Friday, January 7, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 7 - 9): Season of the Witch, Country Strong

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. True Grit17.0-30.4%
2. Little Fockers16.0-37.9%
3. Tron10.5-44.0%
4. Black Swan7.8-12.2%
5. The Fighter7.5-25.0%
6. Yogi Bear7.0-43.5%
7. Season of the Witch7.0$2,486 PTA
8. The King's Speech6.2-20.3%
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader5.0-51.2%
10. Tangled5.0-49.0%
11. Gulliver's Travels5.0-46.2%
12. Country Strong4.0$2,809 PTA

Neither of the two new wide releases is showing much strength. The Box Office Mojo poll for Season of the Witch shows Opening Weekend interest of 9.7% is about 50% stronger than The Warrior's Way's 6.1%, and the number of tweets indicates no more than $3m for Friday since its ratio should be above 1,000. $7m and around $2,500 per-theater-average appear to be where the film will end up this weekend. Country Strong at least showed up in the ticket sales chart by Thursday afternoon, grabbing 7% of Fandango sales, but it has a smaller theater count of 1,424, and most owners only give it one screen. The result from limited release over the last two weeks is not encouraging either. $3K PTA is probably the best it could hope for.

The weakness from openers should help the holdovers, although the history shows family films tend to suffer heavier drops post New Year. The three Oscar contenders - Black Swan, The Fighter, and The King's Speech - have enjoyed excellent dailies and will continue experiencing wonderful legs.

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