Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Memorial Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 27 - 30): The Hangover Part II, Kung Fu Panda 2, The Tree of Life

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Hangover Part II95.0$26,279 PTA
2. Kung Fu Panda 270.0$17,834 PTA
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides48.0-46.8%
4. Bridesmaids17.0-18.6%
5. Thor9.5-38.5%
6. Fast Five7.0-33.8%
7. Rio3.0-36.0%
8. Priest2.4-49.5%
9. Jumping the Broom2.3-37.9%
10. Something Borrowed2.2-37.4%
-. The Tree of Life0.52$130,000 PTA

The Hangover, IMO, had one of the most impressive box office performances in the last decade. Both of its opening and legs are simply stunning. So naturally the expectations for the sequel are high. For comparisons, Shrek achieved a 6.32 multiplier and then saw Shrek 2 opened to 155% higher; Pirates of the Caribbean: 6.04 multiplier for the first film, 191% improvement in opening for the sequel. Using them as cues, if this had been a traditional weekend with Friday launch, we could have easily been looking at a $110m+ opening.

The R-rating does present some challenge for The Hangover that Shrek or Pirates did not have to worry about, but this is as close to a 4-quadrant film as a R-rated movie could get, and the signs so far are not disappointing: ~75,000 tweets from Monday to Wednesday, 41.7% Opening Weekend interests at Box Office Mojo poll, $125m tracking from Major Theater Chain, and 82% of advance sales at Fandango as of 4pm on Wednesday. Look for Part II to start with a massive $35m on Thursday, but then decline gradually each day over the long weekend, king of similar to what Sex and the City 2 experienced (although unlikely to match its severity), for a $130m total across the first 5 days.

Kung Fu Panda 2, on the other hand, is seeing a mixed picture. On first glance, it should easily improve upon the first film's opening given the good word-of-mouth, 3.58 multiplier despite good competition, and the new 3D format. However, the marketing has been somewhat lazy and is not providing people additional excitement to return except to say "look, we're back!" That has led to weak tracking ($76m from MTC) and advance sales (only 2% as of 4pm on Wednesday), although the general interests appear to be there with ~12,000 tweets in the first three days of the week and 31.8% OW from BOM poll. Balancing them out, we could see a $10m Thursday, then another $70m over the next 4 days as the film will certainly have better internal multiplier than The Hangover Part II, for a 5-day total of $80m.

After Woody Allen's Midnight in Paris set the arthouse on fire last weekend with a $100K per-theater-average in 6 theaters, Terence Malick will attempt to replicate the success with his The Tree of Life, and the bet is the film will perform even better in the PTA department, especially now it won Palme d'Or. The long term prospect is more murky since the reviews indicate, unsurprising given Malick's history, it is not made for the broader audience.

Even if Kung Fu Panda 2 turns out to perform a little worse than expected, we will still have the strongest one-two punch ever for Memorial weekend. In fact, they, along with the strength from holdovers, will likely be enough to make this the biggest Memorial weekend ever, surpassing 2007 when the 3 big three-quals - Pirates 3, Shrek 3, and Spider-Man 3 - carried the top 12 to a combined $246.3m.

No comments:

Post a Comment