Friday, August 5, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 5 - 7): Rise of the Planet of the Apes, The Change-Up

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes34.0$9,320 PTA
2. The Smurfs19.0-46.6%
3. The Change-Up16.05,493 PTA
4. Cowboys & Aliens15.6-57.2%
5. Captain America: The First Avenger12.6-50.7%
6. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 211.9-45.9%
7. Crazy, Stupid, Love.11.8-38.2%
8. Friends with Benefits4.9-47.2%
9. Horrible Bosses4.2-41.6%
10. Transformers: Dark of the Moon3.2-47.4%

Comparing to what I observed on Tuesday night, the signs for Rise of the Planet of the Apes have generally improved, while the ones for The Change-Up have gotten a bit worse. Apes saw the opening weekend interests at BOM poll strengthen to 35.8%, its Twitter traffic exploded on Thursday to finish with over 14,000 tweets Monday-to-Thursday, and a daily average of +2,100 "Want-to-see" ratings at Flixster. However, as you may have noticed, my prediction actually went down from the initial one I gave. The reason is that even with the improved numbers, it remains mediocre for a film of the sci-fi genre with built-in audience. The # of votes at Flixster could reach 30,000 by Friday (currently at 27,778 as of 10:53pm PST Thursday night), but it is still closer to Super 8 than to Cowboys & Aliens, and it should most likely have a higher votes-to-opening-weekend ratio than the former. The advance sales have not been strong either, as it accounted for only 15% of the sales on Fandango by Thursday afternoon. Overall, I feel a $12-13m Friday is in store for a $33-35m opening frame. It would need to rely on its good word-of-mouth to leg out a $100m+ total.

The reviews for The Change-Up have really gone south (25% with 51 reviews at Rottentomatoes), and the interests look to be dipping as well. The BOM poll currently stands at 9.8% OW and 15.4% Sometime in Theaters. On the Flixster front, it only gained around 900 new votes a day to put its count so far at just above 15,000, so it may not catch Crazy, Stupid, Love, and for a R-rated comedy vs. CSL's PG-13 rating, that is not promising as The Change-Up will definitely end up with a higher ratio. A $6m Friday and an IM a bit worse than Friends with Benefits' will yield a $16m weekend.

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