two(新天生一对)4.6m ($0.73m)-66.2%10,183148,86749.2m ($7.78m)
9. Fan Ju Ye Feng Kuang(饭局也疯狂)4.4m ($0.70m)-59.3%7,416140,48543m ($5.8m)
10. All's Well, Ends Well 2012(八星报喜2012)4m ($0.64m)-73.0%8,114125,86579.6m ($12.6m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 17 - 20): Ghost Rider 2, This Means War, The Secret World of Arrietty

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Vow28.0-32.0%
2. Safe House27.0-32.8%
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island26.0-4.9%
4. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance23.0$7,246 PTA
5. This Means War17.0$5,331 PTA
6. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D)11.5-48.8%
7. Chronicle8.8-27.2%
8. The Secret World of Arrietty7.3$4,796 PTA
9. The Women in Black7.0-30.7%
10. The Grey3.7-26.7%

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (01/30 - 02/05): Mission Impossible 4 surged to enjoy one of the best weeks ever

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)241m ($38.22m)+138.1%113,3786,911,385342.2m ($54.2m)
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows(大侦探福尔摩斯2:诡影游戏)22.3m ($3.54m)-67.2%22,307668,064174.3m ($27.59m)
3. The Viral Factor(逆战)17.6m ($2.79m)-68.3%20,571534,467120.2m ($19m)
4. All's Well, Ends Well 2012(八星报喜2012)14.8m ($2.35m)-68.4%19,353462,35575.6m ($11.96m)
5. Life Without Principle(夺命金)14m ($2.22m)New19,137435,05214m ($2.22m)
6. Perfect Two(新天生一对)13.6m ($2.16m)-56.1%20,505431,74644.6m ($7.05m)
7. Mission Incredible: Adventures On The Dragon's Trail(喜羊羊与灰太狼之开心闯龙年)12.5m ($1.98m)-66.2%22,938425,459160.5m ($25.39m)
8. Fan Ju Ye Feng Kuang(饭局也疯狂)10.8m ($1.71m)-61.2%13,310345,48938.6m ($5.1m)
9. The Great Magician(大魔术师)9.6m ($1.52m)-76.3%11,968287,856169.3m ($26.78m)
10. The Monkey King 3D(大闹天宫3D)5.1m ($0.81m)-63.0%6,411151,60547.6m ($7.53m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1586)

Friday, February 10, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 10 - 12): The Vow, Safe House, Star Wars: Episode I, Journey 2

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Vow43.0$14,537 PTA
2. Safe House30.0$9,622 PTA
3. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D)17.0$6,403 PTA
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island15.0$4,323 PTA
5. Chronicle12.0-45.5%
6. The Women in Black11.0-47.3%
7. Big Miracle5.5-29.1%
8. The Grey5.3-43.0%
9. The Descendants3.4-25.3%
10. One for the Money2.6-50.1%

1. The breakout signs for The Vow are everywhere: Major Theater Chain tracking coming in way higher than ReelSource's (34 vs. high-teens), averaging 50K tweets per day for the last three days, accounting for 40% of the ticket sales at Fandango even with the presence of an ultra-fanboy film in The Phantom Menace. Remember Dear John opened on the less-friendly Superbowl frame, and a normal non-NFL Sunday hold would have pushed its already impressive opening even higher to around $34m. With better tracking, more proximity to Valentine's Day, and a couple years of ticket inflation, a $40m start is well within reach for The Vow.

2. Safe House has the feel of The Book of Eli, which opened to $32.8m with some help from MLK holiday. This January has shown that the 18-25 years old crowd is coming back to theaters, and along with the usual audience that would show up to see Denzel Washington kicking ass, it should be enough for Washington's 3rd $30m+ opener of his career.

3. The Phantom Menace re-release, in 3D this time, is selling well on Fandango, but I am not convinced it will translate that nicely to the actual gross. Given the fanatic nature of its fans, the advance online ticket sales will be disproportionally skewed comparing other regular films, even previous 3D re-releases. It was mentioned in HSX that NRG survey showed it was tracking in between the re-releases of The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, but those two are Disney animated films, a far different creature. Avatar: Special Edition, for example, accounted for 14% of advance sales the day before its release and only opened to $4m. The Phantom Menace will have a lot more theaters, but I don't see a $20m weekend.

4. In one of those rare occasions, the film with the most amount of theaters in a 4-openers weekend also appears to be the weakest, thanks to the lukewarm responses 3D family-oriented sequels have seen since last year. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island won't be able to break that trend, not on this highly competitive weekend and not with another 3D film that will attract some of the similar audience.

Monday, February 6, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (01/23 - 01/29): blockbuster start for Mission: Impossible 4 during the Lunar New Year frame

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)101.2m ($15.98m) (Opened on Sat)New33,0312,837,118101.2m ($15.98m)
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows(大侦探福尔摩斯2:诡影游戏)68m ($10.74m)+3.0%38,6971,998,236152m ($24.05m)
3. The Viral Factor(逆战)55.6m ($8.78m)+18.8%37,4601,647,895102.4m ($16.19m)
4. All's Well, Ends Well 2012(八星报喜2012)46.8m ($7.39m)+234.3%35,2541,406,67260.8m ($9.61m)
5. The Great Magician(大魔术师)40.5m ($6.39m)-9.2%27,0001,172,553159.7m ($25.26m)
6. Mission Incredible: Adventures On The Dragon's Trail(喜羊羊与灰太狼之开心闯龙年)37m ($5.84m)-2.6%35,3441,187,419148m ($23.41m)
7. Perfect Two(新天生一对)31m ($4.89m)New28,595953,25931m ($4.89m)
8. Fan Ju Ye Feng Kuang(饭局也疯狂)27.8m ($4.39m)New22,508881,14127.8m ($4.39m)
9. The Monkey King 3D(大闹天宫3D)13.8m ($2.18m)+36.6%9,642378,70442.5m ($6.72m)
10. Hu Tao Jia Zi 2(胡桃夹子2)11.8m ($1.86m)+25.5%9,138331,27421.2m ($3.35m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1579)

Friday, February 3, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 3 - 5): The Women in Black, Chronicle, Big Miracle

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Women in Black16.0$5,604 PTA
2. Chronicle13.0$4,472 PTA
3. The Grey9.0-54.2%
4. Big Miracle7.0$3,289 PTA
5. One for the Money6.0-47.9%
6. Red Tails5.8-44.1%
7. Underworld Awakening5.6-54.7%
8. The Descendants4.5-29.7%
9. Man on a Ledge4.3-46.3%
10. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close4.0-42.7%

(And Super Bowl prediction: Patriots - 27, Giants - 24)