Friday, July 22, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 22 - 24): Captain America: The First Avenger, Friends with Benefits

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Captain America: The First Avenger57.0$15,343 PTA
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 250.0-70.4%
3. Friends with Benefits21.1$7,211 PTA
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon12.0-43.7%
5. Horrible Bosses11.0-38.1%
6. Zookeeper9.0-27.0%
7. Cars 25.1-39.3%
8. Winnie the Pooh5.0-36.4%
9. Bad Teacher3.1-39.8%
10. Midnight in Paris1.4-25.4%

Since the last time I wrote my thoughts on the openers, Friends with Benefit saw its BOM poll dipped a bit to 12.0% Opening Weekend and 14.9% Sometime in Theaters, and the buzz has not seemed to pick up much from earlier in the week, so I am lowering my prediction on it a little. The BOM poll has stayed virtually the same for Captain America: The First Avenger, but early reviews (71% at Rottentomatoes so far with 82 reviews) have been good outside the universal bash on the unnecessary 3D post conversion, and for a movie that appeals to adults, it could help bring in some viewers sitting on the fence. The latest advance sales report indicates its Friday could be between what Green Lantern ($21.4m) and Thor ($25.5m) had. Being in July, the Friday-to-Saturday hold will be closer to the former than the latter, although the expected good word-of-mouth should help. Something over $55m looks doable, although I am still not sold on $60m.

After a record setting start and an excellent Monday, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 has fallen back from the pace of The Dark Knight or Pirates of the Caribbean 2 to the pace that a Harry Potter film normally see the last couple of days. Now the question is how well it could rebound on the weekend:

MovieWed-to-ThursThurs-to-FriWeekend IM
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix-9.7%+34.1%3.18
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince-8.8%+36.1%3.16
The Dark Knight-10.4%+41.1%3.24
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest-12.7%+50.1%3.36

Given the aging of Harry Potter fans, the finale could see a small improvement in Friday increase over the last two HP summer releases, but it is also facing the most serious competition on the second weekend among these films (Pirates 2 faced the least competition). A 8% Thursday drop, 39% Friday increase, and 3.18 multiplier would put it around $50m.

It's good news/bad news for Transformers 3: on one hand, it will lose more 3D screens, something that has helped it more than any other blockbusters this summer, but on the other hand, the film that will take away its screens is from the same studio. The two could offset each other in some degree, leaving it to have a 4th weekend drop similar to what the previous two Transformers experienced.

Both openers will provide some direct competition against Horrible Bosses, but like how Bridesmaids handled The Hangover Part II (-20.7%, basically the same as the week before), or how Bad Teacher dealt with Horrible Bosses (-38.5%, despite weaker word-of-mouth and previous weekend being a holiday), Horrible Bosses itself should march on just fine and will eventually join the other three R-rated comedies in the $100m+ club. Zookeeper has so far closely followed the path of Journey to the Center of the Earth, which survived another record-setter, The Dark Knight, on its sophomore frame and then turned in a superb third weekend hold. Zookeeper will face tougher competition from the new releases, but look for it to achieve something similar.

1 comment:

  1. i think Harry Potter could still fetch anywhere between 60-70 million!!

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