Friday, September 23, 2011

Weekend Box Office (Sep 23 - 25): Dolphin Tale, Moneyball, Killer Elite, Abduction

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Lion King 3D18.0-40.3%
2. Dolphin Tale16.5$4,705 PTA
3. Moneyball16.0$5,346 PTA
4. Killer Elite11.0$3,684 PTA
5. Abduction10.0$3,207 PTA
6. Contagion8.5-41.6%
7. Drive5.5-51.5%
8. The Help4.8-26.3%
9. I Don't Know How She Does It2.5-43.2%
10. Straw Dogs2.3-55.1%

Won't be able to write in details this week, so just want to point out that September has never seen top 12 films to gross over $100m combined (unadjusted to inflation); the highest was 9 years ago when Sweet Home Alabama set September's opening weekend record with $35.7m to help the top 12 gross $91.8m together. With the 8 holdovers looking set to grab at least $40m, it is unlikely that the four openers will total over $60m, and with Dolphin Tale poised to outperform the initial expectations, one, or maybe even two, of the other three could disappoint. Also I don't expect Drive to hold all that well with its C- CinemaScore and fierce new competitions for its demo.

2 comments:

  1. Interesting weekend ahead for sure. I'm significantly higher on Moneyball and Lion King. The former is a bit trickier given the subject matter, but the latter has shown some good weekday holds this week and when I was looking back at the Toy Story re-release, as well as Legend of the Guardians and Cloudy With A Chance..., they all posted strong Fri-to-Fri holds. Granted, Lion King is a re-release but that Saturday jump last weekend indicated to me that it wasn't too front-loaded to prevent a $21-24m 2nd weekend.

    That said, you make a great point about the lack of $100m weekends in September. Something is going to get hit this frame, I'm just not sure what yet. I suspect it'll be Abduction and Killer Elite, possibly even Dolphin Tale considering the popularity and buzz the Lion re-release.

    Its good to be on different sides of the fence from time-to-time though. :)

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  2. The problem with Lion King is Dolphin Tale. When Cloudy faced Toy Story re-release, its Friday increase got reduced by 27%. With a smaller Monday drop, The Lion King's Friday jump should also be smaller to begin with, and Dolphin Tale will depress a little more. I'm thinking a 130% Friday increase.

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