Friday, January 28, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jan 28 - 30): The Rite, The Mechanic, The King's Speech

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Rite16.2$5,427 PTA
2. The King's Speech11.5+46.4%
3. No Strings Attached11.3-42.5%
4. The Mechanic10.0$3,700 PTA
5. The Green Hornet9.8-44.6%
6. True Grit7.0-4.5%
7. The Dilemma5.7-37.4%
8. Black Swan4.6-21.6%
9. The Fighter3.7-11.2%
10. Little Fockers2.4-44.4%

The Rite will attempt to duplicate such January success of The Unborn and White Noise by capitalizing on the PG-13 rating and the lack of horror entries in the market. However, the buzz is only reasonable instead of outstanding, the Box Office Mojo poll is a little weaker than what those two films had, and the number of tweets is less than robust, although I do expect a low ratio there due to the presence of Anthony Hopkins and the uniqueness of the title. Look for a middling per-theater-average around $5,500, good enough to win the lackluster frame.

It does not appear The Mechanic will behave much differently from most other action films Jason Statham headlined in. The BOM poll of 10.1% OW and 11.9% SiT is no better than what Crank (12.5% + 10.5%, $4,157 PTA in 2,515 theaters) and WAR (12.8% + 14.0%, $4,312 average in 2,277) received. Its PTA could in fact be close to what Bank Job ended up - $3,702 - as the latter posted a similar 9.7% OW + 14.3% SiT at BOM. Furthermore, the high percentage of Never paints a gloomy picture for the film's legs.

Among all the Oscar nominated films, the most exciting one to watch at the box office is no doubt The King's Speech, which surged 66% on Tuesday after leading the pack with 12 nominations and then followed with a minuscule drop of 3% on the traditionally weak Wednesday. The word-of-mouth, especially among older demographics, is as good as any we have seen in some time and propelling the film toward a total no one could have imagined just a month ago. It is already seeing a Wed-to-Wed increase and will add another 52%, or 873, in theaters. The Friday jump should fall between what it experienced two weeks ago when more than doubling its location (+225%) and what it had last week when it added less than 10% (150%). Put down 190% and it could gross over $11m this weekend. $100m total is basically a lock, and with a Best Picture win, we could be looking at $130m+, a.k.a another Slumdog Millionaire.

1 comment:

  1. My predictions were all w/in 10% of yours. :)