Friday, August 19, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 19 - 21): Fright Night, Spy Kids 4, Conan the Barbarian, and One Day

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Help20.6-20.9%
2. Rise of the Planet of the Apes15.5-44.3%
3. Fright Night14.0$4,496 PTA
4. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World11.0$3,338 PTA
5. Conan the Barbarian10.5$3,482 PTA
6. The Smurfs7.9-42.5%
7. Final Destination 56.8-62.3%
8. 30 Minutes or Less5.5-58.7%
9. One Day5.5$3,200 PTA
10. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 24.0-44.8%

Don't really have much time to analyze all the numbers in details as I just got back from a 3-day family vacation to Lake Tahoe. Basically going with my original instinct that all openers will underperform, and The Help will have a Bridemaids type of hold with its A+ CinemaScore. Nothing in the past several days, from the daily figures, the polls, as well as the advance sales, has changed my feeling. By late August, the top 12 will normally see their gross combined drop to $110m or lower. With July and the first couple of weekends in August being as robust as they are, we are due for a fallback where the new openers are not appealing enough to generate much excitement. Fright Night is the only one with upside potential, as it has gathered good reviews and delivered decent numbers at Box Office Mojo poll.

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