Friday, April 15, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 15 - 17): Scream 4, Rio

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Scream 443.0$13,011 PTA
2. Rio42.0$10,978 PTA
3. Hop10.0-53.0%
4. Hanna7.3-41.0%
5. Arthur6.1-50.1%
6. Soul Surfer5.8-45.3%
7. Source Code5.3-38.7%
8. Insidious5.0-46.6%
9. Your Highness3.7-60.5%
10. Limitless3.2-41.4%

Not much has changed since I wrote my early thoughts on the openers, except that the signs for Scream 4 has strengthened even more. The Opening Weekend interest at BOM poll trended up to 41.4%, impressive considering one would expect the percentage to level off a bit after the more enthusiastic fans had voted. The number at Twitter continued to explode. Look for a $20m Friday, including midnight, and a ~2.15 internal multiplier for an opening frame of $43m.

Rio will not come close to Scream 4 on Friday, but a much more robust IM will make the weekend a race nonetheless. A $12m start and 50% jump on Saturday will put it at around $42m.

For holdovers, family films are most prone to direct competition since the parents will follow their kids to the latest attraction, so expect Hop to suffer a significant drop. Soul Surfer could be partially affected as well, not to mention there is another movie entering the market, Atlas Shrugged, that may have some overlap for the conservative crowd. On the other hand, the R-rating of Scream 4 means good thing for a number of PG-13 films, while Your Highness, with its rating and genre, will see the steepest decline among the top 10 films.


  1. Atlas Shrugged a Christian themed movie?

    The author was an ardent atheist and Atlas Shrugged tears apart God and Christianity (although that part has been left out of the movie).

  2. Anti-Chrisitan is still Christian-themed. It's the type of films that attract people who are ardent about religion, which means there will be some overlap against Soul Surfer's demo.

  3. Good save ("Anti-Christian is still Christian themed..."), sounds almost as if you'd given the film a lot of thought, and were familiar with the book. But's always best to admit when one is wrong. It builds character. :) And makes you look good when someone points out the error of your statement. While Rand wasn't a Christian, she didn't set about denouncing Christianity in ATLAS SHRUGGED. In fact, the book is much more concerned with big government, free will and ojectivism.

  4. Atlas Shrugged has almost no religious elements to it at all. To say it is Anti-Christian would be equivalent to saying the vast majority of Hollywood movies are Anti-Christian because they as with them it just doesn't come up one way or another.

  5. I modified to say "conservative". Thanks for correcting the error, although I'll still maintain there is some overlap between the two films.