Tuesday, July 19, 2011

First Looks at This Week's Openers

For Captain America: The First Avenger:

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiTMTC TrackingReelSource Tracking
Thor$65.7m53.6%26.9%62High 50s
Green Lantern$53.2m39.4%25.1%58Low 50s
The Green Hornet$40.0m (4-day)31.0%24.0%42High 30s
Captain America: The First Avenger?41.8%29.9%50High 40s

There are other similar superhero movies to compare with such as The Incredible Hulk and Fantastic Four, but I picked the three above because they're the closest to Captain America in release date, making the Box Office Mojo poll comparison more meaningful, none is a sequel, and all of them have 3D. As we see, the poll numbers fall between Thor and Green Lantern, but much closer to the latter. Does this mean it will open in the mid-50s range? Not necessarily, as Green Lantern has more appeal to the younger audience and thus could see a bit weaker online poll numbers while still opening to the same amount of gross. Captain America would need the Opening Weekend percentage in the 45% range to feel comfortable about a $55m start. As it stands now, something close to $50m appears more likely. This is echoed by the tracking figures. Interestingly, MTC came in higher than RS for the other three movies on the chart as well, but none of them saw significant differences between the two, and the actual opening stayed close to the tracking for all.

Captain America did have a strong start on Twitter, with 4,706 tweets on Monday. However, a great deal of buzz was generated by its upcoming premiere at ComicCon, so its ratio will definitely be higher than what those three films had. With that in mind, the start isn't suggesting a Friday figure bigger than the low 20s. The strength of Harry Potter finale and to some degree Transformers 3, as well as the 3D fatigue, are two main hurdles Captain America may find hard to overcome.

For Friends with Benefits:

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiTMTC TrackingReelSource Tracking
Bad Teacher$31.6m17.9%19.1%25Low 20s
Horrible Bosses$28.3m20.5%20.0%27Mid 20s
Bridesmaids$26.2m13.4%14.4%11Mid teens
No Strings Attached$19.7m10.0%12.3%20Mid 20s
Friends with Benefits?13.5%15.2%21Low 20s

Among the films listed, Horrible Bosses had the best BOM poll but didn't open to as well as Bad Teacher did and just slightly better than Bridesmaids' start. That's because in term of male-female ratio, it appealed to males the most, while Bridesmaids was at the opposite end of the spectrum with its female appeals. Friends with Benefits is somewhere in the middle, so having a poll breakdown similar to Bridesmaids' means it will not open as high. No Strings Attached, in fact, should be the best comparison, and the stronger poll for Friends with Benefits is good news.

Early Predictions:

Captain America: The First Avenger - $51m
Friends with Benefits - $22m

2 comments:

  1. I was surprised that HPOT8's Monday was 18M and not 15M or less. My suggestion that it could do 60-65M this coming weekend drew on PIRT2 as a model; it did 62M in its second weekend in July 2006 off of a 136M opening. PIRT2's first M and T were 18M and 15M; so an 18-24-18 second weekend for HPOT8 doesn't seem that outlandish too me.

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  2. It won't have as high a Friday increase as PIRT2 though. The Thurs-to-Friday increase of last two July HP releases on this equivalent weekend: HPOT5 - +34.1%, HPOT6 - +36.1%.

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