Friday, June 10, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 10 - 12): Super 8, Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer, Midnight in Paris

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Super 825.0$7,400 PTA
2. X-Men: First Class23.0-58.3%
3. Kung Fu Panda 216.0-33.0%
4. The Hangover Part II15.0-52.2%
5. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides11.5-35.9%
6. Bridesmaids9.5-21.1%
7. Midnight in Paris6.5+134.7%
8. Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer3.3$1,300 PTA
9. Thor2.5-41.2%
10. Fast Five3.4-43.1%

After watching Super 8 with friends on Thursday night in a half-empty IMAX theater - Metreon in San Francisco, a place where such a film should have been very popular, I am more than convinced of a sub-$30m opening, and in the mean time, I could also understand why Paramount has had great trouble selling the film to the general audience. It is simply not an easy movie to sell, and keeping the plot rather secretive may have been the best approach anyway since there really isn't much in the film to make people excited. It does not feel like a big summer movie, nor did it purposely try to be one. The story could feel slow for viewers who were expecting a lot of actions going in (there aren't many), and some parts could be too scary for the younger audience. The expectations after the initial teaser were just unrealistic in retrospect. I also no longer feel confident about its long term legs, as a CinemaScore of B- would not surprise me. It is not a film where friends will tell each other that they have to see it, and crossing over to attract the female audience could be proven to be difficult.

Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer has not seen much promotion from Relativity, and it is reflected on both the online activities and advance sales. The Box Office Mojo poll of 1.5% Opening Weekend interest is one of the worst ever even for a genre that is known to have weak figures there, and historically, once the OW% dips below 2%, a sub-$2K PTA becomes likely.

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