Friday, July 29, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 29 - 31): Cowboys & Aliens, The Smurfs, and Crazy, Stupid, Love

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Cowboys & Aliens37.0$9,867 PTA
2. Captain America: The First Avenger28.0-57.0%
3. The Smurfs26.0$7,658 PTA
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 223.0-51.5%
5. Crazy, Stupid, Love.14.5$4,801 PTA
6. Friends with Benefits10.4-44.2%
7. Horrible Bosses7.4-37.7%
8. Transformers: Dark of the Moon6.6-45.2%
9. Zookeeper5.0-42.5%
10. Cars 23.0-47.0%


  1. Looks like we're really close on most films. The Smurfs is one of the hardest calls in awhile I felt. I'm hoping the online buzz has partly been inflated by 80's generation nostalgia and doesn't translate into a $35m+ opening for Smurfs.

  2. We're already going higher than most on The Smurfs. It just strikes me as a film closer to Hop and Alvin than Yogi Bear. To me, the nostalgia factor could have overcome any negative reviews it would get, but I didn't anticipate them to be this bad, to the point where I think it will in fact impact box office some. I, for one, won't be seeing the film after anticipating it for so long. It would have easily cleared $30m if the reviews have just been average like 40% RT, and they may have had a $200m film in hand if it had gotten excellent reviews.