Monday, April 25, 2011

Early Week Thought: Fast Five is poised for an $80m+ opening

The signs are collaborating with each other quite well for a breakout performance, and they are not just constrained to one area (Internet, tracking, etc.).

1. Fast Five launched in 4 good-sized international markets last weekend (United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea), and it beat Fast and Furious' opening in all of them.  There is no obvious reason why the numbers would be inflated specifically for those territories due to cast or location say for the example of The King's Speech, and they are not some super-growing territories since 2009 like China and Russia, so we should expect the scenario to translate reasonably close to the U.S.  If we look at the actual increase in percentage, Fast Five did 43% better in Australia than its predecessor while competing and winning over Thor in the process, 22% in U.K., and nearly tripled in South Korea.  A 20% improvement domestically would put it at $85m for the weekend.

2. The BOM poll breakdown of 34.8% Opening Weekend and 16.6% Sometime in Theaters is better than Fast and Furious' 28.9% + 17.6%.

3. Two tracking firms released their figures, and Major Theater Chain being significantly higher than what ReelSource has ($78m vs. $60m) normally means the film will open even stronger than MTC's number.

4. 245 IMAX theaters, something Fast and Furious didn't have.

5. The number of tweets from last week was very solid.  I know people have given Alex hard time for missing Scream 4 by a large margin, but that film had inflated signs everywhere online.  I still believe Twitter analysis is a tremendously useful tool that should be incorporated in any predictive modeling.

5 comments:

  1. Great analysis, Xia. I'm still a bit apprehensive to expect a huge breakout here, but the signs are impossible to ignore at this point and I'm feeling an opening in the $77-85 million range at the moment.

    The only factor I can't completely shake is the fact that overseas markets have still been doing relatively well during this domestic slump, so I'm trying to not factor in those huge jumps quite as much. But between tracking (a bit shakier this year, though it called Scream 4's disappointment very well), the BOM polls, the positive word of mouth from the last film, and probably the best marketing campaign of 2011 -- yea, I have a hard time seeing this not kick off the summer in a great way.

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  2. I'm willing to say 100 mil is possible this weekend, if only because no one knows what the market is capable of right now. The 'young' audience may just be sitting out movies for the time being (they haven't fueled any recent success), or they could be waiting for this movie.

    I think Fast & Furious's April record is in the bag.

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  3. Nice summary Xia, all very good points.

    I definitely see Fast & Furious numbers happening, 76M.

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  4. Fantastic as usual. Can you tell me what is the upper limit on its OW potential. Do you believe there is a chance for 100M OW. I have never known a 100M opener to track this low(even with MTC at 78M).

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  5. I'm not willing to go $100m yet. That would in Iron Man territory for a non-3D film. I'm at $85m for the moment and could potentially see $90m.

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