Friday, September 9, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 9 - 11): Contagion, The Warrior, Bucky Larson

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Contagion24.2$7,500 PTA
2. The Help9.5-34.9%
3. The Warrior6.5$3,500 PTA
4. The Debt5.9-40.5%
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes4.9-38.1%
6. Colombiana4.1-45.1%
7. Apollo 183.5-59.8%
8. Shark Night 3D3.1-63.1%
9. Our Idiot Brother2.7-50.5%
10. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World2.4-50.2%
-. Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star1.7$1,133 PTA

The signs for Contagion are looking quite good. Having Major Theater Chain's tracking a healthy percentage higher than the one from ReelSource, 30 vs. high-teen, is always nice. Even though the previous "rule" of the actual gross being even higher than MTC's in such circumstance has not been accurate lately, it is at least indicative of a number in between. The Box Office Mojo poll of 26.9% Opening Weekend interest is excellent for an adult-oriented film. By comparison, Ocean's Thirteen had 27.6%, The Adjustment Bureau 23.5%, Green Zone 19.3%, and The Informant 15.7%. It also occupied 14% of Fandango's tickets sale on Thursday, up from 8% the previous day, and the reviews are positive enough to not deter the last-minute deciders. Expect a per-theater-average around $7,500 for a $24-25m opening.  

The Warrior, on the other hand, is facing a uphill battle despite excellent reviews. The fighting genre is not known for big openings, and there is little star power in the cast. Having MTC come in significantly lower than RS, 8 vs. mid-teen, is a serious concern, as the rule works a larger percentage of time in this case and points to a sub-$8m start. The BOM poll of 11.0% OW interest is lower than The Fighter's 16.1% and just a bit higher than Pride & Glory's 9.7%. Undisputed, another comparable film, opened to a $4,127 PTA in 1,102 theaters, while The Protector had $3,266 PTA in 1,541. With the screen competition The Warrior is facing, a higher average in the $5K range appears unlikely. I do hope I am wrong, but at this time I am feeling a rather disappointing first punch.  

Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star reminds me a lot of The Rocker, Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story, Let's Go to Prison, and Grandma's Boy. I understand MTC has it pretty high at $5.5m, but with a tiny 2.2% OW interest at BOM, lower than any of those films received, I cannot see a PTA over $2,000.

A couple of factors could make this Sunday a bad day at the box office: the opening week of NFL regular reason and the 10th anniversary of 9/11. On the equivalent weekend last year, the top 10 films dropped an average of 44.9% Saturday-to-Sunday, with 3 declining over 50%. The 9/11 effect could add a few more percentages, and look for the Sunday night game in New York between Cowboys and Jets to score big rating. Combining it with the fact that last Sunday was helped immensely by the Labor Day holiday, we should see some higher-than-normal drops for holdovers.

No comments:

Post a Comment