| Movie | Predicted Gross (m) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1. The Lion King 3D | 18.0 | -40.3% |
| 2. Dolphin Tale | 16.5 | $4,705 PTA |
| 3. Moneyball | 16.0 | $5,346 PTA |
| 4. Killer Elite | 11.0 | $3,684 PTA |
| 5. Abduction | 10.0 | $3,207 PTA |
| 6. Contagion | 8.5 | -41.6% |
| 7. Drive | 5.5 | -51.5% |
| 8. The Help | 4.8 | -26.3% |
| 9. I Don't Know How She Does It | 2.5 | -43.2% |
| 10. Straw Dogs | 2.3 | -55.1% |
Won't be able to write in details this week, so just want to point out that September has never seen top 12 films to gross over $100m combined (unadjusted to inflation); the highest was 9 years ago when Sweet Home Alabama set September's opening weekend record with $35.7m to help the top 12 gross $91.8m together. With the 8 holdovers looking set to grab at least $40m, it is unlikely that the four openers will total over $60m, and with Dolphin Tale poised to outperform the initial expectations, one, or maybe even two, of the other three could disappoint. Also I don't expect Drive to hold all that well with its C- CinemaScore and fierce new competitions for its demo.
Interesting weekend ahead for sure. I'm significantly higher on Moneyball and Lion King. The former is a bit trickier given the subject matter, but the latter has shown some good weekday holds this week and when I was looking back at the Toy Story re-release, as well as Legend of the Guardians and Cloudy With A Chance..., they all posted strong Fri-to-Fri holds. Granted, Lion King is a re-release but that Saturday jump last weekend indicated to me that it wasn't too front-loaded to prevent a $21-24m 2nd weekend.
ReplyDeleteThat said, you make a great point about the lack of $100m weekends in September. Something is going to get hit this frame, I'm just not sure what yet. I suspect it'll be Abduction and Killer Elite, possibly even Dolphin Tale considering the popularity and buzz the Lion re-release.
Its good to be on different sides of the fence from time-to-time though. :)
The problem with Lion King is Dolphin Tale. When Cloudy faced Toy Story re-release, its Friday increase got reduced by 27%. With a smaller Monday drop, The Lion King's Friday jump should also be smaller to begin with, and Dolphin Tale will depress a little more. I'm thinking a 130% Friday increase.
ReplyDelete