Thursday, November 24, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (11/07 - 11/13): the darkhorse Love Is Not Blind surpised all with a monster start to win over Real Steel and Immortals

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Love Is Not Blind(失恋33天)189m ($29.79m)New89,5305,967,792189m ($29.79m)
2. Real Steel(铁甲钢拳)57.5m ($9.06m)New49,9121,711,30957.5m ($9.06m)
3. Immortals(惊天战神)33.4m ($5.26m)New21,706891,85533.4m ($5.26m)
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes(猩球崛起)31m ($4.89m)-65.0%36,578985,378186.5m ($29.36m)
5. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence(名侦探柯南:沉默的15分钟)8.4m ($1.32m)-57.4%16,906291,26228.1m ($4.42m)
6. Starry Starry Night(星空)4.4m ($0.69m)-58.9%9,779134,80315.1m ($2.37m)
7. Kora(转山)1.48m ($0.23m)-40.8%3,92748,8283.98m ($0.63m)
8. Single Terminator(光棍终结者)1.15m ($0.18m)New3,03840,1251.15m ($0.18m)
9. Zuo Li Jun(左利军)1.07m ($0.17m)+118.4%16535,6661.56m ($0.25m)
10. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)0.89m ($0.14m)-88.6%2,57526,30072.19m ($11.34m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1576)

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Thanksgiving Weekend Predictions (11/23 - 27): The Muppets, Arthur Christmas, Hugo

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I - $40m 3-day / $62m 5-day (-71.0%)

Breaking Dawn Part I has followed closely with New Moon in term of daily percentage changes: Sat-to-Sun - -33.9% vs. -34.2%; Sun-to-Mon - -62.7% vs. -62.3%.  New Moon did face less new competition on its Thanksgiving week with Old Dogs and Ninja Assassin grossing $45.4m combined over 5 days, but it had to deal with much stronger holdovers, especially in The Blind Side, so overall expect Breaking Dawn to continue follow a similar trajectory.  In the end, it is likely to not only miss the $300m mark, but also gross less than New Moon's total of $296.6m.

2. The Muppets - $35m 3-day / $50m 5-day ($10,174 PTA)

There are many positives pointing to an excellent start by The Muppets:

a. Over 6,000 tweets on Monday alone and around 17,000 user ratings already at Flixster. For a family film, both are very strong. For example, Happy Feet 2 last week translated 9,300 Flixster ratings on Thursday into a $21.2m weekend.

b. It accounted for 31% of the ticket sales at Fandango on Tuesday.

c. MTC tracking put it at $31.5m while RS gave it high-$20s for the 3-day portion. Although the difference is not large enough to strongly indicate an opening higher than MTC's figure, a number below RS' is also unlikely.

d. The reviews are simply terrific. In fact, as of now, it remains perfectly fresh at RottenTomatoes with 59 reviews, and the average stands at 8.1.

As we could see from the all-time best Thanksgiving opening chart, Disney has a good track record for the frame. I do not expect another Tangled (and certainly not Toy Story 2), but a $35m 3-day and $50m 5-day similar to what Enchanted achieved looks very reasonable.

3. Happy Feet Two - $18.5m 3-day / $25m 5-day (-12.9%)

The original Happy Feet declined only 10.8% on its Thanksgiving weekend.  However, it enjoyed better word-of-mouth as well as faced much weaker competition, with only Deck the Halls targeting its demo, so expect the sequel to drop a little harder.

4. Arthur Christmas - $11m 3-day / $15m 5-day ($3,258 PTA)

Not much to say about the film other than I don't really like the signs for it: MTC tracking came in significantly lower than RS' (10.5 vs. mid-teen), low number of Flixster ratings (around 5,000), and weak advance sales.

-. Hugo - $5m 3-day / $7m 5-day ($3,915 PTA)

Financier Graham King's insistence on releasing Hugo this week may end up ranked as one of the very worst release date decisions of the year, if not many years.  The marketing effort has not been there to support generating the necessary buzz for the well-reviewed but harder-to-sell film from Martin Scorsese.  As a result, Hugo may perish before the excellent reviews could kick in to help its legs.  Paramount did realize the difficult task it is facing and limited the amount of theaters this week to 1,277 to leave space for expansion, but if the initial per-theater-average is mediocre, there might not be an expansion at all.

This will also be a week for the limited releases to shine.  Last week's darling The Descendants will continue to shine, and joining it includes The Artist, A Dangerous Method, and My Week with Marilyn, all fresh at RottenTomatoes.  I am most interested in The Artist's performance since on paper, it is the hardest one to sell being both black-and-white and silent, but it is also the one with the most Oscar buzz, with many predicting a Best Picture nomination coming in February.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Early Weekend Thoughts (Nov 11 - 13): Puss in Boots looks to 3-peat over Immortals, Jack and Jill, and J. Edgar

I will be traveling with family to Hawaii for 10 days starting tomorrow, and online time will be limited, so will post my thoughts on this weekend's top 5 now.

1. Puss in Boots - $30m (-9.2%)

Puss in Boots' leggy run should continue this weekend with the help of Veterans Day on Friday, as family films tend to perform exceptionally well on this holiday. The last time Veterans Day fell on Friday, Chicken Little turned a $2.23m Tuesday into a $31.7m weekend, thanks to a 81.8% Thursday jump and then a 285.4% Friday increase. Puss in Boots' second Tuesday of $2.43m is not only better than Chicken Little's by comparison, it is also better than what it earned a week ago, a very rare occurrence. Another superb hold should occur.

2. Immortals - $20m (New)

The general expectations on Immortals were relatively low given the recent failure of Conan the Barbarian ($10m opening) and The Three Musketeers ($8.7m). However, both tracking firms, Major Theater Chain and ReelSource, came in early this week and put its opening at around mid-$20m, indicating the appeal to 300 crowd could be working. On the other hand, Flixster shows 15,859 user ratings so far, not that strong for a film that is likely to see a user-rating-to-OW ratio of over 1,000. On the Twitter front, it is on track for about 15,000 tweets from Monday to Thursday, good but again not necessarily matching the tracking strength, as its tweets-to-Friday ratio should be close to 2,000, and with the catchy 11/11/11 release date and the inherent frontloading nature of the genre, a $8m Friday may not translate to a $20m weekend.

3. Tower Heist - $17m (-29.2%)

On the equivalent weekend in 2005, many holdovers saw excellent holds due to holiday. With good word-of-mouth and sneak-in business from 2 R-rated openers, look for Tower Heist to have a great sophomore frame.

4. Jack and Jill - $15m (New)

Simply not feeling the latest Adam Sandler release. The ads have not generated much interest, as it is stuck in a place that doesn't attract any particular demographics. It could very well be Sandler's second Little Nicky.

5. J. Edgar - $14m (New)

Outside Gran Torino, Clint Eastwood's recent offerings had experienced pretty similar runs: Hereafter, Invictus, Changeling, and Flags of Our Fathers all opened between $8.6m and $12.1m and finished with $32.7-37.5m total. The interests in J. Edgar appear to be higher due to the presence of Leonardo DiCaprio, but the worse reviews could cut its legs short, so expect a stronger start but weaker overall multiplier.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (10/31 - 11/06): Rise of the Planet of the Apes continued to dominate

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes(猩球崛起)88.5m ($13.93m)+32.1%82,8002,856,681155.5m ($24.47m)
2. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence(名侦探柯南:沉默的15分钟)19.7m ($3.10m)New19,408661,07319.7m ($3.10m)
3. Starry Starry Night(星空)10.7m ($1.68m)New14,527327,61710.7m ($1.68m)
4. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)7.8m ($1.23m)-68.8%16,234210,07271.3m ($11.20m)
5. Unknown(不明身份)7.6m ($1.20m)New16,160248,6097.6m ($1.20m)
6. Lost In Panic Cruise(密室之不可靠岸)6.3m ($0.99m)-37.2%17,782205,47916.33m ($2.57m)
7. The Warrior's Way(黄沙武士)4m ($0.63m)New9,851125,2744m ($0.63m)
8. Love on Credit(幸福额度)3.75m ($0.59m)-72.2%11,070115,27833.25m ($5.22m)
9. Sleepwalker in 3D(梦游)3.6m ($0.57m)-44.6%9,839107,39810.1m ($1.59m)
10. Interceptor(黑暗终结者)2.9m ($0.46m)New6,53495,8992.9m ($0.46m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1574)

Monday, November 7, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (10/24 - 10/30): Rise of the Planet of the Apes set new fall opening weekend record

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes(猩球崛起)67m ($10.54m)New42,0162,168,28467m ($10.54m)
2. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)25m ($3.93m)-35.1%43,994661,20063.5m ($9.97m)
3. Love on Credit(幸福额度)13.5m ($2.12m)-15.6%30,785418,08629.5m ($4.63m)
4. Lost In Panic Cruise(密室之不可靠岸)10.03m ($1.58m)New20,654324,70010.03m ($1.58m)
5. Limitless (永无止境)7.8m ($1.23m)-58.9%17,175251,53150.3m ($7.90m)
6. Sleepwalker in 3D(梦游)6.5m ($1.02m)New14,548186,9966.5m ($1.02m)
7. Sleepless Fashion(与时尚同居)3.4m ($0.53m)+21.4%12,819115,8036.2m ($0.97m)
8. Its Love(白蛇传说)3.2m ($0.50m)-75.4%7,998118,255206.2m ($32.33m)
9. Fake Identity(双重身份)2.3m ($0.36m)-65.2%7,15672,3048.9m ($1.39m)
10. 1911(辛亥革命)2.2m ($0.35m)-38.9%1,13569,66458.7m ($9.20m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1573)

China Weekly Box Office (10/17 - 10/23): Not very exciting start for Green Lantern

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)38.5m ($6.04m)New39,614991,75638.5m ($6.04m)
2. Limitless (永无止境)19m ($2.98m)-19.1%33,507610,53942.5m ($6.67m)
3. Love on Credit(幸福额度)16m ($2.51m)New24,627486,32216m ($2.51m)
4. Its Love(白蛇传说)13m ($2.04m)-58.7%24,097443,989203m ($31.83m)
5. Mural(画壁)9.1m ($1.43m)-68.4%20,805285,714180.9m ($26.93m)
6. Who Under The Bed(床下有人)6.6m ($1.03m)-12.0%17,192228,29414.1m ($2.21m)
7. Fake Identity(双重身份)6.6m ($1.03m)New16,092211,8786.6m ($1.03m)
8. Last Night(一夜迷情)4.2m ($0.66m)-20.8%11,949128,5189.5m ($1.49m)
9. 1911(辛亥革命)3.8m ($0.60m)-49.3%2,740122,26556.5m ($8.85m)
10. Sleepless Fashion(与时尚同居)2.8m ($0.44m)New6,41087,8842.8m ($0.44m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1568)

Sunday, November 6, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (10/10 - 10/16): Limitless performed above expectation

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Its Love(白蛇传说)31.5m ($4.95m)-60.6%50,993970,724190m ($29.79m)
2. Mural(画壁)28.8m ($4.52m)-65.3%46,663872,991171.8m ($26.93m)
3. Limitless (永无止境)23.5m ($3.69m)New26,562746,50523.5m ($3.69m)
4. 1911(辛亥革命)7.5m ($1.18m)-21.9%8,980240,73452.7m ($8.25m)
5. Who Under The Bed(床下有人)7.5m ($1.18m)New11,975256,0607.5m ($1.18m)
6. Last Night(一夜迷情)5.3m ($0.83m)New10,658160,5575.3m ($0.83m)
7. Sanctum(夺命深渊)4.6m ($0.72m)-72.9%5,992118,130117.1m ($18.35m)
8. I Phone You(爱封了)2.7m ($0.42m)New8,49581,1542.7m ($0.42m)
9. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)2.7m ($0.42m)-55.7%5,99080,64562.8m ($9.84m)
10. Love Sick(恋爱恐慌症)2.4m ($0.38m)New5,99477,1952.4m ($0.38m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1570)

China Weekly Box Office (10/03 - 10/09): Independence holiday week

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mural(画壁)83m ($13.01m)+38.3%70,8172,532,021143m ($22.41m)
2. Its Love(白蛇传说)80m ($12.54m)+1.9%78,5032,408,187158.5m ($24.84m)
3. The Dragon Knight(洛克王国!圣龙骑士)18m ($2.82m)+33.3%27,580658,13531.5m ($4.94m)
4. Sanctum(夺命深渊)17m ($2.67m)+8.3%12,963413,725112.5m ($17.63m)
5. 1911(辛亥革命)9.6m ($1.51m)-45.1%14,282285,12045.1m ($7.07m)
6. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)6.1m ($0.96m)-28.2%8,558173,83860.1m ($9.42m)
7. May Day 3DNA(五月天追梦3DNA)5.3m ($0.83m)-31.6%6,667132,96525.05m ($3.92m)
8. Lee's Adventures(李献计历险记)5m ($0.78m)+212.5%11,517152,9986.6m ($1.03m)
9. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)4m ($0.63m)-28.6%4,723104,87695.6m ($14.98m)
10. Love You You (夏日乐悠悠)2.4m ($0.38m)+89.0%6,92573,6643.67m ($0.58m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1568)

China Weekly Box Office (09/26 - 10/02): domestic films dominated; Sanctum ended as the highest September grosser

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Its Love(白蛇传说)78.5m ($12.30m)New53,0862,358,06578.5m ($12.30m)
2. Mural(画壁)60m ($9.40m)New39,9441,816,53060m ($9.40m)
3. 1911(辛亥革命)17.5m ($2.74m)-2.8%30,931537,30435.5m ($5.56m)
4. Sanctum(夺命深渊)15.7m ($2.46m)-28.6%15,900386,89095.5m ($14.96m)
5. The Dragon Knight(洛克王国!圣龙骑士)13.5m ($2.12m)New12,498484,56513.5m ($2.12m)
6. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)8.5m ($1.33m)-59.5%14,600235,65254m ($8.46m)
7. May Day 3DNA(五月天追梦3DNA)7.75m ($1.21m)-35.4%14,956198,76819.75m ($3.09m)
8. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)5.6m ($0.88m)-61.4%9,037154,10091.6m ($14.35m)
9. The Purple House(紫宅)4.2m ($0.66m)-31.1%12,927146,69910.3m ($1.62m)
10. Love in Space(全球热恋)2.3m ($0.36m)-77.7%6,17470,74766.6m ($10.43m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1567)

China Weekly Box Office (09/19 - 09/25): terrible start for 1911

Apologize for not updating numbers from China for a long time. Posting them now.

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Sanctum(夺命深渊)22m ($3.45m)-38.5%24,948535,93279.8m ($12.50m)
2. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)21m ($3.29m)-14.3%33,022557,17645.5m ($7.13m)
3. 1911(辛亥革命)18m ($2.82m)New23,489541,07718m ($2.82m)
4. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)14.5m ($2.27m)-60.3%23,789393,91486m ($13.47m)
5. May Day 3DNA(五月天追梦3DNA)12m ($1.88m)New13,701286,53212m ($1.88m)
6. Love in Space(全球热恋)10.3m ($1.61m)-61.9%21,204311,64964.3m ($10.07m)
7. The Purple House(紫宅)6.1m ($0.96m)New10,716203,7406.1m ($0.96m)
8. My Kingdom(大武生)6.1m ($0.96m)-71.0%16,958192,42948.1m ($7.54m)
9. Arthur et la guerre des deux mondes(亚瑟3)5.25m ($0.82m)New10,497188,2395.25m ($0.82m)
10. The Man from Nowhere(孤胆特工)5.1m ($0.80m)+2.0%15,218174,00210.1m ($1.58m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1566)

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 4 - 6): Tower Heist, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Puss in Boots27.0-20.8%
2. Tower Heist25.5$7,574 PTA
3. A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas16.0$5,565 PTA
4. Paranormal Activity 38.1-55.1%
5. In Time6.0-50.2%
6. Footloose3.8-30.9%
7. Real Steel3.2-33.1%
8. The Rum Diary3.1-39.6%
9. The Three Mustketeers2.2-37.3%
10. The Ides of March2.0-28.7%