Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Early Look at This Weekend's Openers: Rio and Scream 4

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
Monsters vs. Aliens$59.3m27.7%26.0%
Tangled$48.8m23.2%20.0%
Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who$45.0m22.3%19.4%
How to Train Your Dragon$43.7m22.5%24.0%
Happy Feet$41.5m21.3%23.1%
Chicken Little$40.0m18.9%24.8%
Bee Movie$38.0m18.2%22.0%
Robots$36.0m21.8%32.8%
Rio?20.9%19.3%

The Box Office Mojo poll could be a quite useful tool for comparing films of the same genre, especially when we apply to animated features.  As the chart demonstrated, there is solid positive correlation between the percentage of voters who are interested in seeing an animated film on the opening weekend and the opening it ended up having.  Rio's figure so far falls right in the middle of this pack and suggests a start in the range of $40-45m, nothing less but not likely to be much more either.  The 3D and ticket inflation could be offset by the relatively low percentage of Sometime in Theaters votes. On the Twitter front, it is looking at 3,000 or more tweets from Monday to Thursday.  With a probable ratio of lower than 300, A $12m Friday appears solid, and that will put its opening at a similar range as well.

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
Paranormal Activity 2$40.7m20.3%13.8%
Friday the 13th$40.6m30.5%12.0%
The Grudge$39.1m31.2%22.1%
The Ring Two$35.1m31.7%24.0%
A Nightmare on Elm Street$32.9m27.0%15.6%
Halloween$26.3m26.1%12.1%
Scream 4?38.7%15.4%

Scream 4's Opening Weekend interest from BOM poll towers over all other comparable films, and even when we add it with the Sometime in Theaters percentage, it only trails The Ring Two.  The correlation between the poll and opening weekend is less strong for horror films, as Paranormal Activity 2 illustrated by grossing $40.7m with "only" 20.3% OW votes at BOM, but it is very difficult to see Scream 4 missing $35m with such strength, and there is no evidence to suggest the poll is inflated just for the film itself.  Then there is Twitter, where it is also accumulating tweets at a monstrous pace.  I do believe it will have a bigger ratio than Saw 3D's 2,145, but not that much bigger.  The internal multiplier will be atrocious - PA2 had 2.02, Friday the 13th 2.10, A Nightmare on Elm Street 2.09, but the opening Friday should be strong enough for it to earn around $40m over the weekend.

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