Friday, April 29, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 29 - May 1): Fast Five, Hoodwinked Too, Prom, Dylan Dog

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Fast Five82.0$22,509 PTA
2. Rio16.0-39.2%
3. Water for Elephants10.8-35.9%
4. Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil9.1$3,633 PTA
5. Madea's Big Happy Family9.0-64.1%
6. Prom6.9$2,527 PTA
7. Hop5.0-59.0%
8. Soul Surfer3.6-33.8%
9. Source Code3.1-39.1%
10. Hanna3.0-43.4%
11. Insidious2.9-44.3%
12. Scream 42.8-60.2%
-. Dylan Dog: Dead of Night1.3$1,508 PTA

Monday, April 25, 2011

Early Week Thought: Fast Five is poised for an $80m+ opening

The signs are collaborating with each other quite well for a breakout performance, and they are not just constrained to one area (Internet, tracking, etc.).

1. Fast Five launched in 4 good-sized international markets last weekend (United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea), and it beat Fast and Furious' opening in all of them.  There is no obvious reason why the numbers would be inflated specifically for those territories due to cast or location say for the example of The King's Speech, and they are not some super-growing territories since 2009 like China and Russia, so we should expect the scenario to translate reasonably close to the U.S.  If we look at the actual increase in percentage, Fast Five did 43% better in Australia than its predecessor while competing and winning over Thor in the process, 22% in U.K., and nearly tripled in South Korea.  A 20% improvement domestically would put it at $85m for the weekend.

2. The BOM poll breakdown of 34.8% Opening Weekend and 16.6% Sometime in Theaters is better than Fast and Furious' 28.9% + 17.6%.

3. Two tracking firms released their figures, and Major Theater Chain being significantly higher than what ReelSource has ($78m vs. $60m) normally means the film will open even stronger than MTC's number.

4. 245 IMAX theaters, something Fast and Furious didn't have.

5. The number of tweets from last week was very solid.  I know people have given Alex hard time for missing Scream 4 by a large margin, but that film had inflated signs everywhere online.  I still believe Twitter analysis is a tremendously useful tool that should be incorporated in any predictive modeling.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (4/4 - 4/10): Qingming Festival; Rio opened better than How to Train Your Dragon

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Don’t Go Breaking My Heart(单身男女)45m ($6.89m)+36.4%48,8211,351,35178.3m ($11.97m)
2. Battle: Los Angeles(洛杉矶之战)27m ($4.13m)-30.8%27,765829,748231m ($35.23m)
3. Rio(里约大冒险)22.6m ($3.46m)New16,987576,97222.6m ($3.46m)
4. Red(赤焰战场)19m ($2.91m)+81.0%24,558591,16329.5m ($4.51m)
5. He-Man 2(硬汉2)13m ($1.99m)+58.5%24,527401,73021.2m ($3.24m)
6. Mr. & Mrs. Single(隐婚男女)7.8m ($1.19m)New12,930245,4377.8m ($1.19m)
7. The Frightening Night(夜惊魂)4.4m ($0.67m)+131.6%9,694151,1506.3m ($0.96m)
8. Fen Dou(奋斗)3.4m ($0.52m)+126.7%8,944111,1834.9m ($0.75m)
9. Mr. Zhai(宅男总动员)2.6m ($0.40m)+85.7%7,37588,1654m ($0.61m)
10. The Law Of Attraction(万有引力)2.3m ($0.35m)New6,13174,8692.3m ($0.35m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1530)

China Weekly Box Office (3/28 - 4/3): Battle LA three-peat and crossed 200m yuan; Red opened

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Battle: Los Angeles(洛杉矶之战)39m ($5.96m)-54.1%51,5151,234,177204m ($31.10m)
2. Don’t Go Breaking My Heart(单身男女)33m ($5.04m)New32,729983,60633m ($5.04m)
3. Red(赤焰战场)10.5m ($1.60m)New12,762317,79610.5m ($1.60m)
4. He-Man 2(硬汉2)8.2m ($1.25m)New13,835244,9228.2m ($1.25m)
5. Killers(整编特工)7.5m ($1.15m)-50.0%17,952263,34222.5m ($3.44m)
6. The Man Behind the Countryard House(守望者)7m ($1.07m)-36.4%19,871225,00818m ($2.75m)
7. The Butcher, the Chef, and the Swordsman(刀见笑)2m ($0.31m)-75.6%7,80068,30623.2m ($3.54m)
8. The Frightening Night(夜惊魂)1.9m ($0.29m)New3,40463,0181.9m ($0.29m)
9. Fen Dou(奋斗)1.5m ($0.23m)New3,59147,6941.5m ($0.23m)
10. Mr. Zhai(宅男总动员)1.4m ($0.21m)New4,61547,6351.4m ($0.21m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1527)

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 22 - 24): Madea's Big Happy Family, Water for Elephants, African Cats

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Madea's Big Happy Family31.0$13,549 PTA
2. Rio25.0-36.3%
3. Water for Elephants17.0$6,035 PTA
4. Hop9.0-16.0%
5. Scream 47.0-62.6%
6. African Cats6.0$4,918 PTA
7. Soul Surfer5.3-27.1%
8. Hanna4.7-35.5%
9. Insidious4.4-34.8%
10. Source Code4.3-30.7%

Saturday, April 16, 2011

China Box Office (3/14 - 3/27): Battle: L.A. dominated the rest of March

03/14 - 03/20

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Battle: Los Angeles(洛杉矶之战)80m ($12.18m)New39,9672,482,92980m ($12.18m)
2. The Butcher, the Chef, and the Swordsman(刀见笑)13m ($1.98m)New25,009405,86913m ($1.98m)
3. The Dragon Pearl(寻龙夺宝)13m ($1.98m)-19.8%30,448432,18029.2m ($4.45m)
4. I Am Number Four(关键第四号)13m ($1.98m)-60.6%24,174395,497110m ($16.75m)
5. Buddha Mountain(观音山)10.7m ($1.63m)-64.9%24,174326,91767.2m ($10.23m)
6. Big Big Man(大人物)4m ($0.61m)-24.5%14,137141,4429.3m ($1.42m)
7. Beneath Hill 60(奇袭60阵地)1.7m ($0.26m)-48.5%7,38857,0855m ($0.76m)
8. Eternal Moment(将爱情进行到底)1.2m ($0.18m)-86.7%3,35936,385198m ($30.11m)
9. Fatal Invitation(致命请柬)1m ($0.15m)-77.3%3,65535,28910.1m ($1.54m)
10. The Tourist(致命伴旅)0.88m ($0.13m)-91.2%1,77625,440136.08m ($20.68m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1522)

03/21 - 03/27

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Battle: Los Angeles(洛杉矶之战)85m ($12.96m)+6.3%82,1682,683,080165m ($25.14m)
2. Killers(整编特工)15m ($2.29m)New26,116509,85715m ($2.29m)
3. The Man Behind the Countryard House(守望者)11m ($1.68m)New17,504336,49411m ($1.68m)
4. The Butcher, the Chef, and the Swordsman(刀见笑)8.2m ($1.25m)-36.9%22,612258,75621.2m ($3.23m)
5. I Am Number Four(关键第四号)3.5m ($0.53m)-73.1%6,87894,238113.5m ($17.28m)
6. The Dragon Pearl(寻龙夺宝)2.7m ($0.41m)-79.2%9,33691,52531.9m ($4.86m)
7. Buddha Mountain(观音山)2.6m ($0.40m)-75.7%8,35280,00069.8m ($10.63m)
8. House Mania(房不剩防)2.6m ($0.40m)New10,05494,0662.6m ($0.40m)
9. Big Big Man(大人物)1m ($0.15m)-75%3,65535,28910.3m ($1.57m)
10. Don’t Go Breaking My Heart(单身男女)0.3m ($0.046m)New729,2730.3m ($0.046m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1525)

China Box Office (2/28 - 3/13): a quiet couple of weeks in early March

02/28 - 03/06

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. I Am Number Four(关键第四号)42m ($6.40m)+90.9%51,3191,297,09664m ($9.75m)
2. Buddha Mountain(观音山)26m ($3.96m)New30,353751,01026m ($3.96m)
3. Eternal Moment(将爱情进行到底)17.5m ($2.67m)-57.3%33,086525,683187.8m ($28.56m)
4. The Tourist(致命伴旅)15m ($2.28m)-54.5%23,204459,840125.2m ($19.03m)
5. Fatal Invitation(致命请柬)4.7m ($0.72m)New9,306156,3534.7m ($0.72m)
6. Alpha and Omega(丛林有情狼)4.6m ($0.70m)-34.3%10,469126,06111.6m ($1.76m)
7. The Green Hornet(青蜂侠)3.9m ($0.59m)-72.1%6,55796,630129.9m ($19.73m)
8. All's Well, Ends Well 2011(最强囍事)1.6m ($0.24m)-81.8%4,72852,857170.4m ($25.93m)
9. What Women Want(我知女人心)1.48m ($0.23m)-67.1%4,92346,43867.48m ($10.27m)
10. Baciami ancora(再吻我一次)1.37m ($0.21m)New4,47942,7541.37m ($0.21m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1523)

03/07 - 03/13

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. I Am Number Four(关键第四号)33m ($5.02m)-21.4%38,5201,031,57297m ($14.77m)
2. Buddha Mountain(观音山)30.5m ($4.64m)+17.3%42,471913,44756.5m ($8.60m)
3. The Dragon Pearl(寻龙夺宝)16.2m ($2.47m)New18,095521,73916.2m ($2.47m)
4. The Tourist(致命伴旅)10m ($1.52m)-33.3%14,201312,891135.2m ($20.55m)
5. Eternal Moment(将爱情进行到底)9m ($1.37m)-48.6%17,588280,461196.8m ($29.93m)
6. Big Big Man(大人物)5.3m ($0.81m)New10,853183,3275.3m ($0.81m)
7. Fatal Invitation(致命请柬)4.4m ($0.67m)-6.4%12,064155,6429.1m ($1.39m)
8. Beneath Hill 60(奇袭60阵地)3.3m ($0.50m)New6,553100,3343.3m ($0.50m)
9. Sky Fighters(歼十出击)1.8m ($0.27m)New6,99565,0991.8m ($0.27m)
10. Baciami ancora(再吻我一次)1.5m ($0.23m)+9.5%4,95150,9682.87m ($0.44m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1522)

China Weekly Box Office (2/21 - 2/27): Eternal Moment reigned again

Apologize that I haven't been keeping up the pace in updating China's box office. Catching up now.

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Eternal Moment(将爱情进行到底)41m ($6.23m)-59.5%51,6331,229,016170.3m ($25.89m)
2. The Tourist(致命伴旅)33m ($5.02m)-51.9%39,7101,025,481110.2m ($16.75m)
3. I Am Number Four(关键第四号)22m ($3.35m)New17,331689,65522m ($3.35m)
4. The Green Hornet(青蜂侠)14m ($2.13m)-64.1%18,852360,731126m ($19.14m)
5. All's Well, Ends Well 2011(最强囍事)8.8m ($1.34m)-66.2%17,306275,775168.8m ($25.69m)
6. Alpha and Omega(丛林有情狼)7.0m ($1.06m)New9,556183,3907.0m ($1.06m)
7. What Women Want(我知女人心)4.5m ($0.68m)-57.5%9,978140,09966m ($10.04m)
8. My Own Swordsman(武林外传)3.6m ($0.55m)-68.7%9,644105,945197.1m ($29.98m)
9. Mr. and Mrs. Incredible(神奇侠侣)2.6m ($0.40m)-60.0%6,98386,92750.1m ($7.63m)
10. I Love HongKong(开心万岁)1.3m ($0.20m)-76.8%2,34586,92727.5m ($4.19m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1521)

Friday, April 15, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 15 - 17): Scream 4, Rio

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Scream 443.0$13,011 PTA
2. Rio42.0$10,978 PTA
3. Hop10.0-53.0%
4. Hanna7.3-41.0%
5. Arthur6.1-50.1%
6. Soul Surfer5.8-45.3%
7. Source Code5.3-38.7%
8. Insidious5.0-46.6%
9. Your Highness3.7-60.5%
10. Limitless3.2-41.4%

Not much has changed since I wrote my early thoughts on the openers, except that the signs for Scream 4 has strengthened even more. The Opening Weekend interest at BOM poll trended up to 41.4%, impressive considering one would expect the percentage to level off a bit after the more enthusiastic fans had voted. The number at Twitter continued to explode. Look for a $20m Friday, including midnight, and a ~2.15 internal multiplier for an opening frame of $43m.

Rio will not come close to Scream 4 on Friday, but a much more robust IM will make the weekend a race nonetheless. A $12m start and 50% jump on Saturday will put it at around $42m.

For holdovers, family films are most prone to direct competition since the parents will follow their kids to the latest attraction, so expect Hop to suffer a significant drop. Soul Surfer could be partially affected as well, not to mention there is another movie entering the market, Atlas Shrugged, that may have some overlap for the conservative crowd. On the other hand, the R-rating of Scream 4 means good thing for a number of PG-13 films, while Your Highness, with its rating and genre, will see the steepest decline among the top 10 films.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Early Look at This Weekend's Openers: Rio and Scream 4

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
Monsters vs. Aliens$59.3m27.7%26.0%
Tangled$48.8m23.2%20.0%
Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who$45.0m22.3%19.4%
How to Train Your Dragon$43.7m22.5%24.0%
Happy Feet$41.5m21.3%23.1%
Chicken Little$40.0m18.9%24.8%
Bee Movie$38.0m18.2%22.0%
Robots$36.0m21.8%32.8%
Rio?20.9%19.3%

The Box Office Mojo poll could be a quite useful tool for comparing films of the same genre, especially when we apply to animated features.  As the chart demonstrated, there is solid positive correlation between the percentage of voters who are interested in seeing an animated film on the opening weekend and the opening it ended up having.  Rio's figure so far falls right in the middle of this pack and suggests a start in the range of $40-45m, nothing less but not likely to be much more either.  The 3D and ticket inflation could be offset by the relatively low percentage of Sometime in Theaters votes. On the Twitter front, it is looking at 3,000 or more tweets from Monday to Thursday.  With a probable ratio of lower than 300, A $12m Friday appears solid, and that will put its opening at a similar range as well.

MovieOW GrossBOM Poll: OWBOM Poll: SiT
Paranormal Activity 2$40.7m20.3%13.8%
Friday the 13th$40.6m30.5%12.0%
The Grudge$39.1m31.2%22.1%
The Ring Two$35.1m31.7%24.0%
A Nightmare on Elm Street$32.9m27.0%15.6%
Halloween$26.3m26.1%12.1%
Scream 4?38.7%15.4%

Scream 4's Opening Weekend interest from BOM poll towers over all other comparable films, and even when we add it with the Sometime in Theaters percentage, it only trails The Ring Two.  The correlation between the poll and opening weekend is less strong for horror films, as Paranormal Activity 2 illustrated by grossing $40.7m with "only" 20.3% OW votes at BOM, but it is very difficult to see Scream 4 missing $35m with such strength, and there is no evidence to suggest the poll is inflated just for the film itself.  Then there is Twitter, where it is also accumulating tweets at a monstrous pace.  I do believe it will have a bigger ratio than Saw 3D's 2,145, but not that much bigger.  The internal multiplier will be atrocious - PA2 had 2.02, Friday the 13th 2.10, A Nightmare on Elm Street 2.09, but the opening Friday should be strong enough for it to earn around $40m over the weekend.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Apr 8 - 10): Arthur, Soul Surfer, Your Highness, Hanna

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Hop22.0-41.4%
2. Arthur14.0$4,274 PTA
3. Soul Surfer12.0$5,420 PTA
4. Your Highness11.0$3,973 PTA
5. Source Code10.0-32.5%
6. Insidious7.0-47.3%
7. Hanna7.0$2,761 PTA
8. Limitless6.0-35.5%
9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules5.0-50.2%
10. The Lincoln Lawyer4.3-37.0%