Sunday, December 30, 2012

Thoughts on Jan 4th Openers

Texas Chainsaw 3D


Pros
1.  The horror movies have consistently enjoyed good openings for the early January frame in the last decade:

2012: The Devil Inside - $33.7m in 2,285 theaters
2009: The Unborn - $19.8m in 2,357
2008: One Missed Call - $12.5m in 2,240
2006: Hostel - $19.6m in 2,195
2005: White Noise - $24.1m in 2,261

The five films averaged $21.9m for the opening weekend and $9,665 per-theater-average. If we removed the two extremes, the other three averaged $21.2m and $9,326 PTA, not much different.

2. The last Texas Chainsaw Massacre movie opened to $18.5m in 2006, which would adjust to $22.4m today.

Cons
1. The last TCM movie was more than 6 years ago, and it did see 39.3% decline in attendance from the previous one in 2003.

2. Steep decline in admissions happened to other horror franchises as well: Halloween II (2009) from Halloween (2007) - -42.8%; Paranormal Activites 4 from 3 - -44.5%; Saw VI from V - -55.7%.

My thoughts: It will see a decline in attendance again from the 2006 film, but 3D will alleviate the drop some. A 40% decline in admissions will put the opening weekend at around $16m, although $20m is not out of the question given the past performance of Jan horror films.

HSX analysis: TXCM3.OW is currently priced at $10.86, and TXCM3's price would translate to a $10.1m opening. Both seem way too low to me, with minimal risk on the downside. A $10m start would mean an over 60% loss in admissions, an extremely unlikely scenario.

The Impossible and Promised Land


Both are expanding to nationwide this weekend, and although I do not expect either to make much noise, between the two, The Impossible is in a little better state after their respective returns so far in limited release. On its second weekend, The Impossible averaged $12,333 per theater in 15 locations, while Promised Land opened to a $7,600 PTA in 25 theaters. If Promised Land indeed expands to 1,500 locations as The Hollywood Reporter suggested, I cannot see a per-theater-average higher than $2,500 given how PTA generally behaves with respect to theater count change in the past. An opening in the $2-3m range will be where I put it.

HSX Analysis: With PRMSD.OW at $7.46 and PRMSD at $16.95 (translating to a $5.57m OW), both are surely overpriced and will continue to come down in the next few days. Without knowing where the theater count for The Impossible will land, it is hard to pin down its exact potential this weekend, but with IMPSB at $8.47, the upside and downside potentials are both small.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Some Update on China Box Office

First Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!

The last several weeks have been quite exciting in China on the box office front. First it's Life of Pi. In 32 days, it had grossed 567.8m yuan, or $90.8m, 19% more than what it has earned so far in the U.S. Then there is the even more jaw-dropping performance from Lost in Thailand, the sequel to the word-of-mouth hit Lost on Journey from 2010. It set a new opening record for a domestic release with 310m yuan ($49.6m) in 5 days, then on the second week, it saw a 20.8% uptick for the weekly gross, a very difficult task when a film opened on Wednesday. In fact, its second week of 374.4m yuan is the highest ever for a sophomore frame, beating Transformers 362m. It also set an all-time record for admissions in a week with 11.75m, surpassing Titanic 3D's previous mark of 10.5m. After just 12 days, its total stood at 684.4m yuan, or $109.5m, inches away from breaking Painted Skin 2's record. With holidays coming up, 1b yuan ($160m) is for certain, and there is no telling how high the film may go.

Between the releases of those two films, we also have Feng Xiaogang's new film Back to 1942, which was the overwhelming favorite to win December. It still grossed a very respectable 364.4m yuan ($58.3m), but is completely overshadowed by the other performances. Last week Jackie Chan released his latest film CZ12 and set a personal best with a 225.6m yuan ($36.1m) start in 4 days. It is also the first Chinese non-sequel to break 200m yuan in the opening week. It could be looking at a $100m+ total as well.

Here is the current top 10 list for 2012 (CZ12 and Back to 1942 should bump Journey 2 out of the top 10 in the end):

1. Titanic 3D - 975.9m yuan ($154.8m)
2. Painted Skin 2 - 726.4m ($115.5m)
3. Lost in Thailand (*) - 684.4m ($109.5m)
4. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol - 646.3m ($102.5m)
5. The Avengers - 576.0m ($91.6m)
6. Life of Pi (*) - 567.8m ($90.8m)
7. Men in Black III - 519.2m ($82.6m)
8. Ice Age: Continental Drift - 457.8m ($72.8m)
9. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - 376.5m ($60.0m)
10. Back to 1942 (*) - 364.4m ($58.3m)

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Welcome Oliver Letian Xia!


A picture says it all. :-) Our son, Oliver Letian Xia(夏乐天), arrived at 11:44pm on 9/14, and I officially started the life of fatherhood. It has been fantastic so far, but it is also clear to me, something I already anticipated when we first found out he is coming into this word, that I don't really have time for other activities with Oliver being the center of my universe now. So I'm going to retire from doing weekly box office predictions, here on this blog or anywhere else. I first started following box office closely in late 2000 when Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon burst onto the scene and began participating in Box Office Mojo's Derby game in 2004. It has been a fantastic experience all these years, and I got to know and become friends with a lot of great people because of the common passion. I'm forever thankful for you all. Although I won't be doing regular weekend box office predictions again, when time permits, I may write more general pieces such as how summer films will do just to see how well my feeling turns out when forcing to provide them early with less concrete data. Box office is just fun any way you slice it. But until then, I'll give my full attention to the lovely Oliver. Thank you again!

Friday, September 7, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 7 - 9): The Words, The Cold Light of Day

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Words7.5$2,678 PTA
2. The Possession7.0-60.5%
3. Lawless5.5-45.0%
4. The Expendables 24.5-50.2%
5. ParaNorman4.0-39.1%
6. The Dark Knight Rises3.8-37.9%
7. The Odd Life of Timothy Green3.7-41.1%
8. The Bourne Legacy3.5-51.6%
9. 2016 Obama's America3.0-46.5%
10. Hope Springs3.0-36.1%
-. The Cold Light of Day1.9$1,257 PTA


Friday, August 31, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 31 - Sep 3): Lawless, The Possession, Oogieloves In The BIG Balloon Adventure

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Lawless12.3$4,259 PTA
2. The Expendables 211.5-14.3%
3. The Possession10.5$3,729 PTA
4. ParaNorman10.0+15.8%
5. The Bourne Legacy8.5-9.0%
6. 2016 Obama's America8.5+30.6%
7. The Odd Life of Timothy Green8.0+12.3%
8. The Dark Knight Rises7.5+3.8%
9. Hope Springs7.0+22.3%
10. The Campaign6.5-13.0%
-. Oogieloves In The BIG Balloon Adventure1.1$509 PTA


Friday, August 24, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 24 - 26): Premium Rush, 2016 Obama's America, Hit & Run, The Apparition

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Expendables 214.3-50.0%
2. The Bourne Legacy10.0-41.4%
3. ParaNorman8.5-39.7%
4. The Campaign8.0-39.1%
5. The Dark Knight Rises7.3-33.7%
6. The Odd Life of Timothy Green7.2-33.5%
7. Premium Rush6.5$2,882 PTA
8. Hope Springs6.2-32.0%
9. 2016 Obama's America5.5$5,046 PTA
10. Sparkle5.0-57.1%
11. Hit & Run2.9$1,075 PTA
-. The Apparition1.9$2,346 PTA


Friday, August 17, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 17 - 19): The Expendables 2, Sparkle, The Odd Life of Timothy Green, ParaNorman

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Expendables 235.0$10,555 PTA
2. The Bourne Legacy15.0-60.7%
3. Sparkle13.0$5,793 PTA
4. The Campaign12.5-53.0%
5. The Odd Life of Timothy Green12.5$4,811 PTA
6. ParaNorman12.0$3,500 PTA
7. The Dark Knight Rises11.7-38.4%
8. Hope Springs10.5-28.3%
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days3.9-51.3%
10. Ice Age: Continental Drift3.5-45.1%


Friday, August 10, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 10 - 12): The Bourne Legacy, The Campaign, Hope Springs, Nitro Circus the Movie

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Bourne Legacy35.0$9,343 PTA
2. The Campaign28.0$8,736 PTA
3. The Dark Knight Rises20.0-44.0%
4. Hope Springs13.5$5,718 PTA
5. Total Recall10.0-60.9%
6. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days8.0-45.3%
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift5.5-36.1%
8. Ted3.9-30.9%
9. The Watch3.0-54.0%
10. Step Up Revolution2.9-51.1%
-. Nitro Circus the Movie 3D1.9$2,375 PTA


Friday, August 3, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 3 - 5): Total Recall, Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Dark Knight Rises39.0-37.2%
2. Total Recall24.0$6,665 PTA
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days21.0$6,191 PTA
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift9.0-32.6%
5. The Watch6.5-49.0%
6. Step Up Revolution5.3-54.8%
7. Ted5.1-30.6%
8. The Amazing Spider-Man4.5-32.8%
9. Brave3.0-30.3%
10. Magic Mike1.5-42.7%


Sunday, July 29, 2012

Early thoughts on the upcoming weekend's openers

Even before the tragedy in Aurora, I wasn't feeling bullish on the Total Recall remake. The project seems pointless and has not generated much buzz. Now the environment is more challenging. IMO, the shooting did not necessarily make people afraid of going to theaters, but rather dampened the enthusiasm of watching a movie with friends or families a great deal. Going to movies is meant to be an escape, and with such heavy event associated with the activity, it requires some time before we get back to normal, especially when there is the Olympics where people could relax and follow at home. Not surprisingly, London 2012 is setting rating records for a non-American Olympics. As for Total Recall, the number of user ratings at Flixster/Rottentomatoes currently stands at just over 28K, a decent figure, but the rate of increase this week has been slow. I'm seeing a $25m or lower opening weekend.

The first two Diary of a Wimpy Kid adaptations opened to $22.1m and $23.8m respectively, and no reason to believe the third one would deviate much from them. It currently has 8.7K user ratings at Flixster, a healthy number as family films tend to see a much lower ratio in term of ratings vs. OW (most are around 600, meaning 12K would translate to a $20m start). The family movies have also rebounded better than average this past weekend, with Braves and Ice Age both declined less than 35%. Look for a $20m+ start for Dog Days, and it is certainly possible to see it beat Total Recall next weekend.

Friday, July 27, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 27 - 29)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Dark Knight Rises60.0-62.7%
2. The Watch14.0$4,419 PTA
3. Ice Age: Continental Drift14.0-31.4%
4. Step Up Revolution11.0$4,285 PTA
5. The Amazing Spider-Man7.0-35.7%
6. Ted6.5-35.1%
7. Brave4.0-33.6%
8. Magic Mike2.7-37.1%
9. Savages2.0-41.2%
10. Moonrise Kingdom1.4-23.6%


1. The Dark Knight Rises' dailies so far have not been promising for even an average second weekend hold. If we apply the Wednesday-to-second-weekend multipliers for past July blockbuster releases to The Dark Knight Rises, it could be looking at following numbers for this frame (I listed the new competitions in parentheses):

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 (Cowboys vs. Aliens, The Smurfs, Crazy Stupid Love) - $53.2m
The Dark Knight (Step Brothers, The X-Files: I Want to Believe) - $56.3m
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Little Man, You Me and Dupree) - $60.7m
Captain America: The First Avenger (Rise of the Planet of the Apes, The Change-Up) - $60.7m

So a high of $60.7m and a low of $53.2m. I don't see it approaching the low end since Harry Potter was more naturally frontloaded and faced more serious competition, but beating the high end will be difficult too considering Pirates of the Caribbean had the most weekend-friendly demographics, and it only increased 50.1% on Friday. A 60%+ decline is very highly.

2. Not feeling The Watch at all. The buzz is low, the reviews are terrible, the number of Flixster/RT ratings is only at around 21K, and it has not yet entered the top 5 of Fandango's sales chart. A That's My Boy type of start would not surprise me.

3. The Step Up franchise has seen its opening weekend getting weaker with each release, and the 4th one won't be any exception. The last installment saw a 34% decline in admissions from the previous film on its opening frame, and another such decline would put this one at $10.7m.


Friday, July 20, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 20 - 22): The Dark Knight Rises

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Dark Knight Rises204.0$46,322 PTA
2. Ice Age: Continental Drift24.0-48.5%
3. The Amazing Spider-Man15.0-56.7%
4. Ted12.0-46.5%
5. Brave6.5-41.8%
6. Magic Mike5.7-36.8%
7. Savages4.3-54.2%
8. Moonrise Kingdom2.7-27.1%
9. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection2.3-58.8%
10. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted1.7-53.7%


Final prediction breakdown for The Dark Knight Rises (upped a little from the earlier set):

Midnight - $35m
Friday w/o midnight - $60m
Friday w/ midnight - $95m
Saturday - $58m (-3.3% from Friday w/o midnight)
Sunday - $51m (-12.1%)
Opening Weekend - $204m
Domestic Total - $625m (3.06 multiplier, 3.49 if we exclude midnight from both OW and total)


Sunday, July 15, 2012

Here we go: The Dark Knight Rises' Opening Weekend Predictions

There is basically one question on pretty much everyone's mind: will The Dark Knight Rises become the 5th film in the Batman franchise to set a new opening weekend record? It seemed to be a foregone conclusion until a little more than two months ago, when The Avengers made the task much tougher with its out-of-this-world $207.4m start. By comparison, The Dark Knight Rises has no 3D help, is 23 minutes longer, and will enter a frame where the holdovers will still be making $70m+ combined instead of the $51m total The Avengers faced. Some may also argue that the tragic death of Heath Ledger in early 2008 benefited The Dark Knight and helped to create a perfect marketing storm. However, there are factors favoring TDKR as well:

1. Its midnight will be significantly bigger than what The Avengers made ($18.7m). The reasons are straight-forward: we are in July, where all schools are off, and The Dark Knight itself grossed $18.5m from midnight 4 years ago, at a time when the midnight phenomenon had not really taken off yet.

2. The IMAX gross. The Dark Knight had $6.3m out of its $158.4m opening from IMAX and set a new record for the format along the way. The popularity and availability of IMAX have only grown since then. Two weeks ago, The Amazing Spider-Man saw 10.4% of its opening-week gross ($14.3m out of $137m) coming from IMAX. The Dark Knight Rises could easily match the percentage given this truly is the one movie to see in such format, with nearly half of it shot on the super high-resolution film. That means we could see a whopping $20m from IMAX alone on the opening weekend.

3. In general, the market has a bigger capacity in July than in May. When The Dark Knight opened, it broke the OW record even though there were two other new wide releases, and they and the holdovers combined for $102m. That weekend from 4 years ago was bigger than The Avengers' weekend even without adjusting to inflation. The Dark Knight's frame would adjust to $287m today, and with no other openers and the holdovers looking at no more than $80m combined, the market is plenty empty for TDKR.

So what is my exact feeling? It'll be close, but the more likely scenario is that The Dark Knight Rises will lose by a small margin for the opening while winning by a similar margin in total, as the summer weekdays should benefit it greatly.

Here is The Dark Knight's daily breakdown for its opening weekend, adjusted to inflation:

Midnight - $20.41m
Friday w/ midnight - $74.09m
Saturday - $52.56m
Sunday - $48.09m (-8.5%!)

Here is what I'm thinking would happen to The Dark Knight Rises:

Midnight - $35m
Friday w/o midnight - $59m
Friday w/ midnight - $94m
Saturday - $57m (-3.4% from Friday w/o midnight)
Sunday - $49m (-14.0%)
Opening Weekend - $200m

Friday, July 13, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 13 - 15): Ice Age 4

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Ice Age: Continental Drift43.0$11,082 PTA
2. The Amazing Spider-Man32.0-48.4%
3. Ted22.0-31.7%
4. Brave11.0-43.9%
5. Magic Mike9.0-42.5%
6. Savages7.5-53.2%
7. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection5.0-50.9%
8. Katy Perry: Part of Me3.9-45.4%
9. Madagascar 33.7-50.8%
10. Moonrise Kingdom3.1-31.4%


The signs are not looking good for Ice Age 4. It did not enter Fandango's top 5 sales list until Thursday. Its number of Flixster/RottenTomatoes ratings trailed Madagascar 3 by 20% as of Thursday night (26K vs. 32K+), and unlike the latter, which saw the number surge from 14K on the previous Saturday, the pace of increase for Ice Age 4 has been much quieter this week. A sub-$50m opening appears all but certain, and I would not be surprised if the film struggles to break $40m.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

China Box Office Summary for the First Half of 2012

China's box office saw record-breaking numbers again in the first half of the year, but it was also completely dominated by Hollywood releases. Overall, 141 films were released in theaters and grossed 7.74 billion yuan in total; however, the 38 imports accounted for a whopping 65% of the gross. In fact, the top 12 Hollywood releases alone combined for 4.43 billion yuan, or 57% of the overall total. With the release of Painted Skin 2, which had grossed 527.3m yuan ($83m) in 11 days, the domestic films are looking for a big comeback in the second half, but for the first half, the stage had certainly belonged to the imports.


Top 12 Hollywood releases during the first half of 2012

1. Titanic - 975m yuan ($154.6m)
2. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol - 648m yuan ($102.7m)
3. The Avengers - 572m yuan ($90.5m)
4. MIB 3 - 506m yuan ($79.5m)
5. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island - 364m yuan ($57.8m)
6. Battleship - 316m yuan ($50.1m)
7. John Carter - 261m yuan ($41.3m)
8. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows - 184m yuan ($29.2m)
9. Wrath of the Titans - 165m yuan ($26.2m)
10. The Hunger Games - 164m yuan ($25.8m)
11. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - 161m yuan ($25.3m)
12. War Horse - 117m yuan ($18.5m)

Source: http://www.suancaomei.com/news/2083.html


Thursday, July 5, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Amazing Spider-Man65.0 (3-day) / 140.0 (6-day)$15,053 PTA
2. Ted31.0-43.0%
3. Brave20.0-41.3%
4. Magic Mike15.0-61.7%
5. Katy Perry: Part of Me11.0 (3-day) / 14.0 (4-day)$4,029 PTA
6. Savages10.0$3,807 PTA
7. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection10.0-60.0%
8. Madagascar 37.0-40.9%
9. Moonrise Kingdom3.5-29.0%
10. To Rome with Love2.9+318.9%


Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Deducting The Amazing Spider-Man's Opening Week from its Tuesday #

Let's suppose The Amazing Spider-Man earns x amount from Tuesday, including midnight as that is the number media will report, we could use the multipliers from the first Transformers, which faced the same calendar when it opened in 2007, to deduct its possible opening week figure. Here is the calculation:


For Transformers
Tuesday-to-6-day multiplier, not including Monday night's preview: (155.405412-8.801025) / 27.851016 = 5.264

Apply to Spider-Man
Assuming Tuesday gross with midnight is x, the same multiplier would put 6 days at
    (x - 7.5) * 5.264 + 7.5 = 5.264 * x - 7.5 * 4.264 = 5.264 * x - 31.98

Apply to Various x's
x = 27, 6-day = 110.15
x = 30, 6-day = 125.94
x = 33, 6-day = 141.73
x = 37, 6-day = 162.79

Of course, Spider-Man may not follow a similar pattern at all, but this hopefully could provide a general idea on where the 6 days could land once the Tuesday number is known.

If you are playing HSX, I also have a similar calculation posted here for the opening adjust price. Basically the calculation comes out to be 9.56 * x - 64.2.


Monday, July 2, 2012

The Amazing Spider-Man Opening Week Predictions

My final predictions for The Amazing Spider-Man's opening 6 days:

Midnight: $4m
Tuesday w/o midnight: $21m
Tuesday w/ midnight: $25m
Wednesday: $22m (-12%, +5% from Tuesday without midnight)
Thursday: $14m (-36%)
Friday: $18m (+28.6%)
Saturday: $21m (+16.7%)
Sunday: $18m (-14.3%)

Opening Weekend: $57m
Opening 6-day: $118m

Friday, June 29, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 29 - Jul 1): Ted, Magic Mike, Madea's Witness Protection, People Like Us

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Ted38.0$11,732 PTA
2. Magic Mike37.0$12,628 PTA
3. Brave35.0-47.2%
4. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection24.0$11,106 PTA
5. Madagascar 311.0-44.2%
6. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter7.0-57.1%
7. Moonrise Kingdom4.7+38.5%
8. The Avengers4.6-35.9%
9. People Like Us4.3$2,092 PTA
10. Snow White and the Huntsman4.3-46.8%


1. I'm feeling bullish on Ted due to many positive signs. Its Flixster/RottenTomatoes user ratings had jumped from around 31,000 votes to over 47K by Thursday night, with a beautifully accelerating daily pattern. It is averaging over 10K tweets a day this week, and being able to enter the top 5 of Fandango's ticket sales list on Wednesday is excellent for a R-rated comedy. With the lack of success for the genre this year, especially when comparing to last summer, we are due for one to break out, and Ted fits the profile quite nicely. The word-of-mouth looks to be good as well, so we may be looking at a potential $150m+ success.

2. The advance sales for Magic Mike are indeed eye-popping, and it starts to remind me of Sex and the City, another film where older females were buying group tickets in droves ahead of time. On the other hand, like Sex and the City, Magic Mike should be super Friday-frontloaded, as it will similarly be all about ladies-night-out on Friday night. I expect it to win Friday with $16-17m, but have a much worse IM in the 2.1-2.3 range.

3. There is a small chance that for the first time ever, we could see 4 $30m+ films in one weekend, but the buzz for the latest Tyler Perry's Madea endeavor hasn't really picked up to the point where it is likely to happen. Still, if the top 2 openers perform well, we could be looking at a $180m combined for the top 12 films, quite healthy for this frame and making us forget G.I. Joe 2 was originally slated for this weekend until a month ago. With movies targeting different demos doing well at the same time, it would provide another concern for The Amazing Spider-Man, which prospect appears dimmer by the day with its tepid advance sales, low tweets count, and the general lack of buzz.

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Early thoughts on The Amazing Spider-Man

To me, the three franchises - Spider-Man, Shrek, and Pirates of the Caribbean - are always closely linked to each other in term of box office analysis. It is not just because their third films all came out within a month of each other in 2007, but also that I have been able to predict a film's box office potential from one franchise based on the previous performance of one from another franchise with good success (the one I'm most fond of is the $135m opening weeknd prediction on Dead Man's Chest after an analysis using Shrek 2). So the main question for The Amazing Spider-Man, as the fourth installment of its franchise, is that if it could avoid the fate bestowed on Shrek Forever After and On Stranger Tides, where they saw a decline of 26% and 22% from their respective predecessor's totals. The Amazing Spider-Man is somewhat different in that the film is more of a reboot with a new set of cast, but the question remains valid, and my feeling is a similar decline is in store.

There are a lot of similarities between The Amazing Spider-Man, Shrek Forever After, and On Stranger Tides. All of them are 3D, while none of their previous films is. Their previous films, the third one of each franchise, all received lukewarm word-of-mouth. Spider-Man is more similar to Shrek in that their first two films both gathered excellent word-of-mouth, unlike Pirates of Caribbean where the general reviews fell off from the 2nd film on. On the other hand, Pirates' box office feels a little more resistent to mediocre reviews, as indicated by the good run Dead Man's Chest enjoyed and the smaller drop off On Stranger Tides experienced. Overall, I feel The Amazing Spider-Man will see a decline in total that is closer to what Shrek Forever After had, which would put it at $250m.

From $250m total, we could then try to deduct how much of it will come from the opening week. Two good comparisons would be Transformers and Spider-Man 2. The former was facing the same calendar 5 years with Independence Day falling on Wednesday and opened on the exact same day (Jul 3rd, although it ended up pushing the release up another 4 hours); it grossed $155.4m over its first 6 days, 48.7% of its eventual total. The latter also opened on the holiday frame and had a 6-day start of $180.1m, 48.2% of its total. Both of those films enjoyed good word-of-mouth, so even though the early reviews for The Amazing Spider-Man are quite positive, I do not expect the percentage for the first 6 days to be lower for it. If anything, it would likely be a good bit higher with The Dark Knight Rises staring right at its face in two weeks, something neither of the other two had to deal with. A 52% would translate to a $130m 6-day start.

If we would like to break down the opening week further, Transformers, a non-sequel, saw $70.5m of its $155.4m (45.4%) coming from the weekend. The Amazing Spider-Man should be slightly more frontloaded, especially with the midnight culture is a lot more intense now than 5 years ago. A 42% would put its weekend at around $55m.

So my current thought:

Opening Tues-to-Thurs - $75m
Opening Weekend - $55m
Opening 6-day - $130m
Domestic Total - $250m


Friday, June 22, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 22 - 24): Brave, Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter, Seeking a Friend for the End of the World

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Brave58.5$14,049 PTA
2. Madagascar 320.5-39.8%
3. Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter15.0$4,829 PTA
4. Prometheus8.9-57.0%
5. Snow White and the Huntsman8.0-39.7%
6. Rock of Ages7.5-48.1%
7. MIB 36.3-37.3%
8. The Avengers6.2-30.4%
9. That's My Boy6.0-55.4%
10. Seeking a Friend for the End of the World4.5$2,781 PTA


Friday, June 15, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 15 - 17): Rock of Ages, That's My Boy

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Madagascar 334.0-43.6%
2. Rock of Ages26.0$7,536 PTA
3. Prometheus22.0-56.9%
4. That's My Boy21.0$6,931 PTA
5. Snow White and the Huntsman11.5-50.1%
6. MIB 39.0-35.2%
7. The Avengers8.5-24.4%
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel2.6-20.4%
9. What to Expect When You're Expecting1.7-39.0%
10. Moonrise Kingdom1.7+9.0%


Friday, June 8, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 8 - 10): Madagascar 3, Prometheus, Moonrise Kingdom

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Madagascar 362.0$14,561 PTA
2. Prometheus50.0$14,732 PTA
3. Snow White and the Huntsman26.3-53.2%
4. MIB 315.0-46.6%
5. The Avengers12.2-40.4%
5. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel3.3-26.4%
7. What to Expect When You're Expecting2.6-41.0%
8. Battleship2.4-52.9%
9. The Dictator2.2-53.2%
10. Moonrise Kingdom2.0+128.1%


1. On the Twitter front, Prometheus has been receiving about 80% more tweets than Madagascar 3 so far this week, but the ratio for Madagascar 3 should be way lower given it is a family film while Prometheus is a R-rated sci-fi horror with built-in fanbase. Madagascar 3 is also experiencing a much better positive-to-negative ratio between the two (over 10:1 vs. around 5:1).

2. The number of user ratings at Flixster/Rottentomatoes for Prometheus was at about 34K last Saturday, way ahead of Madagascar 3's 14K. However, since then, the latter has seen its number soar to over 32,000, while Prometheus's figure has remained stagnant (there seems to be an issue updating the number today, but it still only increased 3-4K more in several days). This indicates that Prometheus is not getting much fresh interest outside its core fanbase as we move closer to the release.

3. The midnight performance by Prometheus will be strong, probably around $5m. However the midnight will account for a good chunk of its Friday gross. It will still likely win Friday over Madagascar 3, but not by much - something like $21m vs. $19m, then the much better internal multiplier will allow the animated film to easily win the next two days of the weekend.

4. This weekend more or less reminds me of the June weekend four years ago, when both family-oriented Wall-E and R-rated Wanted opened to over $50m. The holdovers could also mirror that weekend's result, albeit more top heavy with one film earning in the 20s, two in the 10s, and the rest low single digits.

5. Moonrise Kingdom is following similar expansion pattern as what The Darjeeling Limited had, but with a much healthier result so far. The Darjeeling Limited saw its per-theater-average dropped 61.4% on its third weekend when expanding from 19 to 95 locations. A similar hold for Moonrise Kingdom, which is expanding from 16 to 96 theaters, would put its weekend take at around $2m.

Friday, June 1, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 1 - 3): Snow White and the Huntsman, For Greater Glory

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Snow White and the Huntsman41.5$11,002 PTA
2. MIB 325.0-54.2%
3. The Avengers21.0-42.8%
4. Battleship5.5-50.2%
5. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel5.0-21.7%
6. The Dictator4.9-47.2%
7. What to Expect When You're Expecting4.5-36.9%
8. Dark Shadows4.0-46.7%
9. Chernobyl Diaries2.9-63.5%
10. For Greater Glory1.5$1,982 PTA


Friday, May 25, 2012

Memorial Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 25 - 28): MIB 3, Chernobyl Diaries, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. MIB 360.0$14,124 PTA
2. The Avengers48.0-13.7%
3. Battleship18.0-29.5%
4. The Dictator11.0-36.9%
5. Chernobyl Diaries10.0$4,110 PTA
6. Dark Shadows9.0-28.5%
7. What to Expect When You're Expecting8.0-24.1%
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel7.5+132.2%
9. The Hunger Games2.6-11.9%
10. Think Like a Man1.3-51.0%


Friday, May 18, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 18 - 20): Battleship, What to Expect When You're Expecting, The Dictator

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Avengers57.0-44.7%
2. Battleship25.0$6,775 PTA
3. What to Expect When You're Expecting20.0$6,620 PTA
4. The Dictator14.0 / 21.0 (5-day)$4,654 PTA
5. Dark Shadows14.0-52.8%
6. Think Like a Man3.5-39.8%
7. The Hunger Games2.9-35.6%
8. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel2.1-21.4%
9. The Lucky One1.9-53.7%
10. The Pirates! Band of Misfits1.6-49.1%


Friday, May 11, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 11 - 13): Dark Shadows, Girl in Progress

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Avengers105.0-49.4%
2. Dark Shadows32.0$8,522 PTA
3. Think Like a Man5.5-32.1%
4. The Hunger Games4.4-21.3%
5. The Lucky One4.1-23.6%
6. The Pirates! Band of Misfits4.0-27.3%
7. The Five-Year Engagement3.5-30.4%
8. Girl in Progress1.9$5,900 PTA
9. Chimpanzee1.7-31.6%
10. The Raven1.6-39.3%


With only one new wide release and Mother's Day on Sunday, we should see great holds across the board. The recent Groupon deal for Girl in Progress should also help its per-theater-average.

Monday, May 7, 2012

Projecting The Avengers' dailies and its eventual total

All I could say for the past three days is WOW! I didn't see $180m coming, let alone $200m, or $207.4m to be more precise. This is what makes following box office fun. It's getting rare to be truly awed by a number or a sequence of numbers with all the information available nowadays, so when it happens, we should treasure it deeply.

We are in uncharted territories, but I will still try to make some predictions on the potential trajectory of The Avenger's run, using past examples of Spider-Man, Iron Man, The Dark Knight, and others. No two runs are exactly similar, but previous data is still useful; e.g. as The Dark Knight and Spider-Man showed, when you have huge amount of soldouts that pushed business into future days, the film will show great initial Monday hold comparing to other movies of similar release dates before getting back to the norm in subsequent Mondays. So without furthur ado, here is what I am thinking:

Weekdays #1:
Mon (5/7): $20m (-65.0%)
Tues (5/8): $18m (-10.0%)
Wed (5/9): $14.5m (-19.4%)
Thurs (5/10): $13m (-10.3%)

Weekend #2:
Fri (5/11): $30m (+130.8%)
Sat (5/12): $44m (+46.7%)
Sun (5/13): $31m (-29.5%) 
2nd weekend: $105m (-49.4%; -44.4% w/o midnight)
Total after 2nd weekend: $378m

Weekdays #2:
Mon (5/14): $8m (-74.2%)
Tues (5/15): $7.6m (-5.0%)
Wed (5/16): $6.5m (-14.5%)
Thurs (5/17): $6.3m (-3.1%)

Weekend #3:
Fri (5/18): $15m (+138.1%)
Sat (5/19): $23.3m (+55.3%)
Sun (5/20): $16.3m (-30.0%) 
3rd weekend: $54.6m (-48.0%)
Total after 3rd weekend: $461m

Weekdays #3:
Mon (5/21): $5.5m (-66.3%)
Tue (5/22): $4.2m (-23.6%)
Wed (5/23): $3.6m (-14.3%)
Thurs (5/24): $3.5m( -2.8%)

Weekend #4 (Memorial Weekend):
Fri (5/25): $9.5m (+171.4%)
Sat (5/26): $14m (+47.4%)
Sun (5/27): $13m (-7.1%)
Mon (5/28): $10m (-23.1%)
4th weekend: $36.5m (3-day) / $46.5m (4-day) (-33.2% / -14.8%)
Total after 4th weekend: $524.3m

The multiplier from the 3-day portion of Weekend 4 for the rest of its run: 3.9
The overall total: $620m



Friday, May 4, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 4 - 6): The Avengers!

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Avengers155.0$35,640 PTA
2. Think Like a Man8.0-54.6%
3. The Pirates! Band of Misfits6.5-41.6%
4. The Five-Year Engagement5.5-48.2%
5. The Hunger Games5.3-51.0%
6. The Lucky One5.0-53.7%
7. Chimpanzee3.7-29.2%
8. Safe3.3-58.2%
9. The Raven3.1-57.5%
10. The Three Stooges2.5-51.6%


Friday, April 27, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 27 - 29): The Five-Year Engagement, The Pirates, The Raven, Safe

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Think Like a Man18.5-45.0%
2. The Five-Year Engagement18.0$6,131 PTA
3. The Pirates! Band of Misfits16.0$4,765 PTA
4. The Lucky One11.5-48.9%
5. The Hunger Games11.0-25.0%
6. The Raven11.0$4,993 PTA
7. Safe8.0$3,530 PTA
8. The Three Stooges5.6-42.6%
9. Chimpanzee4.5-57.8%
10. The Cabin in the Woods4.1-48.9%


Monday, April 23, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (04/16 - 04/22): Titanic 3D crossed $110m

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Titanic 3D(泰坦尼克号)270m ($42.80m)-42.3%104,1276,042,972738m ($117.02m)
2. Battleship(超级战舰)122m ($19.34m)New79,6823,591,404122m ($19.34m)
3. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance(灵魂战车2)24.4m ($3.87m)New21,231624,20027.05m ($4.29m)
4. R.T.T.(迈阿密行动)4.7m ($0.74m)-55.7%21,547159,32215.3m ($2.42m)
5. New York Assassination(纽约行动)3.8m ($0.60m)-51.3%19,133129,60411.6m ($1.84m)
6. Love in the Buff(春娇与志明)1.96m ($0.31m)-81.7%7,95759,16071.66m ($11.37m)
7. Love on that Day(爱在那一天)1.6m ($0.25m)-49.2%10,81155,2864.75m ($0.75m)
8. Huang Dao Qing Fei Liao(荒岛情未了)1.2m ($0.19m)-40.0%8,42041,3503.2m ($0.51m)
9. Blood Stained Shoes(绣花鞋)1.19m ($0.19m)-82.8%5,88140,31144.39m ($7.04m)
10. Wrath of the Titans(诸神之怒)1.14m ($0.18m)-88.0%3,17527,384165.04m ($26.19m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1585)

If we combine Titanic's number from the original release, it has grossed over 1 billion yuan to surpass Transformers 3, with Avatar in sight to reclaim the crown for the biggest film ever in China.


Friday, April 20, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 20 - 22): Think Like a Man, The Lucky One, Chimpanzee

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Think Like a Man26.0$12,903 PTA
2. The Lucky One23.0$7,290 PTA
3. The Hunger Games11.5-45.5%
4. The Three Stooges9.0-47.1%
5. Titanic (3D)7.5-37.1%
6. Chimpanzee7.0$4,479 PTA
7. The Cabin in the Woods6.5-55.9%
8. American Reunion5.0-52.3%
9. Mirror Mirror4.4-35.7%
10. 21 Jump Street4.3-34.4%


Monday, April 16, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (04/09 - 04/15): Titanic has arrived, and oh my, what an entrance!

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Titanic 3D(泰坦尼克号)468m ($74.22m)New113,02010,500,336468m ($74.22m)
2. Love in the Buff(春娇与志明)10.7m ($1.70m)-73.6%32,392321,41769.7m ($11.06m)
3. R.T.T.(迈阿密行动)10.6m ($1.68m)New21,673364,88810.6m ($1.68m)
4. Wrath of the Titans(诸神之怒)9.5m ($1.51m)-91.2%20,180226,460163.9m ($26.01m)
5. New York Assassination(纽约行动)7.8m ($1.24m)New14,002262,1847.8m ($1.24m)
6. Blood Stained Shoes(绣花鞋)6.9m ($1.09m)-74.9%26,033221,43743.2m ($6.85m)
7. The Unfortunate Car(车在囧途)5m ($0.79m)-74.7%21,277169,20427.05m ($4.29m)
8. Love on that Day(爱在那一天)3.15m ($0.50m)New8,112103,3463.15m ($0.50m)
9. John Carter(异星战场)3.03m ($0.48m)-90.2%9,34683,887262.53m ($41.51m)
10. Huang Dao Qing Fei Liao(荒岛情未了)2m ($0.32m)New6,75766,5112m ($0.32m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1586)

Titanic re-release set the record for both the biggest opening week ($74.22m vs. Transformer 3's $62.66m) and the largest number of admissions for a week (10.5m vs. TF3's 9.5m) to help the total weekly box office surpass 500m yuan for the first time ever. Happening in April with no holiday help makes the performance even more amazing. Not surprisingly, the best days for Titanic were Saturday (107m yuan/$16.97m) and Sunday (91.6m yuan/$14.53m).

As for how far it could go, the daily pattern so far has not shown sign of frontloadedness, and although Battleship will represent a solid competition, May Day holiday should help its later legs. I fully expect it to break 1 billion yuan for a $160m+ total, and when we take the $44m the original release grossed, it will re-claim the title for the biggest film of all time in China from Avatar.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (04/02 - 04/08): QingMing holiday and no openers propelled great holds across the board

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Wrath of the Titans(诸神之怒)107.7m ($17.08m)+130.6%94,9402,476,961154.4m ($24.5m)
2. Love in the Buff(春娇与志明)40.5m ($6.42m)+118.9%65,2971,161,53659m ($9.36m)
3. John Carter(异星战场)31m ($4.92m)-22.5%36,390769,359258.9m ($41.03m)
4. Blood Stained Shoes(绣花鞋)27.5m ($4.36m)+212.5%53,218820,78736.3m ($5.76m)
5. The Unfortunate Car(车在囧途)19.8m ($3.14m)+780.0%40,771625,73722.05m ($3.5m)
6. Late Autumn(晚秋)12.65m ($2.01m)-48.4%26,539368,31965.15m ($10.34m)
7. Night Fall(大追捕)2.37m ($0.38m)-70.4%5,81266,98148.57m ($7.7m)
8. Blitz(玩命追踪)2.36m ($0.37m)-59.3%5,09070,80230.91m ($4.89m)
9. Snow Fall in Taipei(台湾飘雪)1.8m ($0.29m)+566.7%9,71443,8442.07m ($0.33m)
10. A Simple Life(桃姐)1.19m ($0.19m)-61.6%2,57335,54368.39m ($10.83m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1586)

China Weekly Box Office (03/25 - 04/01): Wrath of the Titans took the pole position

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Wrath of the Titans(诸神之怒)46.7m ($7.42m)New38,8541,149,30046.7m ($7.42m)
2. John Carter(异星战场)40m ($6.35m)-59.7%62,9981,026,700227.9m ($36.11m)
3. Late Autumn(晚秋)24.5m ($3.89m)-12.5%52,999821,00052.5m ($8.33m)
4. Love in the Buff(春娇与志明)18.5m ($2.94m)New30,868571,80018.5m ($2.94m)
5. Blood Stained Shoes(绣花鞋)8.8m ($1.40m)New12,818282,5008.8m ($1.40m)
6. Night Fall(大追捕)8m ($1.27m)-56.5%24,325257,40046.2m ($7.32m)
7. Blitz(玩命追踪)5.8m ($0.92m)-55.4%17,725187,10028.55m ($4.52m)
8. Marrying My Perfect(嫁个一百分男人)3.8m ($0.60m)-67.0%17,146129,80024.6m ($3.89m)
9. A Simple Life(桃姐)3.1m ($0.49m)-65.2%9,44394,60067.2m ($10.64m)
10. The Unfortunate Car(车在囧途)2.25m ($0.36m)New4,36573,4002.25m ($0.36m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

Friday, April 13, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 13 - 15): The Cabin in the Woods, The Three Stooges, Lockout

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Hunger Games21.5-35.1%
2. The Cabin in the Woods13.0$4,625 PTA
3. Titanic (3D)11.5-33.5%
4. The Three Stooges11.0$3,164 PTA
5. American Reunion10.0-53.5%
6. Mirror Mirror8.5-23.4%
7. Wrath of the Titans8.0-45.7%
8. 21 Jump Street7.0-30.0%
9. Lockout4.5$1,950 PTA
10. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax3.1-38.4%


Friday, April 6, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 6 - 8): back to the 90s with American Reunion and Titanic

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Hunger Games32.0-45.3%
2. American Reunion27.0$8,461 PTA
3. Titanic (3D)26.0$9,723 PTA
4. Wrath of the Titans15.0-55.2%
5. Mirror Mirror11.5-36.6%
6. 21 Jump Street8.8-40.7%
7. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax5.5-29.3%
8. Salmon Fishing in the Yemen0.9-29.3%
9. John Carter0.7-65.5%
10. Act of Valor0.53-47.1%


Friday, March 30, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 30 - Apr 1): Wrath of the Titans, Mirror Mirror

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Hunger Games68.0-55.4%
2. Wrath of the Titans32.0$9,027 PTA
3. Mirror Mirror24.0$6,661 PTA
4. 21 Jump Street13.5-34.1%
5. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax7.8-40.8%
6. John Carter2.2-56.7%
7. Salmon Fishing in the Yemen1.5+113.5%
8. Act of Valor1.0-51.0%
9. A Thousand Words0.8-59.0%
10. Jeff, Who Lives At Home0.7+19.3%


Wednesday, March 28, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (Mar 19 - 25): John Carter repeat on a quiet weekend for openers

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. John Carter(异星战场)99.2m ($15.73m)+11.8%91,2092,493,715187.9m ($29.76m)
2. Late Autumn(晚秋)28m ($4.44m)New26,906918,63528m ($4.44m)
3. Night Fall(大追捕)18.4m ($2.92m)-7.1%40,994590,12138.2m ($6.05m)
4. Blitz(玩命追踪)13m ($2.06m)+33.3%31,690418,94922.75m ($3.6m)
5. Marrying My Perfect(嫁个一百分男人)11.5m ($1.82m)+23.7%33,086384,48620.8m ($3.29m)
6. A Simple Life(桃姐)8.9m ($1.41m)-59.9%19,600269,28864.1m ($10.15m)
7. War Horse(战马)6m ($0.95m)-63.6%11,770167,270115.5m ($18.31m)
8. Joyful Reunion(饮食男女2012)2.7m ($0.43m)New10,29785,0662.7m ($0.43m)
9. Fortress of War(兵临城下之决战要塞)2.3m ($0.36m)-4.2%10,96673,4354.7m ($0.74m)
10. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)1.83m ($0.29m)-3,09050,247646.33m ($102.48m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1586)

Sunday, March 25, 2012

The Hunger Games: the most impressive box office opening of all time

So $155m with estimate, and could potentially go even higher with actual if all the sold-out shows pushed more business to Sunday. This is simply insane, or any other word one could think of to describe such mind-blowing achievement.

1. Its opening Friday of $68m is the 5th biggest single day gross of all time, and the top 4 were all achieved by sequels. In fact, the sequels occupied the top 20 spots, as the previous single day record for a non-sequel was Alice in Wonderland's $44.2m.

2. If we subtract midnight from each respective film's opening day, its $48.3m Friday would rank 3rd all time, behind only the opening Friday of Spider-Man 3 (~$50m) and The Dark Knight ($48.6m, one that it could surpass when the daily actuals come in on Monday).

3. Its $51m Saturday ranks 2nd all time, a tiny $0.3m behind Spider-Man's first Saturday (so again, it may just claim the top spot on Monday).

4. It achieved an increase from Friday minus midnight to Saturday and in the process broke Alice in Wonderland's March opening weekend record with one day to spare.

5. If the opening weekend estimate holds, which I give a high probability of happening as I expect the Sunday drop to come in below 30%, it would mean the film has sold more tickets than even the first Spider-Man did on its opening frame (inflation-adjusted to $154.8m).


We could break down its numbers left and right, but all point to one thing: this is as impressive a start one franchise has ever seen since Spider-Man. However, ask ourselves the following question: was anyone comparing The Hunger Games to Spider-Man before Friday? No; and if you were, you would be laughed at and probably asked to have your brain checked out. In fact, we have been playing catch-up in term of its box office potential for the past three months, and in the end it still somehow beat the expectations even after the latest round of surge in hype this week. Back in early January, when its stock at HSX was hovering around $190, I made a comment there saying it appeared to be way overpriced as I was thinking a $50m start at the time (would mean an adjust-price of $135); Ha, silly me. Then I began to gradually move my target up, and by February when the first report of its advance sales came in, I realized $100m+ is possible; then $120-130m a couple of weeks ago, and finally gave in to the hype and settled at $148m for my prediction on Thursday. It still felt short. Many who have followed the film may have similar stories. The way the film defied and raised expectations, on top of the raw awesomeness of its numbers so far, is what push its opening weekend to be the most impressive one ever for me.

And we are not done yet. With very good word-of-mouth, that Fri-to-Sat increase, and not much competition in April, The Hunger Games could stay at the top of the chart for a while. I do believe $400m total is very likely to happen now. The bar for the other mega-blockbusters of the year, such as The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers, and The Hobbit, has been officially raised. This is going to be an exciting year at the box office.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 23 - 25): The Hunger Games; yes, I'm buying into the hype

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Hunger Games148.0$35,775 PTA
2. 21 Jump Street23.0-36.6%
3. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax13.0-42.9%
4. John Carter6.5-52.1%


Detailed breakdown for my The Hunger Games predictions:

Midnight - $25m
Friday without Midnight - $46m
Friday with midnight - $71m
Saturday - $45m
Sunday - $32m
Weekend - $148m

With excellent word-of-mouth, 21 Jump Street should see a healthy hold despite having to face The Hunger Games' massive opening. After all, Horrible Bosses declined just 37.2% when facing Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2's record-setting $169m start. Not much to discuss for the rest, as no film outside the top 4 would gross above $3m on this weekend.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (03/12 - 03/18): John Carter was off to an excellent start

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. John Carter(异星战场)88.7m ($14.03m)New41,3652,196,08888.7m ($14.03m)
2. A Simple Life(桃姐)22.2m ($3.51m)-32.7%42,948697,67455.2m ($8.74m)
3. Night Fall(大追捕)19.8m ($3.13m)New29,851629,37019.8m ($3.13m)
4. War Horse(战马)16.5m ($2.61m)-55.4%27,731486,295109.5m ($17.36m)
5. Blitz(玩命追踪)9.75m ($1.54m)New16,553309,5239.75m ($1.54m)
6. Marrying My Perfect(嫁个一百分男人)9.3m ($1.47m)New15,506299,0359.3m ($1.47m)
7. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)8.7m ($1.38m)-60.1%15,344212,402376.5m ($58.39m)
8. The Second Woman(情谜)7.28m ($1.15m)-43.6%24,015231,25720.18m ($3.19m)
9. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World in 4D(非常小特工)6.67m ($1.06m)-64.5%18,528190,46225.47m ($4.04m)
10. Conan the Barbarian(王者之剑)5.7m ($0.90m)-67.2%13,075156,98142.8m ($6.79m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1582)

Saturday, March 17, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (03/05 - 03/11): War Horse repeat while A Simple Life shined; Mission Impossible 4 crossed $100m

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. War Horse(战马)37m ($5.86m)-33.9%42,9961,120,87293m ($14.75m)
2. A Simple Life(桃姐)33m ($5.23m)New32,8091,057,01433m ($5.23m)
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)21.8m ($3.46m)-44.1%24,424531,837367.8m ($58.39m)
4. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World in 4D(非常小特工)18.8m ($2.98m)New24,745524,84618.8m ($2.98m)
5. Conan the Barbarian(王者之剑)17.4m ($2.76m)-11.7%25,849474,24337.1m ($5.89m)
6. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)14.4m ($2.28m)-40.0%16,535395,930640m ($101.48m)
7. The Second Woman(情谜)12.9m ($2.04m)New21,055408,48612.9m ($2.04m)
8. À bout portant(单刀直入)5.2m ($0.82m)New10,496164,6615.2m ($0.82m)
9. Turning Point 2(变节:潜罪犯)4.9m ($0.78m)-31.9%15,353157,86012.1m ($1.92m)
10. Feng Kuang De Chun Zei(疯狂的蠢贼)4.7m ($0.74m)-44.7%15,046162,12413.2m ($2.09m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1585)

China Weekly Box Office (02/27 - 03/04): War Horse leads as we entered March

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. War Horse(战马)56m ($8.89m)New56,1991,709,92356m ($8.89m)
2. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)39m ($6.19m)-41.8%43,262962,013346m ($54.93m)
3. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)24m ($3.81m)-46.1%28,622683,371625.6m ($99.2m)
4. Conan the Barbarian(王者之剑)19.7m ($3.13m)New23,456517,46719.7m ($3.13m)
5. Happy Feet Two(快乐大脚2)14m ($2.22m)-58.8%25,187382,82748m ($7.62m)
6. Love(爱)10.3m ($1.64m)-67.8%18,221296,573134.3m ($21.32m)
7. Tales of Two Cities(双城计中计)9.4m ($1.49m)-18.3%27,851311,25820.9m ($2.68m)
8. Feng Kuang De Chun Zei(疯狂的蠢贼)8.5m ($1.35m)New16,808278,9628.5m ($1.35m)
9. Turning Point 2(变节:潜罪犯)7.2m ($1.14m)New12,599223,5337.2m ($1.14m)
10. I Do(我愿意)5.2m ($0.83m)-64.1%13,660165,92280.4m ($12.77m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

Friday, March 16, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 16 - 18): 21 Jump Street

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. 21 Jump Street34.0$10,894 PTA
2. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax25.0-35.6%
3. John Carter17.0-43.7%
4. Project X6.0-46.2%
5. Act of Valor4.5-35.6%
6. A Thousand Words3.7-40.1%
7. Safe House3.4-29.2%
8. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island2.7-25.2%
9. The Vow2.7-29.7%
10. Silent House2.3-65.5%


Friday, March 9, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 9 - 11): John Carter, Silent House, A Thousand Words

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax43.0-38.8%
2. John Carter17.0$4,535 PTA
3. Project X10.0-52.5%
4. Act of Valor8.2-39.6%
5. Silent House5.5$2,589 PTA
6. Safe House5.0-32.3%
7. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island4.1-37.4%
8. The Vow4.1-31.8%
9. A Thousand Words4.0$2,116 PTA
10. This Means War3.8-31.7%


Tuesday, March 6, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (02/20 - 02/26): Journey 2 crossed 300m yuan, and Mission Impossible 4 is approaching $100m

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)67m ($10.64m)-53.8%60,5281,645,383307m ($48.74m)
2. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)44.5m ($7.07m)-44.7%44,3501,279,838601.6m ($95.39m)
3. Happy Feet Two(快乐大脚2)34m ($5.40m)New43,845915,94834m ($5.40m)
4. Love(爱)32m ($5.08m)-65.2%42,048944,788124m ($19.68m)
5. I Do(我愿意)14.5m ($2.30m)-64.6%29,570446,70375.2m ($11.94m)
6. Killer Elite(铁血精英)14.3m ($2.27m)-4.7%28,194448,97929.3m ($4.65m)
7. Tales of Two Cities(双城计中计)11.5m ($1.19m)New18,075371,80711.5m ($1.19m)
8. The King's Speech(国王的演讲)4.5m ($0.71m)New10,716137,0284.5m ($0.71m)
9. New Dragon Gate(新龙门客栈)4.3m ($0.68m)New10,430136,8994.3m ($0.68m)
10. Truth or Brave(真心话大冒险)2.4m ($0.38m)-79.7%7,17584,53614.2m ($2.25m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

Friday, March 2, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Mar 2 - 4): Dr. Seuss' The Lorax, Project X

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax47.0$12,607 PTA
2. Project X16.0$5,237 PTA
3. Act of Valor13.0-46.9%
4. Good Deeds6.8-56.4%
5. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island6.6-50.7%
6. Safe House6.0-45.1%
7. The Vow5.5-44.5%
8. This Means War4.6-45.4%
9. The Artist4.4+51.4%
10. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance4.3-52.3%


Saturday, February 25, 2012

Final Oscar Predictions

Best Picture - The Artist

Best Director - Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Best Actor - Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Best Actress - Viola Davis, The Help

Best Supporting Actor - Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Best Supporting Actress - Octavia Spencer, The Help

Best Adapted Screenplay - The Descendants

Best Original Screenplay - Midnight in Paris

Best Animated Feature Film -Rango

Best Foreign Language Film - A Separation (Iran)

Best Editing - The Artist

Best Cinematography - The Artist

Best Art Direction - Hugo

Best Costume Design - The Artist

Best Documentary Feature - Pina

Best Documentary Short - Saving Face

Best Makeup - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Best Original Score - The Artist

Best Original Song - "Man or Muppet," The Muppets

Best Animated Short Film - Wild Life

Best Live Action Short Film - Tuba Atlantic

Best Sound Editing - Hugo

Best Sound Mixing - Hugo

Best Visual Effects - Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Friday, February 24, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 24 - 26): Act of Valor, Good Deeds, Gone, Wanderlust

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Act of Valor24.0$7,897 PTA
2. Good Deeds15.5$7,270 PTA
3. Safe House14.0-40.8%
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island12.5-37.0%
5. The Vow12.0-48.0%
6. This Means War9.0-48.3%
7. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance8.9-59.8%
8. Gone5.3$2,425 PTA
9. Wanderlust5.0$2,499 PTA
10. The Secret World of Arrietty4.5-30.2%


Wednesday, February 22, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (02/13 - 02/19): Journey 2 jumped to the top

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)145m ($23.01m)+52.6%80,9233,327,977240m ($38.1m)
2. Love(爱)92m ($14.60m)New62,3662,542,13892m ($14.6m)
3. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)80.4m ($12.76m)-40.2%54,4392,178,861557.1m ($88.32m)
4. I Do(我愿意)41m ($6.51m)+108.1%48,5301,153,95460.7m ($9.64m)
5. Killer Elite(铁血精英)15m ($2.38m)New19,004476,19015m ($2.38m)
6. Truth or Brave(真心话大冒险)11.8m ($1.87m)New16,964369,21111.8m ($1.87m)
7. Romancing in Thin Air(高海拔之恋Ⅱ)7.5m ($1.19m)-35.3%17,055203,91519.1m ($3.03m)
8. Ye Dian Gui Tan(夜店诡谈)3.4m ($0.54m)+11.1%8,482101,7966.46m ($1.03m)
9. The Burma Conspiracy(豪门生死恋)1.36m ($0.22m)+172.0%5,91041,7811.86m ($0.30m)
10. The Floating Shadow(浮出水面的影子)1.18m ($0.19m)New4,59038,5241.18m ($0.19m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1587)

Friday, February 17, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (02/06 - 02/12): Strong start by Journey 2 could not prevent Mission: Impossible 4 from 3-peating

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)134.5m ($21.36m)-44.2%91,1063,878,316476.7m ($75.56m)
2. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island(地心历险记2)95m ($15.09m)New38,6872,244,80195m ($15.09m)
3. I Do(我愿意)19.7m ($3.13m)New19,796585,61219.7m ($3.13m)
4. Romancing in Thin Air(高海拔之恋Ⅱ)11.6m ($1.84m)New20,147349,81211.6m ($1.84m)
5. Life Without Principle(夺命金)10.5m ($1.67m)-25.0%22,176337,18624.5m ($3.89m)
6. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows(大侦探福尔摩斯2:诡影游戏)10.2m ($1.62m)-54.3%13,942305,297184.5m ($29.21m)
7. The Viral Factor(逆战)6.7m ($1.06m)-61.9%11,736206,090126.9m ($20.06m)
8. Perfect Two(新天生一对)4.6m ($0.73m)-66.2%10,183148,86749.2m ($7.78m)
9. Fan Ju Ye Feng Kuang(饭局也疯狂)4.4m ($0.70m)-59.3%7,416140,48543m ($5.8m)
10. All's Well, Ends Well 2012(八星报喜2012)4m ($0.64m)-73.0%8,114125,86579.6m ($12.6m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1588)

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 17 - 20): Ghost Rider 2, This Means War, The Secret World of Arrietty

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Vow28.0-32.0%
2. Safe House27.0-32.8%
3. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island26.0-4.9%
4. Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance23.0$7,246 PTA
5. This Means War17.0$5,331 PTA
6. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D)11.5-48.8%
7. Chronicle8.8-27.2%
8. The Secret World of Arrietty7.3$4,796 PTA
9. The Women in Black7.0-30.7%
10. The Grey3.7-26.7%


Tuesday, February 14, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (01/30 - 02/05): Mission Impossible 4 surged to enjoy one of the best weeks ever

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)241m ($38.22m)+138.1%113,3786,911,385342.2m ($54.2m)
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows(大侦探福尔摩斯2:诡影游戏)22.3m ($3.54m)-67.2%22,307668,064174.3m ($27.59m)
3. The Viral Factor(逆战)17.6m ($2.79m)-68.3%20,571534,467120.2m ($19m)
4. All's Well, Ends Well 2012(八星报喜2012)14.8m ($2.35m)-68.4%19,353462,35575.6m ($11.96m)
5. Life Without Principle(夺命金)14m ($2.22m)New19,137435,05214m ($2.22m)
6. Perfect Two(新天生一对)13.6m ($2.16m)-56.1%20,505431,74644.6m ($7.05m)
7. Mission Incredible: Adventures On The Dragon's Trail(喜羊羊与灰太狼之开心闯龙年)12.5m ($1.98m)-66.2%22,938425,459160.5m ($25.39m)
8. Fan Ju Ye Feng Kuang(饭局也疯狂)10.8m ($1.71m)-61.2%13,310345,48938.6m ($5.1m)
9. The Great Magician(大魔术师)9.6m ($1.52m)-76.3%11,968287,856169.3m ($26.78m)
10. The Monkey King 3D(大闹天宫3D)5.1m ($0.81m)-63.0%6,411151,60547.6m ($7.53m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1586)

Friday, February 10, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 10 - 12): The Vow, Safe House, Star Wars: Episode I, Journey 2

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Vow43.0$14,537 PTA
2. Safe House30.0$9,622 PTA
3. Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (in 3D)17.0$6,403 PTA
4. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island15.0$4,323 PTA
5. Chronicle12.0-45.5%
6. The Women in Black11.0-47.3%
7. Big Miracle5.5-29.1%
8. The Grey5.3-43.0%
9. The Descendants3.4-25.3%
10. One for the Money2.6-50.1%


1. The breakout signs for The Vow are everywhere: Major Theater Chain tracking coming in way higher than ReelSource's (34 vs. high-teens), averaging 50K tweets per day for the last three days, accounting for 40% of the ticket sales at Fandango even with the presence of an ultra-fanboy film in The Phantom Menace. Remember Dear John opened on the less-friendly Superbowl frame, and a normal non-NFL Sunday hold would have pushed its already impressive opening even higher to around $34m. With better tracking, more proximity to Valentine's Day, and a couple years of ticket inflation, a $40m start is well within reach for The Vow.

2. Safe House has the feel of The Book of Eli, which opened to $32.8m with some help from MLK holiday. This January has shown that the 18-25 years old crowd is coming back to theaters, and along with the usual audience that would show up to see Denzel Washington kicking ass, it should be enough for Washington's 3rd $30m+ opener of his career.

3. The Phantom Menace re-release, in 3D this time, is selling well on Fandango, but I am not convinced it will translate that nicely to the actual gross. Given the fanatic nature of its fans, the advance online ticket sales will be disproportionally skewed comparing other regular films, even previous 3D re-releases. It was mentioned in HSX that NRG survey showed it was tracking in between the re-releases of The Lion King and Beauty and the Beast, but those two are Disney animated films, a far different creature. Avatar: Special Edition, for example, accounted for 14% of advance sales the day before its release and only opened to $4m. The Phantom Menace will have a lot more theaters, but I don't see a $20m weekend.

4. In one of those rare occasions, the film with the most amount of theaters in a 4-openers weekend also appears to be the weakest, thanks to the lukewarm responses 3D family-oriented sequels have seen since last year. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island won't be able to break that trend, not on this highly competitive weekend and not with another 3D film that will attract some of the similar audience.

Monday, February 6, 2012

China Weekly Box Office (01/23 - 01/29): blockbuster start for Mission: Impossible 4 during the Lunar New Year frame

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol(碟中谍4)101.2m ($15.98m) (Opened on Sat)New33,0312,837,118101.2m ($15.98m)
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows(大侦探福尔摩斯2:诡影游戏)68m ($10.74m)+3.0%38,6971,998,236152m ($24.05m)
3. The Viral Factor(逆战)55.6m ($8.78m)+18.8%37,4601,647,895102.4m ($16.19m)
4. All's Well, Ends Well 2012(八星报喜2012)46.8m ($7.39m)+234.3%35,2541,406,67260.8m ($9.61m)
5. The Great Magician(大魔术师)40.5m ($6.39m)-9.2%27,0001,172,553159.7m ($25.26m)
6. Mission Incredible: Adventures On The Dragon's Trail(喜羊羊与灰太狼之开心闯龙年)37m ($5.84m)-2.6%35,3441,187,419148m ($23.41m)
7. Perfect Two(新天生一对)31m ($4.89m)New28,595953,25931m ($4.89m)
8. Fan Ju Ye Feng Kuang(饭局也疯狂)27.8m ($4.39m)New22,508881,14127.8m ($4.39m)
9. The Monkey King 3D(大闹天宫3D)13.8m ($2.18m)+36.6%9,642378,70442.5m ($6.72m)
10. Hu Tao Jia Zi 2(胡桃夹子2)11.8m ($1.86m)+25.5%9,138331,27421.2m ($3.35m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1579)

Friday, February 3, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 3 - 5): The Women in Black, Chronicle, Big Miracle

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Women in Black16.0$5,604 PTA
2. Chronicle13.0$4,472 PTA
3. The Grey9.0-54.2%
4. Big Miracle7.0$3,289 PTA
5. One for the Money6.0-47.9%
6. Red Tails5.8-44.1%
7. Underworld Awakening5.6-54.7%
8. The Descendants4.5-29.7%
9. Man on a Ledge4.3-46.3%
10. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close4.0-42.7%

(And Super Bowl prediction: Patriots - 27, Giants - 24)

:)


Friday, January 27, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 27 - 29): The Grey, Man on a Ledge, One for the Money

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Grey13.5$4,239 PTA
2. Man on a Ledge10.5$3,502 PTA
3. One for the Money10.0$3,654 PTA
4. Underworld Awakening10.0-60.5%
5. Red Tails10.0-46.8%
6. Contraband7.5-37.7%
7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close7.0-30.3%
8. Beauty and the Beast5.5-37.4%
9. The Descendants4.5+89.7%
10. Haywire4.5-46.7%
-. The Artist3.3+39.1%


Saturday, January 21, 2012

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

Always fun to do this exercise each year. :)  

Best Picture
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. Hugo
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Moneyball

(War Horse will be next on the list, but with snubs from DGA/WGA/ASC/ADG guilds and a lack of showing in important categories at BAFTA, its chance at BP is very much on thin ice; then there are Bridesmaids and The Ides of March, but I don't see enough No. 1 votes for either; the lack of guilds has practically killed The Tree of Life, Drive, and Tinker Tailor Solider Spy, although the last two did get some much-needed help from BAFTA towards the end.)  

Best Director
1. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
2. Martin Scorsese, Hugo
3. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
4. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
5. David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo  

Best Actress
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis, The Help
3. Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
4. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

(I'm pulling hard for Rooney Mara to make it, and academy has favored younger actresses for this category in the past.)

Best Actor
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
4. Michael Fassbender, Shame
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

(Fassbender, IMO, gave the best performance of the year, so hopefully he won't get snubbed.)

Best Supporting Actress
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Jessica Chastain, The Help
3. Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
4. Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
5. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

(BAFTA nominated Bejo in the lead category, so we could see her miss due to category confusion.)

Best Supporting Actor
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
3. Nick Nolte, Warrior
4. Jonah Hill, Moneyball
5. Albert Brooks, Drive

(Brooks is vulnerable after missing both SAG and BAFTA; among the four acting categories this year, this is the most unpredictable one for nominations but also the most predictable for the winner, as Plummer will finally win an Oscar.)

Best Original Screenplay
1. Midnight in Paris
2. The Artist
3. Margin Call
4. Bridsmaids
5. A Separation

(Going for a surprise here with A Separation instead of Win Win or 50/50.)

Best Adapted Screenplay
1. The Descendants
2. Moneyball
3. The Help
4. Tinker Tailor Solider Spy
5. The Ides of March

Best Foreign Language Film
1. A Separation, Iran
2. Pina, Germany
3. In Darkness, Poland
4. Footnote, Israel
5. Monsieur Lazhar, Canada

Best Documentary Feature
1. Project Nim
2. Pina
3. The Loving Story
4. We Were Here
5. Semper Fi: Always Faithful

Best Animated Feature
1. Rango
2. The Adventures of Tintin
3. Arthur Christmas
4. Puss in Boots
5. Chico and Rita

Best Cinematography
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. The Tree of Life

Best Editing
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. Moneyball
4. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5. Drive

Best Art Direction
1. Hugo
2. The Artist
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
4. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
5. War Horse

Best Costume Design
1. Hugo
2. My Week with Marilyn
3. The Artist
4. Jane Eyre
5. The Help

Best Makeup
1. The Iron Lady
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
3. The Artist

Best Visual Effects
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
3. Hugo
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon
5. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol

Best Original Score
1. The Artist
2. Hugo
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
4. War Horse
5. The Help

Best Original Song
1. "Life's a Happy Song," The Muppets
2. "Pictures in my Head," The Muppets
3. "The Living Proof," The Help
4. "Lay Your Head Down," Albert Nobbs
5. "Hello Hello," Gnomeo & Juliet

Best Sound Mixing
1. Hugo
2. Super 8
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II
4. Moneyball
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Best Sound Editing
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2. Hugo
3. Hanna
4. Super 8
5. War Horse

Best Documentary Short
1. Incident in New Baghdad
2. Witness
3. The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom
4. In Tahrir Square: 18 Days of Egypts Unfinished Revolution
5. Pipe Dreams

Best Live Action Short
1. The Road Home
2. Raju
3. Pentecost
4. Sailcloth
5. Time Freak

Best Animated Short
1. La Luna
2. The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
3. Wild Life
4. Magic Piano
5. Luminaris