Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Early Weekend Forecast: around $10m for Bridesmaids, $16-18m for Priest

Bridesmaids:

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
Wedding Crashers$33.9m17.2%23.6%
Knocked Up$30.7m21.0%22.4%
The 40-Year-Old Virgin$21.4m16.4%21.2%
Forgetting Sarah Marshall$17.7m26.9%17.9%
Get Him to the Greek$17.6m14.6%15.6%
MacGruber$8.5m13.0%14.3%
Bridesmaids?11.5%13.4%

Bridesmaids is the first Judd Apatow film to have women as the main targeted audience, and because of that, we could expect the raw numbers to be worse in the BOM poll as BOM users are mostly young males. However, it is still a Apatow-produced, R-rated raunchy comedy, with Saturday Night Live connection from Kristen Wiig, so there are overlaps with all of the films listed above, and receiving the worst set of numbers among them is definitely not promising.

Movie# of TweetsOpening FridayRatio
Hot Tub Time Machine8,122$4.55m1,785
Get Him to the Greek7,545$6.3m1,198
MacGruber5,878$1.6m3,674

There is a reason to think Bridesmaids would have a lower ratio due to its appeal to women, but Sex and the City 2 had a ratio of 4,400, so that alone doesn't guarantee a lower ratio, at least a drastically lower one. A 1,000+ ratio remains very plausible, and with the film struggling to reach 4,000 tweets from Monday to Thursday, we are looking at a sub $4m Friday.

Tracking
ReelSource - mid-teens
Major Theater Chain - 11

Having ReelSource dropping from the $20m+ several weeks ago to mid-teen may not mean much itself, but then MTC came in more than 25% worse and significantly increased the odd of the film not opening to $11m.

The problem for Bridesmaids is that there appears to be a large disconnect between the audience it tries to appeal to (women) and the demo a R-rated raunchy comedy typically attracts, and instead of getting both, it has generated little interest in either. An opening on par with The Sweetest Thing and The Banger Sisters appears likely. The film does possess one thing in its favor: Reviews, but I'm not sure it will have enough time for the expected great word-of-mouth to help the legs, if the opening is low enough.

Priest:

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
Resident Evil: Afterlife$26.7m30.5%15.2%
Underworld: Rise of the Lycans$20.8m15.1%12.8%
Legion$17.5m11.8%17.2%
Daybreakers$15.1m16.5%19.2%
Ultraviolet$9.1m14.3%14.1%
Priest?13.3%14.6%

The Opening Weekend percentage for Priest is quite solid, especially considering its PG-13 rating. Ultraviolet does represent a caution, but the presence of Milla Jovovich inflated online polls. Legion seems to be the closest comparison, and Priest's numbers are on par with it.

Movie# of TweetsOpening FridayRatio
Legion3,890$6.7m581
Daybreakers5,130$5.9m869
Resident Evil: Afterlife10,195$10.9m935

Priest is also on track to get 4,000 tweets by the end of Thursday, but its ratio will not be close to 1,000. The PG-13 rating tends to help reduce the ratio for horror films, so I expect its ratio to be in the 600 range.

Tracking
ReelSource - 20
Major Theater Chain - 18

Pretty close between the two, so we could not really deduct much more information from them.

Friday the 13th should also help Priest's opening day while lowering the internal multiplier. A breakdown of $7m Friday and $17m weekend feels reasonable at this point.

2 comments:

  1. Great analysis, Xia. I have to admit things aren't looking for Bridesmaids. I was initially hoping for a 15-17m opening with some great legs after that (similar to Sarah Marshall and I Love You, Man) but tracking is going to need to go back to its "way off" habits from earlier this year to get it over 10-12m right now.

    JTB and SB definitely stole some of its thunder I think, but you make a great point in that the marketing hasn't attracted either of the two demos its aiming for. Maybe word of mouth can save it, guess we'll see. Hangover 2 won't help those chances.

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  2. What's interesting is that Bridesmaids' R-rating (and if it gets some male interests) could really help Priest.

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