Friday, February 4, 2011

Super Bowl Weekend Box Office Predictions (Feb 4 - 6): The Roommate, Sanctum

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Roommate14.0$5,525 PTA
2. Sanctum10.0$3,586 PTA
3. No Strings Attached8.2-38.9%
4. The King's Speech7.8-29.5%
5. The Green Hornet6.2-44.6%
6. The Rite6.0-59.4%
7. The Mechanic5.1-55.3%
8. True Grit4.7-37.5%
9. Black Swan3.3-35.5%
10. The Dilemma3.2-43.5%

1. There are three prime reasons why we are on track to have the worst February weekend since 2007: another set of uninteresting openers, the worst winter storm in decades that have affected many states, and Super Bowl XLV. For the third time in five weeks, We could be looking at a frame where no film would earn over $15m, and we hadn't witnessed such lousy start to the year since 2000.

2. Screen Gems is no stranger to handling a release on the Super Bowl weekend. However, The Roommate is tracking much closer to The Messengers than Boogeyman or When a Stranger Calls. The Box Office Mojo poll is a hair worse than what The Messengers had, and although the tweets count is solid in raw numbers, the generic title and attraction to younger females could mean a high ratio. In addition, Super Bowl, as big as it already is, has experienced a upswing in rating and is putting more hurt on the box office; several films last year saw 70%+ Sunday decline.

3. There isn't much going for Sanctum other than James Cameron's name as the producer and 3D surcharge. Universal understood the situation and is focusing the campaign on those two positives, but that is unlikely to elevate the return much beyond what films such as The Cave and The Descent grossed in their opening weekend ($6.1m and $8.9m respectively), especially with it also being rated R.

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