Friday, May 13, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 13 - 15): Bridesmaids, Priest

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Thor32.0-51.3%
2. Fast Five18.3-43.6%
3. Priest16.7$5,831 PTA
4. Bridesmaids15.0$5,142 PTA
5. Something Borrowed8.0-42.6%
6. Jumping the Broom7.0-54.0%
7. Rio5.5-35.3%
8. Water for Elephants3.5-42.3%
9. Madea's Big Happy Family1.9-54.5%
10. Soul Surfer1.3-43.7%

Great, Blogger came back, but lost my previous "Early Weekend Forecast" post. Oh well, for people who have read it, you probably noticed the change in my Bridesmaids prediction since Wednesday. I upped it due to improvement at both BOM poll and Twitter as well as good advance sales. Another breakdown of interest for each quadrant also showed it's appealing almost exclusively to women, and that makes the online figures more impressive when you compare them with other R-rated comedies with female leads.

Look like I'm one of the few to still have some faith in Priest. Legion remains the closest comparison to me, and Priest's foreign launch in Russia and Spain mirrored what Legion had. It is looking at 5,000+ tweets from Monday to Thursday, and I just can't forecast a ratio higher than what Resident Evil: Afterlife, which is a sequel and also in 3D, had, so a $6m minimum on Friday seems to be assured.

Giving Thor a 48-49% drop without midnight, similar to what Iron Man achieved. Don't see it reaching Star Trek's 42.8% level.

The WOM for Fast Five should kick in after the natural frontloadedness faded away, and it will reflect on this weekend's hold, especially with not much new competition nor event like losing IMAX screens. It is also one of the few films in the top 10 to not get a boost from Mother's Day. X-Men Origins: Wolverine improved from 69% drop on the sophomore weekend to 44.3% on its third, and there is no reason why Fast Five could not duplicate similar performance.

2 comments:

  1. Here's an archived copy of your "Early Weekend Forecast" write-up from Google Reader:

    Early Weekend Forecast: around $10m for Bridesmaids, $16-18m for Priest
    from Box Office Follower by Yun Xia
    Bridesmaids:

    Movie OW Gross BOM Poll: OW BOM Poll: SiT
    Wedding Crashers $33.9m 17.2% 23.6%
    Knocked Up $30.7m 21.0% 22.4%
    The 40-Year-Old Virgin $21.4m 16.4% 21.2%
    Forgetting Sarah Marshall $17.7m 26.9% 17.9%
    Get Him to the Greek $17.6m 14.6% 15.6%
    MacGruber $8.5m 13.0% 14.3%
    Bridesmaids ? 11.5% 13.4%

    Bridesmaids is the first Judd Apatow film to have women as the main targeted audience, and because of that, we could expect the raw numbers to be worse in the BOM poll as BOM users are mostly young males. However, it is still a Apatow-produced, R-rated raunchy comedy, with Saturday Night Live connection from Kristen Wiig, so there are overlaps with all of the films listed above, and receiving the worst set of numbers among them is definitely not promising.

    Movie # of Tweets Opening Friday Ratio
    Hot Tub Time Machine 8,122 $4.55m 1,785
    Get Him to the Greek 7,545 $6.3m 1,198
    MacGruber 5,878 $1.6m 3,674

    There is a reason to think Bridesmaids would have a lower ratio due to its appeal to women, but Sex and the City 2 had a ratio of 4,400, so that alone doesn't guarantee a lower ratio, at least a drastically lower one. A 1,000+ ratio remains very plausible, and with the film struggling to reach 4,000 tweets from Monday to Thursday, we are looking at a sub $4m Friday.

    Tracking
    ReelSource - mid-teens
    Major Theater Chain - 11

    Having ReelSource dropping from the $20m+ several weeks ago to mid-teen may not mean much itself, but then MTC came in more than 25% worse and significantly increased the odd of the film not opening to $11m.

    The problem for Bridesmaids is that there appears to be a large disconnect between the audience it tries to appeal to (women) and the demo a R-rated raunchy comedy typically attracts, and instead of getting both, it has generated little interest in either. An opening on par with The Sweetest Thing and The Banger Sisters appears likely. The film does possess one thing in its favor: Reviews, but I'm not sure it will have enough time for the expected great word-of-mouth to help the legs, if the opening is low enough.

    Priest:

    Movie OW Gross BOM Poll: OW BOM Poll: SiT
    Resident Evil: Afterlife $26.7m 30.5% 15.2%
    Underworld: Rise of the Lycans $20.8m 15.1% 12.8%
    Legion $17.5m 11.8% 17.2%
    Daybreakers $15.1m 16.5% 19.2%
    Ultraviolet $9.1m 14.3% 14.1%
    Priest ? 13.3% 14.6%

    The Opening Weekend percentage for Priest is quite solid, especially considering its PG-13 rating. Ultraviolet does represent a caution, but the presence of Milla Jovovich inflated online polls. Legion seems to be the closest comparison, and Priest's numbers are on par with it.

    Movie # of Tweets Opening Friday Ratio
    Legion 3,890 $6.7m 581
    Daybreakers 5,130 $5.9m 869
    Resident Evil: Afterlife 10,195 $10.9m 935

    Priest is also on track to get 4,000 tweets by the end of Thursday, but its ratio will not be close to 1,000. The PG-13 rating tends to help reduce the ratio for horror films, so I expect its ratio to be in the 600 range.

    Tracking
    ReelSource - 20
    Major Theater Chain - 18

    Pretty close between the two, so we could not really deduct much more information from them.

    Friday the 13th should also help Priest's opening day while lowering the internal multiplier. A breakdown of $7m Friday and $17m weekend feels reasonable at this point.

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  2. Thanks Alex! It reappeared again. Look like a temporary database issue.

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