Friday, October 28, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 28 - 30): Puss in Boots, In Time, The Rum Diary

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Puss in Boots50.0$12,652 PTA
2. Paranormal Activity 321.0-60.1%
3. In Time10.0$3,203 PTA
4. The Rum Diary7.5$3,301 PTA
5. Footloose6.3-39.1%
6. Real Steel6.0-44.6%
7. The Three Mustketeers4.7-45.8%
8. The Ides of March2.8-42.3%
9. Moneyball2.3-42.2%
10. Dolphin Tale2.0-52.6%

After one of THE most memorable World Series games I have ever seen and then a midnight movie (a pretty terrible one), it's 2:30am, and I will have to give a short version of my predictions again. Just want to emphasize a few things:

1. Having a Game 7 is bad news for Friday box office. The World Series may have seen rating declines in recent years, but this is still Game 7, the first one since 2002. Also from what we saw on Tuesday, where no baseball game contributed to better-than-normal increases across the board, even a 10-15% rating translates to a good chunk of the audience. Male-oriented films will see the most noticeable effect, with Moneyball being the leading candidate to get hit the hardest, but even Puss in Boots will get impacted some as families could easily decide to push it to Saturday.

2. The signs for Puss in Boots are very strong, from tracking (MTC coming in way higher than RS, $48m vs. $38m), Box Office Mojo poll (~26% Opening Weekend interest), and tweets (~7,400 from Monday to Thursday, when the ratio for a non-Pixar animated film normally hovers in the 500-600 range). Below is a table showing the BOM polls of other similar films:

MovieBOM Opening Weekend %Sometime in Theaters %Opening Weekend Gross
Shrek Forever After23.7%23.6%$70.8m
How to Train Your Dragon22.5%24.0%$43.7m
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa21.5%17.7%$63.1m
Monsters Vs. Aliens27.7%26.0%$59.3m
Ice Age: The Meltdown29.2%24.8%$68.0m
Shark Tale26.5%28.0%$47.6m
Bee Movie18.2%22.0%$38.0m

3. In Time, on the other hand, is showing quite a bit of weakness when we consider its sci-fi genre. Its BOM poll is weaker than what Source Code received, and around 7,500 tweets Mon-to-Thurs for the genre tends to mean a sub-$5m Friday.

4. Last weekend, many holdovers, in various degrees, were benefited from Paranormal Activities 3's popularity and the sneak-in business it generated.  They won't receive such boost this frame, so expect some heavier drops.

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