Friday, June 3, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 3 - 5): X-Men: First Class

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. X-Men: First Class61.0$16,754 PTA
2. The Hangover Part II34.0-60.6%
3. Kung Fu Panda 225.0-47.5%
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides20.0-49.8%
5. Bridesmaids12.0-27.5%
6. Thor5.2-45.5%
7. Fast Five3.4-47.0%
8. Midnight in Paris2.4+24.4%
9. Jumping the Broom0.9-50.6%
10. Something Borrowed0.8-57.0%

We are seeing mixed signs for X-Men: First Class. On the positive side, the Box Office Mojo poll is excellent with 57.6% Opening Weekend, on par with Wolverine's 57.4%. However, BOM poll has become more inflated for films targeting younger males since 2 years ago. The movie is also receiving some of the better reviews of the year for a wide release with 86% at Rottentomatoes, and that could help attract back some of the more reluctant fans. On the other hand, an average of 7.4 there and a 66 from Metacritic indicate most reviews are just positive instead of outright raves. In addition, the stigma from poor word-of-mouth received by the previous two entries of the series (2.28 multiplier for The Last Stand and 2.11 for Wolverine) remains strong. As Batman Begins demonstrated, the initial reboot could see more subdued opening but better legs after the WOM spread, and the second film after the reboot is the one to truly take advantage and bring back all the fans and then some. On the Twitter front, it showed good result on Wednesday, but a 40,000 tweets still only point to a $25m Friday start, as its ratio will certainly be bigger than what Thor (1,184) had and closer to Iron Man 2's level (1,858). Given this is in June and the consistent level of frontloadedness for X-Men films, the internal multiplier should not be higher than 2.5.

As expected, The Hangover Part II has seen steady declines each day since its opening, and it is looking at a sizable sophomore drop. If it follows Knocked Up's equivalent Wednesday-to-weekend multiplier, it will earn $34m this frame; if it follows The Hangover's trajectory, $31m; Get Him to the Greek, $28m. The Hangover Part II is released a week earlier than those three films, so it could enjoy a bigger Friday increase as not all students are off from school yet, but on the other hand, outside Get Him to the Greek, which had to deal with combined $81m from The Karate Kid and The A-Team, the other two did not face as severe a competition as The Hangover Part II will from X-Men: First Class. A 60% loss in attendance feels reasonable.

More surprisingly, Kung Fu Panda 2 has not enjoyed good daily holds either. After being down 6% from Madagascar on Friday, it was an alarming 21% worse on Wednesday. Friday increases for animated films in early June have been steady in the past: Up - +111.9%, Shrek the Third - +111.3%, Over the Hedge - +107.2%, and Madagascar - +122.2%, so the likelihood of having a much stronger jump for Panda 2, something it would need to avoid a 45% drop from last weekend, is small. It is shaping up to be quite a disappointing run domestically for the film, although internationally it is a totally opposite story and should be more than good enough to see the third installment green-lighted.

No comments:

Post a Comment