Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Early Weekend Thoughts (Nov 11 - 13): Puss in Boots looks to 3-peat over Immortals, Jack and Jill, and J. Edgar

I will be traveling with family to Hawaii for 10 days starting tomorrow, and online time will be limited, so will post my thoughts on this weekend's top 5 now.

1. Puss in Boots - $30m (-9.2%)

Puss in Boots' leggy run should continue this weekend with the help of Veterans Day on Friday, as family films tend to perform exceptionally well on this holiday. The last time Veterans Day fell on Friday, Chicken Little turned a $2.23m Tuesday into a $31.7m weekend, thanks to a 81.8% Thursday jump and then a 285.4% Friday increase. Puss in Boots' second Tuesday of $2.43m is not only better than Chicken Little's by comparison, it is also better than what it earned a week ago, a very rare occurrence. Another superb hold should occur.

2. Immortals - $20m (New)

The general expectations on Immortals were relatively low given the recent failure of Conan the Barbarian ($10m opening) and The Three Musketeers ($8.7m). However, both tracking firms, Major Theater Chain and ReelSource, came in early this week and put its opening at around mid-$20m, indicating the appeal to 300 crowd could be working. On the other hand, Flixster shows 15,859 user ratings so far, not that strong for a film that is likely to see a user-rating-to-OW ratio of over 1,000. On the Twitter front, it is on track for about 15,000 tweets from Monday to Thursday, good but again not necessarily matching the tracking strength, as its tweets-to-Friday ratio should be close to 2,000, and with the catchy 11/11/11 release date and the inherent frontloading nature of the genre, a $8m Friday may not translate to a $20m weekend.

3. Tower Heist - $17m (-29.2%)

On the equivalent weekend in 2005, many holdovers saw excellent holds due to holiday. With good word-of-mouth and sneak-in business from 2 R-rated openers, look for Tower Heist to have a great sophomore frame.

4. Jack and Jill - $15m (New)

Simply not feeling the latest Adam Sandler release. The ads have not generated much interest, as it is stuck in a place that doesn't attract any particular demographics. It could very well be Sandler's second Little Nicky.

5. J. Edgar - $14m (New)

Outside Gran Torino, Clint Eastwood's recent offerings had experienced pretty similar runs: Hereafter, Invictus, Changeling, and Flags of Our Fathers all opened between $8.6m and $12.1m and finished with $32.7-37.5m total. The interests in J. Edgar appear to be higher due to the presence of Leonardo DiCaprio, but the worse reviews could cut its legs short, so expect a stronger start but weaker overall multiplier.

2 comments:

  1. Hi Yun, how do you get your MTC and RS tracking numbers? Do you have a site or are you a subscriber? Thanks

    Marc

    ReplyDelete
  2. I get the tracking numbers from HSX forum, where either notfabio or WeekendWarrior will post them on Monday.

    ReplyDelete