Friday, July 8, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 8 - 10): Horrible Bosses, Zookeeper

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Transformers: Dark of the Moon46.5-52.5%
2. Horrible Bosses30.4$10,000 PTA
3. Zookeeper22.6$6,500 PTA
4. Cars 214.4-45.2%
5. Bad Teacher8.3-42.8%
6. Larry Crowne7.8-40.4%
7. Super 84.9-38.1%
8. Monte Carlo4.2-43.7%
9. Green Lantern3.6-45.1%
10. Mr. Popper's Penguins3.2-42.2%

The two wide releases this week look to reaffirm a couple of the main box office themes for the summer: strong performances by the R-rated comedies and underachievement of the family-oriented films. First, let us compare the Box Office Mojo polls of Horrible Bosses with similar summer entries from the past:

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
The Hangover$45.0m23.9%21.6%
Wedding Crashers$33.9m17.2%23.6%
Bad Teacher$31.6m17.9%19.1%
Knocked Up$30.7m21.0%22.4%
Dinner for Schmucks$23.5m15.9%23.2%
Horrible Bosses?20.4%20.4%

As we could see, Horrible Bosses came out rather well, and $30m appears very much achievable. On the other hand, here is the comparison for Zookeeper:

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
Paul Blart: Mall Cop$31.8m7.2%11.6%
Evan Almighty$31.2m17.3%25.7%
Land of the Lost$18.8m14.3%21.2%
Mr. Popper's Penguins$18.4m6.6%11.6%
Yogi Bear (3D)$16.4m5.1%10.3%

The numbers show Zookeeper trails Evan Almighty and Land of the Lost by a significant margin and is even a little worse than what Mr. Popper's Penguins had. However, we have to note that the one outlier in this chart, Paul Blart, happens to star Kevin James too. With it and Grown Ups, James has demonstrated ability to attract more audience outside the online crowd than a similar film without him would typical get, so a benefit of the doubt is warranted.

To project holdovers' performances, we could look for similar films from 2005, the last time July 4th fell on a Monday. For example, Larry Crowne's demo follows closely with Cinderella Man, and its daily changes post holiday resemble what Cinderella Man had as well. Expect a 80% Friday increase and a 3.2+ IM. Herbie: Fully Loaded would be a good comparison for Monte Carlo. A 5% Thursday decline, followed by a 30% Friday increase and 2.73 IM would give it a $4.2m weekend, decent hold given the steep drop the film experienced on its initial Saturday. For Green Lantern, we may look at Revenge of the Sith, as it also had to face a new release from its own studio. Revenge of the Sith did not lose as many screens as Green Lantern will, but Warner Bros is more aggressive than Fox in term of finding ways to boost its existing film' gross when a new one comes out, so the factors could offset each other, leaving Green Lantern to have a much better hold than it had shown the previous couple of weekends.

In the end, Transformers 3 will have no trouble claiming the top spot for the second frame in a row. It has followed War of the Worlds' dailies pretty closely, and it is facing less competition as well as enjoying better word-of-mouth. That should result in a slightly better hold for another $46m+ weekend.

1 comment:

  1. Great analysis Xia. I too am thinking (hoping) Transformers falls less than 55%. I sill think Zookeeper will open higher than 25, but we're not that far apart.