Friday, October 28, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 28 - 30): Puss in Boots, In Time, The Rum Diary

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Puss in Boots50.0$12,652 PTA
2. Paranormal Activity 321.0-60.1%
3. In Time10.0$3,203 PTA
4. The Rum Diary7.5$3,301 PTA
5. Footloose6.3-39.1%
6. Real Steel6.0-44.6%
7. The Three Mustketeers4.7-45.8%
8. The Ides of March2.8-42.3%
9. Moneyball2.3-42.2%
10. Dolphin Tale2.0-52.6%

After one of THE most memorable World Series games I have ever seen and then a midnight movie (a pretty terrible one), it's 2:30am, and I will have to give a short version of my predictions again. Just want to emphasize a few things:

1. Having a Game 7 is bad news for Friday box office. The World Series may have seen rating declines in recent years, but this is still Game 7, the first one since 2002. Also from what we saw on Tuesday, where no baseball game contributed to better-than-normal increases across the board, even a 10-15% rating translates to a good chunk of the audience. Male-oriented films will see the most noticeable effect, with Moneyball being the leading candidate to get hit the hardest, but even Puss in Boots will get impacted some as families could easily decide to push it to Saturday.

2. The signs for Puss in Boots are very strong, from tracking (MTC coming in way higher than RS, $48m vs. $38m), Box Office Mojo poll (~26% Opening Weekend interest), and tweets (~7,400 from Monday to Thursday, when the ratio for a non-Pixar animated film normally hovers in the 500-600 range). Below is a table showing the BOM polls of other similar films:

MovieBOM Opening Weekend %Sometime in Theaters %Opening Weekend Gross
Shrek Forever After23.7%23.6%$70.8m
Megamind21.4%25.4%$46.0m
How to Train Your Dragon22.5%24.0%$43.7m
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa21.5%17.7%$63.1m
Monsters Vs. Aliens27.7%26.0%$59.3m
Ice Age: The Meltdown29.2%24.8%$68.0m
Shark Tale26.5%28.0%$47.6m
Bee Movie18.2%22.0%$38.0m

3. In Time, on the other hand, is showing quite a bit of weakness when we consider its sci-fi genre. Its BOM poll is weaker than what Source Code received, and around 7,500 tweets Mon-to-Thurs for the genre tends to mean a sub-$5m Friday.

4. Last weekend, many holdovers, in various degrees, were benefited from Paranormal Activities 3's popularity and the sneak-in business it generated.  They won't receive such boost this frame, so expect some heavier drops.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 21 - 23): Paranormal Activity 3, The Three Mustketeers, Johnny English Reborn, The Mighty Macs

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Paranormal Activity 348.5$14,604 PTA
2. The Three Mustketeers12.0$3,977 PTA
3. Real Steel10.3-36.8%
4. Footloose8.5-45.4%
5. Johnny English Reborn7.7$4,965 PTA
6. The Ides of March5.0-29.7%
7. Dolphin Tale4.4-29.4%
8. Moneyball3.7-32.2%
9. The Thing3.0-64.7%
10. 50/502.9-31.9%
-. The Mighty Macs1.1$1,128 PTA

The signs could hardly look any better for Paranormal Activity 3. Its Box Office Mojo poll shows 23.6% Opening Weekend votes, higher than what either Paranormal Activity 2 (20.3% OW) or Jackass 3D (18.8%) received. The number of tweets it generated this week is even more impressive, averaging over 40,000 a day and simply one of the best performers we have ever seen. Its advance sales also accounted for a higher percentage of the total sales than what those two films had on their respective pre-release Wednesdays. Then the fact that Major Theater Chain tracking came in significantly higher than ReelSource's, $38m vs. $30m, echoed a potential breakout start of $45m+. Each of the last three years, we saw the top 12 films on this equivalent frame to gross at least $105m combined; with the current weakness in the market and other new wide releases not expecting to perform well, the condition is ripe for Paranormal Activity 3 to make a run at $50m this weekend.

Ever since the first trailer, which feels to be a long time ago, The Three Musketeers has taunted the fact it is shot in 3D instead of being post-converted. However, the climate for 3D films has cooled down significantly, and period action is not a genre people associate with 3D, so having it could turn off even more viewers. Look for a low-teen opening at best.

Johnny English Reborn is sort of the wild card of the weekend. The buzz appears minimal, but its BOM poll is actually a little better than what Mr. Bean's Holiday had: 11.2% OW vs. 9.6%. Reborn's international gross has been on par with Mr. Bean's Holiday as well, and the latter opened to $9.6m in 1,714 theaters domestically. The market also hasn't seen a PG-rated film since Dolphin Tale a month ago, so a small overperformance could be in store.

The Mighty Macs reminds me of The Final Season and Gracie, and a figure in between feels reasonable.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 14 - 16): Footloose, The Thing, The Big Year

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Real Steel17.5-35.9%
2. Footloose17.0$4,790 PTA
3. The Thing11.5$3,837 PTA
4. The Ides of March6.5-37.9%
5. Dolphin Tale6.3-31.0%
6. Moneyball4.9-34.3%
7. The Big Year4.5$2,093 PTA
8. 50/503.8-32.8%
9. Courageous3.1-36.3%
10. Dream House2.5-44.1%

Friday, October 7, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 7 - 9): Real Steel, The Ides of March

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Real Steel24.5$7,122 PTA
2. The Ides of March11.5$5,230 PTA
3. Dolphin Tale10.5-24.5%
4. Moneyball7.5-37.7%
5. 50/505.5-36.4%
6. Courageous5.3-41.5%
7. Dream House4.3-47.1%
8. The Lion King 3D3.5-67.0%
9. Abduction3.1-44.7%
10. What's Your Number3.0-44.7%
11. Contagion2.8-42.9%
12. Killer Elite2.6-47.1%

(Sorry that I didn't really have any time to write tonight; just did some quick calculations from my charts.)