Friday, October 21, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 21 - 23): Paranormal Activity 3, The Three Mustketeers, Johnny English Reborn, The Mighty Macs

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Paranormal Activity 348.5$14,604 PTA
2. The Three Mustketeers12.0$3,977 PTA
3. Real Steel10.3-36.8%
4. Footloose8.5-45.4%
5. Johnny English Reborn7.7$4,965 PTA
6. The Ides of March5.0-29.7%
7. Dolphin Tale4.4-29.4%
8. Moneyball3.7-32.2%
9. The Thing3.0-64.7%
10. 50/502.9-31.9%
-. The Mighty Macs1.1$1,128 PTA

The signs could hardly look any better for Paranormal Activity 3. Its Box Office Mojo poll shows 23.6% Opening Weekend votes, higher than what either Paranormal Activity 2 (20.3% OW) or Jackass 3D (18.8%) received. The number of tweets it generated this week is even more impressive, averaging over 40,000 a day and simply one of the best performers we have ever seen. Its advance sales also accounted for a higher percentage of the total sales than what those two films had on their respective pre-release Wednesdays. Then the fact that Major Theater Chain tracking came in significantly higher than ReelSource's, $38m vs. $30m, echoed a potential breakout start of $45m+. Each of the last three years, we saw the top 12 films on this equivalent frame to gross at least $105m combined; with the current weakness in the market and other new wide releases not expecting to perform well, the condition is ripe for Paranormal Activity 3 to make a run at $50m this weekend.

Ever since the first trailer, which feels to be a long time ago, The Three Musketeers has taunted the fact it is shot in 3D instead of being post-converted. However, the climate for 3D films has cooled down significantly, and period action is not a genre people associate with 3D, so having it could turn off even more viewers. Look for a low-teen opening at best.

Johnny English Reborn is sort of the wild card of the weekend. The buzz appears minimal, but its BOM poll is actually a little better than what Mr. Bean's Holiday had: 11.2% OW vs. 9.6%. Reborn's international gross has been on par with Mr. Bean's Holiday as well, and the latter opened to $9.6m in 1,714 theaters domestically. The market also hasn't seen a PG-rated film since Dolphin Tale a month ago, so a small overperformance could be in store.

The Mighty Macs reminds me of The Final Season and Gracie, and a figure in between feels reasonable.


  1. Great analysis, Xia. Couldn't agree more, we have pretty identical predictions for the new openers.

  2. Hi Xia do you have any predictions for Puss in Boots this wknd?