Thursday, December 29, 2011

New Year Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 30 - Jan 1): the year looks to end on a positive note after much struggling in December

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol31.5+6.8%
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows23.0+13.5%
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked18.5+47.0%
4. War Horse15.5+106.2%
5. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo15.0+17.6%
6. We Bought a Zoo13.0+38.9%
7. The Adventure of Tintin11.5+18.5%
8. New Year's Eve6.5+96.4%
9. The Darkest Hour4.1+36.7%
10. The Muppets2.9+35.2%

In 2005, every film in the top 18 saw an increase of at least 14.6% this weekend from the Christmas frame. We could expect similar scenario to play out this year, although the degree of increase could be a bit lower for some due to how strong the Christmas Day business was. A few films I would particularly keep my eyes on are Mission: Impossible 4, War Horse, and New Year's Eve. M:I4 has enjoyed outstanding dailies so far, and if it could achieve a 10%+ increase this weekend, it will then have the stamina to make a run at $230m+ total. War Horse, on the other hand, has been relatively frontloaded so far, dropping three days in a row after its strong debut. It reminds me of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, another Christmas Day release for an Oscar contender from a renowned director where the opening day ended up being the best day of its entire run. At least War Horse, in only 2,376 theaters currently, has some room for expansion to lessen the level of frondloadedness. As for New Year's Eve, it will be interesting to see how big a bump it could get on Saturday.

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (12/19 - 12/25): The Flowers of War and Flying Swords of Dragon Gate both surged past 300m yuan

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. The Flowers of War(金陵十三钗)202.5m ($31.93m)+35.0%95,1964,753,521352.5m ($55.48m)
2. Flying Swords of Dragon Gate 3D(龙门飞甲)175m ($27.60m)+22.8%86,3203,810,975317.5m ($49.97m)
3. Dear Enemy(亲密敌人)42m ($6.62m)New26,5521,046,07742m ($6.62m)
4. The Allure of Tears(倾城之泪)24m ($3.78m)New27,625684,93124m ($3.78m)
5. White Vengeance(鸿门宴)1.17m ($0.18m)-92.5%4,63139,433151.07m ($23.53m)
6. Xin Yue Mei Ying(新月魅影)0.96m ($0.15m)New4,32133,9580.96m ($0.15m)
7. Three Idiots(三傻大闹宝莱坞)0.79m ($0.12m)-83.2%1,73323,43512.89m ($2.02m)
8. 1911(辛亥革命)0.42m ($0.066m)-6916,17862.67m ($9.87m)
9. Speed Pioneer(极速先锋)0.30m ($0.047m)New7677,9490.30m ($0.047m)
10. Zhui Ai(追爱)0.25m ($0.039m)-1,6839,8304.68m ($0.74m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1577)

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Updated Predictions for Christmas Week Openers: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, MI4, The Adventures of Tintin, We Bought a Zoo, War Horse, The Darkest Hour

MovieWednesdayThursdayFridaySaturdaySundayMonday3-day OW4-day OW
Mission: Impossible 4$8m$7m (-13%)$10m (+43%)$6m (-40%)$11m (+83%)$16m (+45%)$27m$43m
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo$6.5m$5m (-23%)$6m (+20%)$4m (-33%)$6.5m (+63%)$8.5m (+31%)$16.5m$25m
The Adventures of Tintin$3m$3.3m (+10%)$4.6m (+39%)$2.8m (-39%)$4.2m (+50%)$7m (+67%)$11.6m$18.6m
We Bought a ZooN/AN/A$4m$2m (-50%)$3.5m (+75%)$6m (+71%)$9.5m$15.5m
War HorseN/AN/AN/AN/A$4.5m$5.5m (+22%)$4.5m$10m
The Darkest HourN/AN/AN/AN/A$2m$1.5m (-25%)$2m$3.5m

Note: for Sunday openers, 3-day OW becomes 1-day, and 4-day OW becomes 2-day.

Reasons of some of the changes: I lowered the opening day projection for M:I4 to $8m after realizing I way overestimated the mid-week dailies from IMAX locations (not the film's fault, but my own stupidity). Still believe it will beat the opening Wednesdays of both Little Fockers and Rocky Balboa. For The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, after looking at the dailies of R-rated films from 2005 during this week (e.g. Syriana and Munich), I no longer see the same OD-to-OW multiplier as previously used, especially given the popularity of the novel. The buzz for The Adventures of Tintin and We Bought a Zoo appears to be even lower, so I downgraded them accordingly. One other factor that could affect Christmas Day is the NBA. NBA always has games on Christmas Day, but the major difference this time is due to the lockout, the season opens on the day and will have 5 games instead of 2. This could dampen the box office of male-oriented films a little.

MoviePredicted 3-Day Gross (m)Predicted 4-Day Gross (m)
1. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol27.043.0
2. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows22.035.0
3. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo16.525.0
4. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked15.024.0
5. The Adventures of Tintin11.618.6
6. We Bought a Zoo9.515.5
7. War Horse4.510.0
8. New Year's Eve5.08.0
9. Hugo2.84.5
10. Arthur Christmas2.74.0
-. The Darkest Hour2.03.5
Top 10 Total116.6 (+10.0%)187.6

For people who think my predictions for the openers appear too low, the top 10 will gross $116.6m combined, which would in fact be a 10% increase over last frame. Back in 2005, the last time Christmas Eve fell on a Saturday (the worst day of the week for it to fall on in term of box office), the top 12 dropped 17.8% from the previous weekend and barely crossed $100m combined, so it is not unreasonable at all for this weekend to be depressed again, even with all the openers.

Merry Christmas to all!

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (12/12 - 12/18): Epic battle between The Flowers of War and Flying Swords of Dragon Gate

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. The Flowers of War(金陵十三钗)150m ($23.55m)New54,8043,663,898150m ($23.55m)
2. Flying Swords of Dragon Gate 3D(龙门飞甲)142.5m ($22.37m)New56,0863,269,098142.5m ($22.37m)
3. White Vengeance(鸿门宴)15.7m ($2.46m)-69.8%30,738484,867149.9m ($23.53m)
4. Sector 7(深海之战)5.46m ($0.86m)-65.2%12,117155,33421.16m ($3.33m)
5. Three Idiots(三傻大闹宝莱坞)4.7m ($0.74m)-36.5%9,749146,87412.1m ($1.90m)
6. Priest(驱魔者)4.2m ($0.66m)-67.7%8,461116,05437.8m ($5.94m)
7. The Adventures of Tintin(丁丁历险记)2.75m ($0.43m)-70.7%3,92672,828130.95m ($20.62m)
8. Jump! Ashin(翻滚吧!阿信)2.3m ($0.36m)-32.4%7,66277,2335.7m ($0.90m)
9. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus(魔法奇幻秀)2.08m ($0.33m)-74.0%5,65670,10417.78m ($2.80m)
10. Magic to Win(开心魔法)2.06m ($0.32m)-72.5%5,91669,31319.86m ($3.12m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1570)

Here comes another epic December battle between domestic films. Last year it was between Jiang Wei's Let the Bullets Fly and Feng Xiaogang's If You're the One 2; this time it's Zhang Yimou's adaptation of the famous Chinese writer Geling Yan's popular novel against Hark Tsui's 3D visual feast of his wu-xia world. What makes this encounter even more fascinating is 1) both are expensive by Chinese film-making standard: Flying Sowrds of Dragon Gate cost $35m, while The Flowers of War is the most expensive Chinese film ever made with $100m; 2) Unlike Let the Bullets Fly and If You're the One 2 where they were released a week apart, these two are going head-to-head by releasing on the exact same day. Both are filled with star power as well, with Christian Bale headlining one and Jet Li leading the other.

So the result? Almost a tie for the opening 4 days. Flying Swords has the help of 3D screens, but The Flowers of War is enjoying some of the best word-of-mouth the Chinese audience has ever given to a Zhang Yimou's film. Some are saying he has finally made one as good as those of his 1990s' endeavors such as To Live and Raise the Red Lantern. Long term I expect The Flowers of War to pull away (and will challenge $100m total), but the holding power of 3D could keep the race interesting. The next few weeks should be exciting to follow.

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Some Christmas Musing: How well will all the openers co-exist in the crowded holiday frame?

When looking at the schedule, many would wonder why there are so many new movies crammed into the Christmas week, but in fact, due to the unique nature of the Christmas/New Year holiday, where every day of the two-week period - except for Christmas Eve - is a strong day at the box office, it is not uncommon to see a high number of new releases. Six years ago, the last time Christmas Day fell on a Sunday, we saw 8 new wide releases in total, with 6 openers and 2 others expanded to the status. The table below shows some numbers from that frame.

Movie (Day of the Week It Opened)Opening DayOpening WeekendOD-to-OW MultiplierFri-to-Sat ChangeSun-to-Mon Change
Fun with Dick and Jane (Wed)$3.76m$21.53m5.73-52.5%+9%
Cheaper by the Dozen 2 (Wed)$2.55m$15.34m6.02-49.7%+74.9%
Memoirs of a Geisha (went wide on Friday)$2.65m$10.17m3.84-44.2%+30.3%
The Ringer (Fri)$2.38m$7.70m3.24-72.3%+19.8%
Munich (Fri)$1.37m$6.04m4.41-21.2%+10.8%
Rumor Has It (Sun)$3.47m$7.52m2.17N/A+16.4%
Wolf Creek (Sun)$2.81m$4.91m1.75N/A-25.1%
The Producers (went wide on Sun)$1.62m$3.30m2.04+23.7%+7.8%

Note: For pre-Christmas openers such as Fun with Dick and Jane, the opening weekend refers to Friday-to-Monday, while for Christmas Day openers, the opening weekend refers to Sunday + Monday.

The basic pattern for this week: mid-week will be strong as schools are off for winter break, and holdovers who have been in theaters for at least a week will see good week-to-week increases; Friday will be stronger; Saturday, or Christmas Eve, will be the weakest day by far, as many theaters will be closed for the night altogether, and the overall business will drop around 45% from Friday; Sunday, or Christmas Day, will see a surge to become one of the top 3 strongest box office days of the winter holiday; then finally Monday will see another jump across the board (only a few films will see decline that day) to claim the title of the busiest box office day of the holiday. Family films will experience especially superb increases to the level of 65%+, and a couple may see 100%+ jumps as Wallace & Gromit and Dreamer achieved in 2005.

So let's take a look at this week's slate and see if we could give some projections on where they could land. Three films will go wide on Wednesday: Mission: Impossible 4, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and The Adventures of Tintin. Mission: Impossible 4 is a unique case in that Paramount decided to release its IMAX version earlier to generate good buzz and word-of-mouth, and I would say in that they succeeded tremendously. A 58% Friday-to-Saturday increase without midnight counted is simply terrific. Among all the Wednesday releases on Christmas week, Alvin & Chipmunks 2 grossed the most on opening day with $18.8m, but that was helped by Christmas Eve falling on the next day. Then we have Little Fockers at $7.1m and Rocky Balboa at $6.2m. M:I4 should beat both without problem, especially when it is getting $4m a day from IMAX screens alone. I see at least $10m for its opening day (feel $12m is about right), and a 5+ OD-to-OW multiplier would give it $50m+ for the 4-day weekend, with $60m a good possibility.

For Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, I would use Fincher's last big December effort, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, as a comparison. Benjamin Button grossed $11.9m on its opening day; however, that's Christmas Day. The source material could make Dragon Tattoo more frontloaded, but I don't see it beating the figure on a Wednesday, not when it's rated R while Benjamin Button is PG-13. Another film to compare would be True Grit, also a pre-Christmas Wednesday release from renowned directors. It opened to $5.5m, a number Dragon Tattoo should beat given the expected upfront demand. So a $7-8m start feels reasonable, and that would translate to a 4-day weekend of $35-40m.

The Adventures of Tintin should have the best OD-to-OW multiplier among the Wednesday openers; unfortunately, it is also looking at the lowest opening day of the three. Beating Cheaper by the Dozen 2 should not be an issue, but $5m is as high as I see it getting on the first day.  A 6.0 multiplier puts the Friday-to-Monday gross at $25-30m.

The PG rating means good multiplier for We Bought a Zoo. Cheaper by the Dozen 2, for example, had a 3.93 Friday-to-OW multiplier. $5m opening day seems reasonable for it as well, putting its 4-day weekend in the neighborhood of $20m.

Although Muich opened on Friday while War Horse is opening on Sunday, the former could still be used as a reference for the latter. Munich had a $6,755 PTA in 532 theaters for the Sunday-to-Monday portion. With much more locations, I don't see War Horse matching it, although something as low as what Rumor Has It received ($2,669 PTA in 2,815 theaters) is equally unlikely.  Look for a low $4K PTA and $10m opening for the first two days.

Wolf Creek is definitely closest comparison to The Darkest Hour, as it will be one of the rare movies to drop on Monday. With little marketing push and stronger competition for males elsewhere, I don't see it matching Wolf Creek's opening day. A $3-4m two-day start is most likely.

Saturday, December 17, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (12/05 - 12/11)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. White Vengeance(鸿门宴)52m ($8.17m)-36.6%59,6111,570,048134.2m ($21.07m)
2. Sector 7(深海之战)15.7m ($2.47m)New23,447441,75515.7m ($2.47m)
3. Priest(驱魔者)13m ($2.04m)-36.9%18,895352,78133.6m ($5.28m)
4. The Adventures of Tintin(丁丁历险记)9.4m ($1.48m)-44.0%9,013235,529128.2m ($20.19m)
5. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus(魔法奇幻秀)8m ($1.26m)+3.9%13,972259,65515.7m ($2.47m)
6. Magic to Win(开心魔法)7.5m ($1.18m)-27.2%16,263249,33517.8m ($2.80m)
7. Real Steel(铁甲钢拳)7.4m ($1.16m)-39.8%6,582192,658142.5m ($20.50m)
8. Three Idiots(三傻大闹宝莱坞)7.4m ($1.16m)New10,029234,4747.4m ($1.16m)
9. East Meets West 2011(东成西就2011)5.8m ($0.91m)-72.4%12,613183,71878.5m ($12.34m)
10. Love Is Not Blind(失恋33天)5m ($0.79m)-64.3%7,782143,802349.8m ($52.92m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1572)

Friday, December 16, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 16 - 18): Sherlock Holmes 2, Alvin and the Chipmunks 3, Mission: Impossible 4, Young Adult

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows48.0$12,893 PTA
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked30.0$8,058 PTA
3. Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol12.0$28,235 PTA
4. New Year's Eve8.0-38.6%
5. Arthur Christmas5.2-20.1%
6. The Muppets4.7-32.7%
7. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 14.5-42.5%
8. The Sitter4.5-54.3%
9. Hugo4.0-33.9%
10. Young Adults4.0$4,057 PTA

Brief thoughts after watching Mission: Impoosible 4 at a soldout IMAX auditorium in San Francisco (Metreon): it is the best action movie of the year. Sort of like a hybrid of Bourne and 007 that combined all the good parts, with non-stop but not over-the-top actions and cool gadgets. Good humors from Simon Pegg. It is destined to be the crowd-pleaser of this holiday season, and I see great legs and potential for $200m total. Also Dark Knight Rises prologue in IMAX is a must see; definitely the most anticipated film of 2012 by far.

China Weekly Box Office (11/28 - 12/04)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. White Vengeance(鸿门宴)82m ($12.88m)New66,9092,521,52582m ($12.88m)
2. East Meets West 2011(东成西就2011)21m ($3.30m)-59.4%33,936663,08872.7m ($11.43m)
3. Priest(驱魔者)20.6m ($3.24m)New24,030563,45720.6m ($3.24m)
4. The Adventures of Tintin(丁丁历险记)16.8m ($2.64m)-58.0%15,953435,458118.8m ($18.71m)
5. Love Is Not Blind(失恋33天)14m ($2.20m)-69.4%20,844421,432344.8m ($52.13m)
6. Real Steel(铁甲钢拳)12.3m ($1.93m)-55.8%11,949348,047135.1m ($19.34m)
7. Magic to Win(开心魔法)10.3m ($1.62m)New14,906328,02510.3m ($1.62m)
8. The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus(魔法奇幻秀)7.7m ($1.21m)New8,797247,4297.7m ($1.21m)
9. Cold Steel(遍地狼烟)4.6m ($0.72m)New10,033148,5784.6m ($0.72m)
8. A Big Deal(巨额交易)4.2m ($0.66m)New7,574136,6744.2m ($0.66m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1571)

Friday, December 9, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 9 - 11): New Year's Eve, The Sitter

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. New Year's Eve20.0$5,706 PTA
2. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 19.5-42.5%
3. The Sitter9.0$3,274 PTA
4. Hugo8.0+5.9%
5. The Muppets7.7-30.5%
6. Arthur Christmas6.5-12.2%
7. The Descendants5.0+4.4%
8. Happy Feet Two3.9-34.1%
9. Jack and Jill3.7-30.9%
10. Immortals3.0-32.8%

1. The first sign of concern for New Year's Eve came from Flixster, where its number of user ratings has ascended at a very slow pace and still falls short of 10,000 as of Thursday night. Normally only family films would see a sub-50 ratings-to-opening-weekend ratio, which is what it needs to break $20m for the opening frame. While ReelSource's tracking appeared to bring some good news on Monday with its high-30s number, it actually added to my concern since one had the feeling that the one from Major Theater Chain would be much more reasonable (i.e. lower), and such discrepancy would bring the MTC << RS "rule" into play. It did lead Fandango's ticket sales chart with their latest Thursday afternoon update, but 16% is not really an impressive figure given we are coming out of one of the weakest weekends of the year. Valentine's Day (18% at RT with 3.8 average) showed bad reviews don't necessarily affect the box office for the genre, but having such terrible reviews (5%/3.2 so far) won't bring in additional viewers either. New Year's Eve also does not have the release date gimmick of Valentine's Day; instead, it will rely on the holiday the title is targeting to help its legs.

2. If the trailer for New Year's Eve came across as too eager showing off its impressive cast and not having enough funny bits, then the one for The Sitter would appear as if they are actively trying to be not funny. The reviews, as expected, are terrible as well. More alarmingly, it has gathered around 6,700 user ratings at Flixster so far, abysmal for a genre (R-rated comedy) known for higher ratios. Not making Fandango's top 5 advance sales list is another bad sign. It could have trouble making double-digit this weekend.

3. With weakness from the openers, holdovers will see good-to-excellent holds across the board, especially for two films that continue to expand, Hugo (+768, +41.7%) and The Descendants (+300, +52.3%).

Sunday, December 4, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (11/21 - 11/27)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. East Meets West 2011(东成西就2011)51.7m ($8.13m)New42,2331,639,70851.7m ($8.13m)
2. Love Is Not Blind(失恋33天)45.8m ($7.20m)-52.3%56,7541,424,572330.8m ($52.13m)
3. The Adventures of Tintin(丁丁历险记)40m ($6.29m)-35.5%37,9511,083,717102m ($16.07m)
4. Real Steel(铁甲钢拳)27.8m ($4.37m)-25.9%28,170851,454122.8m ($19.34m)
5. Immortals(惊天战神)15m ($2.36m)-48.3%20,516411,29633.4m ($5.26m)
6. Legendary Amazons(杨门女将)14m ($2.20m)-40.4%31,091455,58037.5m ($5.91m)
7. Tropa de Elite 2(精英部队:大敌当前)9.8m ($1.54m)New13,057324,8259.8m ($1.54m)
8. Nightmare(午夜凶梦)6.1m ($0.96m)New11,051198,3746.1m ($0.96m)
9. Rise of the Planet of the Apes(猩球崛起)4.7m ($0.74m)-56.5%7,712144,748202m ($31.80m)
10. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence(名侦探柯南:沉默的15分钟)0.52m ($0.082m)-69.4%1,69119,38130.32m ($4.77m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1573)

Friday, December 2, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 2 - 4)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 115.0-64.0%
2. The Muppets14.0-52.1%
3. Hugo8.0-29.6%
4. Arthur Christmas6.0-50.3%
5. Jack and Jill5.5-45.0%
6. The Descendants5.0-31.9%
7. Happy Feet Two5.0-62.7%
8. Immortals4.0-54.9%
9. Tower Heist3.5-51.2%
10. Puss in Boots3.0-60.1%
-. Shame0.4$44,444 PTA

Thursday, November 24, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (11/07 - 11/13): the darkhorse Love Is Not Blind surpised all with a monster start to win over Real Steel and Immortals

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Love Is Not Blind(失恋33天)189m ($29.79m)New89,5305,967,792189m ($29.79m)
2. Real Steel(铁甲钢拳)57.5m ($9.06m)New49,9121,711,30957.5m ($9.06m)
3. Immortals(惊天战神)33.4m ($5.26m)New21,706891,85533.4m ($5.26m)
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes(猩球崛起)31m ($4.89m)-65.0%36,578985,378186.5m ($29.36m)
5. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence(名侦探柯南:沉默的15分钟)8.4m ($1.32m)-57.4%16,906291,26228.1m ($4.42m)
6. Starry Starry Night(星空)4.4m ($0.69m)-58.9%9,779134,80315.1m ($2.37m)
7. Kora(转山)1.48m ($0.23m)-40.8%3,92748,8283.98m ($0.63m)
8. Single Terminator(光棍终结者)1.15m ($0.18m)New3,03840,1251.15m ($0.18m)
9. Zuo Li Jun(左利军)1.07m ($0.17m)+118.4%16535,6661.56m ($0.25m)
10. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)0.89m ($0.14m)-88.6%2,57526,30072.19m ($11.34m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1576)

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Thanksgiving Weekend Predictions (11/23 - 27): The Muppets, Arthur Christmas, Hugo

1. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part I - $40m 3-day / $62m 5-day (-71.0%)

Breaking Dawn Part I has followed closely with New Moon in term of daily percentage changes: Sat-to-Sun - -33.9% vs. -34.2%; Sun-to-Mon - -62.7% vs. -62.3%.  New Moon did face less new competition on its Thanksgiving week with Old Dogs and Ninja Assassin grossing $45.4m combined over 5 days, but it had to deal with much stronger holdovers, especially in The Blind Side, so overall expect Breaking Dawn to continue follow a similar trajectory.  In the end, it is likely to not only miss the $300m mark, but also gross less than New Moon's total of $296.6m.

2. The Muppets - $35m 3-day / $50m 5-day ($10,174 PTA)

There are many positives pointing to an excellent start by The Muppets:

a. Over 6,000 tweets on Monday alone and around 17,000 user ratings already at Flixster. For a family film, both are very strong. For example, Happy Feet 2 last week translated 9,300 Flixster ratings on Thursday into a $21.2m weekend.

b. It accounted for 31% of the ticket sales at Fandango on Tuesday.

c. MTC tracking put it at $31.5m while RS gave it high-$20s for the 3-day portion. Although the difference is not large enough to strongly indicate an opening higher than MTC's figure, a number below RS' is also unlikely.

d. The reviews are simply terrific. In fact, as of now, it remains perfectly fresh at RottenTomatoes with 59 reviews, and the average stands at 8.1.

As we could see from the all-time best Thanksgiving opening chart, Disney has a good track record for the frame. I do not expect another Tangled (and certainly not Toy Story 2), but a $35m 3-day and $50m 5-day similar to what Enchanted achieved looks very reasonable.

3. Happy Feet Two - $18.5m 3-day / $25m 5-day (-12.9%)

The original Happy Feet declined only 10.8% on its Thanksgiving weekend.  However, it enjoyed better word-of-mouth as well as faced much weaker competition, with only Deck the Halls targeting its demo, so expect the sequel to drop a little harder.

4. Arthur Christmas - $11m 3-day / $15m 5-day ($3,258 PTA)

Not much to say about the film other than I don't really like the signs for it: MTC tracking came in significantly lower than RS' (10.5 vs. mid-teen), low number of Flixster ratings (around 5,000), and weak advance sales.

-. Hugo - $5m 3-day / $7m 5-day ($3,915 PTA)

Financier Graham King's insistence on releasing Hugo this week may end up ranked as one of the very worst release date decisions of the year, if not many years.  The marketing effort has not been there to support generating the necessary buzz for the well-reviewed but harder-to-sell film from Martin Scorsese.  As a result, Hugo may perish before the excellent reviews could kick in to help its legs.  Paramount did realize the difficult task it is facing and limited the amount of theaters this week to 1,277 to leave space for expansion, but if the initial per-theater-average is mediocre, there might not be an expansion at all.

This will also be a week for the limited releases to shine.  Last week's darling The Descendants will continue to shine, and joining it includes The Artist, A Dangerous Method, and My Week with Marilyn, all fresh at RottenTomatoes.  I am most interested in The Artist's performance since on paper, it is the hardest one to sell being both black-and-white and silent, but it is also the one with the most Oscar buzz, with many predicting a Best Picture nomination coming in February.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Early Weekend Thoughts (Nov 11 - 13): Puss in Boots looks to 3-peat over Immortals, Jack and Jill, and J. Edgar

I will be traveling with family to Hawaii for 10 days starting tomorrow, and online time will be limited, so will post my thoughts on this weekend's top 5 now.

1. Puss in Boots - $30m (-9.2%)

Puss in Boots' leggy run should continue this weekend with the help of Veterans Day on Friday, as family films tend to perform exceptionally well on this holiday. The last time Veterans Day fell on Friday, Chicken Little turned a $2.23m Tuesday into a $31.7m weekend, thanks to a 81.8% Thursday jump and then a 285.4% Friday increase. Puss in Boots' second Tuesday of $2.43m is not only better than Chicken Little's by comparison, it is also better than what it earned a week ago, a very rare occurrence. Another superb hold should occur.

2. Immortals - $20m (New)

The general expectations on Immortals were relatively low given the recent failure of Conan the Barbarian ($10m opening) and The Three Musketeers ($8.7m). However, both tracking firms, Major Theater Chain and ReelSource, came in early this week and put its opening at around mid-$20m, indicating the appeal to 300 crowd could be working. On the other hand, Flixster shows 15,859 user ratings so far, not that strong for a film that is likely to see a user-rating-to-OW ratio of over 1,000. On the Twitter front, it is on track for about 15,000 tweets from Monday to Thursday, good but again not necessarily matching the tracking strength, as its tweets-to-Friday ratio should be close to 2,000, and with the catchy 11/11/11 release date and the inherent frontloading nature of the genre, a $8m Friday may not translate to a $20m weekend.

3. Tower Heist - $17m (-29.2%)

On the equivalent weekend in 2005, many holdovers saw excellent holds due to holiday. With good word-of-mouth and sneak-in business from 2 R-rated openers, look for Tower Heist to have a great sophomore frame.

4. Jack and Jill - $15m (New)

Simply not feeling the latest Adam Sandler release. The ads have not generated much interest, as it is stuck in a place that doesn't attract any particular demographics. It could very well be Sandler's second Little Nicky.

5. J. Edgar - $14m (New)

Outside Gran Torino, Clint Eastwood's recent offerings had experienced pretty similar runs: Hereafter, Invictus, Changeling, and Flags of Our Fathers all opened between $8.6m and $12.1m and finished with $32.7-37.5m total. The interests in J. Edgar appear to be higher due to the presence of Leonardo DiCaprio, but the worse reviews could cut its legs short, so expect a stronger start but weaker overall multiplier.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (10/31 - 11/06): Rise of the Planet of the Apes continued to dominate

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes(猩球崛起)88.5m ($13.93m)+32.1%82,8002,856,681155.5m ($24.47m)
2. Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence(名侦探柯南:沉默的15分钟)19.7m ($3.10m)New19,408661,07319.7m ($3.10m)
3. Starry Starry Night(星空)10.7m ($1.68m)New14,527327,61710.7m ($1.68m)
4. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)7.8m ($1.23m)-68.8%16,234210,07271.3m ($11.20m)
5. Unknown(不明身份)7.6m ($1.20m)New16,160248,6097.6m ($1.20m)
6. Lost In Panic Cruise(密室之不可靠岸)6.3m ($0.99m)-37.2%17,782205,47916.33m ($2.57m)
7. The Warrior's Way(黄沙武士)4m ($0.63m)New9,851125,2744m ($0.63m)
8. Love on Credit(幸福额度)3.75m ($0.59m)-72.2%11,070115,27833.25m ($5.22m)
9. Sleepwalker in 3D(梦游)3.6m ($0.57m)-44.6%9,839107,39810.1m ($1.59m)
10. Interceptor(黑暗终结者)2.9m ($0.46m)New6,53495,8992.9m ($0.46m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1574)

Monday, November 7, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (10/24 - 10/30): Rise of the Planet of the Apes set new fall opening weekend record

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Rise of the Planet of the Apes(猩球崛起)67m ($10.54m)New42,0162,168,28467m ($10.54m)
2. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)25m ($3.93m)-35.1%43,994661,20063.5m ($9.97m)
3. Love on Credit(幸福额度)13.5m ($2.12m)-15.6%30,785418,08629.5m ($4.63m)
4. Lost In Panic Cruise(密室之不可靠岸)10.03m ($1.58m)New20,654324,70010.03m ($1.58m)
5. Limitless (永无止境)7.8m ($1.23m)-58.9%17,175251,53150.3m ($7.90m)
6. Sleepwalker in 3D(梦游)6.5m ($1.02m)New14,548186,9966.5m ($1.02m)
7. Sleepless Fashion(与时尚同居)3.4m ($0.53m)+21.4%12,819115,8036.2m ($0.97m)
8. Its Love(白蛇传说)3.2m ($0.50m)-75.4%7,998118,255206.2m ($32.33m)
9. Fake Identity(双重身份)2.3m ($0.36m)-65.2%7,15672,3048.9m ($1.39m)
10. 1911(辛亥革命)2.2m ($0.35m)-38.9%1,13569,66458.7m ($9.20m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1573)

China Weekly Box Office (10/17 - 10/23): Not very exciting start for Green Lantern

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Green Lantern(绿灯侠)38.5m ($6.04m)New39,614991,75638.5m ($6.04m)
2. Limitless (永无止境)19m ($2.98m)-19.1%33,507610,53942.5m ($6.67m)
3. Love on Credit(幸福额度)16m ($2.51m)New24,627486,32216m ($2.51m)
4. Its Love(白蛇传说)13m ($2.04m)-58.7%24,097443,989203m ($31.83m)
5. Mural(画壁)9.1m ($1.43m)-68.4%20,805285,714180.9m ($26.93m)
6. Who Under The Bed(床下有人)6.6m ($1.03m)-12.0%17,192228,29414.1m ($2.21m)
7. Fake Identity(双重身份)6.6m ($1.03m)New16,092211,8786.6m ($1.03m)
8. Last Night(一夜迷情)4.2m ($0.66m)-20.8%11,949128,5189.5m ($1.49m)
9. 1911(辛亥革命)3.8m ($0.60m)-49.3%2,740122,26556.5m ($8.85m)
10. Sleepless Fashion(与时尚同居)2.8m ($0.44m)New6,41087,8842.8m ($0.44m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1568)

Sunday, November 6, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (10/10 - 10/16): Limitless performed above expectation

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Its Love(白蛇传说)31.5m ($4.95m)-60.6%50,993970,724190m ($29.79m)
2. Mural(画壁)28.8m ($4.52m)-65.3%46,663872,991171.8m ($26.93m)
3. Limitless (永无止境)23.5m ($3.69m)New26,562746,50523.5m ($3.69m)
4. 1911(辛亥革命)7.5m ($1.18m)-21.9%8,980240,73452.7m ($8.25m)
5. Who Under The Bed(床下有人)7.5m ($1.18m)New11,975256,0607.5m ($1.18m)
6. Last Night(一夜迷情)5.3m ($0.83m)New10,658160,5575.3m ($0.83m)
7. Sanctum(夺命深渊)4.6m ($0.72m)-72.9%5,992118,130117.1m ($18.35m)
8. I Phone You(爱封了)2.7m ($0.42m)New8,49581,1542.7m ($0.42m)
9. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)2.7m ($0.42m)-55.7%5,99080,64562.8m ($9.84m)
10. Love Sick(恋爱恐慌症)2.4m ($0.38m)New5,99477,1952.4m ($0.38m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1570)

China Weekly Box Office (10/03 - 10/09): Independence holiday week

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Mural(画壁)83m ($13.01m)+38.3%70,8172,532,021143m ($22.41m)
2. Its Love(白蛇传说)80m ($12.54m)+1.9%78,5032,408,187158.5m ($24.84m)
3. The Dragon Knight(洛克王国!圣龙骑士)18m ($2.82m)+33.3%27,580658,13531.5m ($4.94m)
4. Sanctum(夺命深渊)17m ($2.67m)+8.3%12,963413,725112.5m ($17.63m)
5. 1911(辛亥革命)9.6m ($1.51m)-45.1%14,282285,12045.1m ($7.07m)
6. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)6.1m ($0.96m)-28.2%8,558173,83860.1m ($9.42m)
7. May Day 3DNA(五月天追梦3DNA)5.3m ($0.83m)-31.6%6,667132,96525.05m ($3.92m)
8. Lee's Adventures(李献计历险记)5m ($0.78m)+212.5%11,517152,9986.6m ($1.03m)
9. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)4m ($0.63m)-28.6%4,723104,87695.6m ($14.98m)
10. Love You You (夏日乐悠悠)2.4m ($0.38m)+89.0%6,92573,6643.67m ($0.58m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1568)

China Weekly Box Office (09/26 - 10/02): domestic films dominated; Sanctum ended as the highest September grosser

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Its Love(白蛇传说)78.5m ($12.30m)New53,0862,358,06578.5m ($12.30m)
2. Mural(画壁)60m ($9.40m)New39,9441,816,53060m ($9.40m)
3. 1911(辛亥革命)17.5m ($2.74m)-2.8%30,931537,30435.5m ($5.56m)
4. Sanctum(夺命深渊)15.7m ($2.46m)-28.6%15,900386,89095.5m ($14.96m)
5. The Dragon Knight(洛克王国!圣龙骑士)13.5m ($2.12m)New12,498484,56513.5m ($2.12m)
6. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)8.5m ($1.33m)-59.5%14,600235,65254m ($8.46m)
7. May Day 3DNA(五月天追梦3DNA)7.75m ($1.21m)-35.4%14,956198,76819.75m ($3.09m)
8. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)5.6m ($0.88m)-61.4%9,037154,10091.6m ($14.35m)
9. The Purple House(紫宅)4.2m ($0.66m)-31.1%12,927146,69910.3m ($1.62m)
10. Love in Space(全球热恋)2.3m ($0.36m)-77.7%6,17470,74766.6m ($10.43m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1567)

China Weekly Box Office (09/19 - 09/25): terrible start for 1911

Apologize for not updating numbers from China for a long time. Posting them now.

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Sanctum(夺命深渊)22m ($3.45m)-38.5%24,948535,93279.8m ($12.50m)
2. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)21m ($3.29m)-14.3%33,022557,17645.5m ($7.13m)
3. 1911(辛亥革命)18m ($2.82m)New23,489541,07718m ($2.82m)
4. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)14.5m ($2.27m)-60.3%23,789393,91486m ($13.47m)
5. May Day 3DNA(五月天追梦3DNA)12m ($1.88m)New13,701286,53212m ($1.88m)
6. Love in Space(全球热恋)10.3m ($1.61m)-61.9%21,204311,64964.3m ($10.07m)
7. The Purple House(紫宅)6.1m ($0.96m)New10,716203,7406.1m ($0.96m)
8. My Kingdom(大武生)6.1m ($0.96m)-71.0%16,958192,42948.1m ($7.54m)
9. Arthur et la guerre des deux mondes(亚瑟3)5.25m ($0.82m)New10,497188,2395.25m ($0.82m)
10. The Man from Nowhere(孤胆特工)5.1m ($0.80m)+2.0%15,218174,00210.1m ($1.58m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1566)

Thursday, November 3, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 4 - 6): Tower Heist, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Puss in Boots27.0-20.8%
2. Tower Heist25.5$7,574 PTA
3. A Very Harold and Kumar 3D Christmas16.0$5,565 PTA
4. Paranormal Activity 38.1-55.1%
5. In Time6.0-50.2%
6. Footloose3.8-30.9%
7. Real Steel3.2-33.1%
8. The Rum Diary3.1-39.6%
9. The Three Mustketeers2.2-37.3%
10. The Ides of March2.0-28.7%

Friday, October 28, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 28 - 30): Puss in Boots, In Time, The Rum Diary

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Puss in Boots50.0$12,652 PTA
2. Paranormal Activity 321.0-60.1%
3. In Time10.0$3,203 PTA
4. The Rum Diary7.5$3,301 PTA
5. Footloose6.3-39.1%
6. Real Steel6.0-44.6%
7. The Three Mustketeers4.7-45.8%
8. The Ides of March2.8-42.3%
9. Moneyball2.3-42.2%
10. Dolphin Tale2.0-52.6%

After one of THE most memorable World Series games I have ever seen and then a midnight movie (a pretty terrible one), it's 2:30am, and I will have to give a short version of my predictions again. Just want to emphasize a few things:

1. Having a Game 7 is bad news for Friday box office. The World Series may have seen rating declines in recent years, but this is still Game 7, the first one since 2002. Also from what we saw on Tuesday, where no baseball game contributed to better-than-normal increases across the board, even a 10-15% rating translates to a good chunk of the audience. Male-oriented films will see the most noticeable effect, with Moneyball being the leading candidate to get hit the hardest, but even Puss in Boots will get impacted some as families could easily decide to push it to Saturday.

2. The signs for Puss in Boots are very strong, from tracking (MTC coming in way higher than RS, $48m vs. $38m), Box Office Mojo poll (~26% Opening Weekend interest), and tweets (~7,400 from Monday to Thursday, when the ratio for a non-Pixar animated film normally hovers in the 500-600 range). Below is a table showing the BOM polls of other similar films:

MovieBOM Opening Weekend %Sometime in Theaters %Opening Weekend Gross
Shrek Forever After23.7%23.6%$70.8m
How to Train Your Dragon22.5%24.0%$43.7m
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa21.5%17.7%$63.1m
Monsters Vs. Aliens27.7%26.0%$59.3m
Ice Age: The Meltdown29.2%24.8%$68.0m
Shark Tale26.5%28.0%$47.6m
Bee Movie18.2%22.0%$38.0m

3. In Time, on the other hand, is showing quite a bit of weakness when we consider its sci-fi genre. Its BOM poll is weaker than what Source Code received, and around 7,500 tweets Mon-to-Thurs for the genre tends to mean a sub-$5m Friday.

4. Last weekend, many holdovers, in various degrees, were benefited from Paranormal Activities 3's popularity and the sneak-in business it generated.  They won't receive such boost this frame, so expect some heavier drops.

Friday, October 21, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 21 - 23): Paranormal Activity 3, The Three Mustketeers, Johnny English Reborn, The Mighty Macs

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Paranormal Activity 348.5$14,604 PTA
2. The Three Mustketeers12.0$3,977 PTA
3. Real Steel10.3-36.8%
4. Footloose8.5-45.4%
5. Johnny English Reborn7.7$4,965 PTA
6. The Ides of March5.0-29.7%
7. Dolphin Tale4.4-29.4%
8. Moneyball3.7-32.2%
9. The Thing3.0-64.7%
10. 50/502.9-31.9%
-. The Mighty Macs1.1$1,128 PTA

The signs could hardly look any better for Paranormal Activity 3. Its Box Office Mojo poll shows 23.6% Opening Weekend votes, higher than what either Paranormal Activity 2 (20.3% OW) or Jackass 3D (18.8%) received. The number of tweets it generated this week is even more impressive, averaging over 40,000 a day and simply one of the best performers we have ever seen. Its advance sales also accounted for a higher percentage of the total sales than what those two films had on their respective pre-release Wednesdays. Then the fact that Major Theater Chain tracking came in significantly higher than ReelSource's, $38m vs. $30m, echoed a potential breakout start of $45m+. Each of the last three years, we saw the top 12 films on this equivalent frame to gross at least $105m combined; with the current weakness in the market and other new wide releases not expecting to perform well, the condition is ripe for Paranormal Activity 3 to make a run at $50m this weekend.

Ever since the first trailer, which feels to be a long time ago, The Three Musketeers has taunted the fact it is shot in 3D instead of being post-converted. However, the climate for 3D films has cooled down significantly, and period action is not a genre people associate with 3D, so having it could turn off even more viewers. Look for a low-teen opening at best.

Johnny English Reborn is sort of the wild card of the weekend. The buzz appears minimal, but its BOM poll is actually a little better than what Mr. Bean's Holiday had: 11.2% OW vs. 9.6%. Reborn's international gross has been on par with Mr. Bean's Holiday as well, and the latter opened to $9.6m in 1,714 theaters domestically. The market also hasn't seen a PG-rated film since Dolphin Tale a month ago, so a small overperformance could be in store.

The Mighty Macs reminds me of The Final Season and Gracie, and a figure in between feels reasonable.

Friday, October 14, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 14 - 16): Footloose, The Thing, The Big Year

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Real Steel17.5-35.9%
2. Footloose17.0$4,790 PTA
3. The Thing11.5$3,837 PTA
4. The Ides of March6.5-37.9%
5. Dolphin Tale6.3-31.0%
6. Moneyball4.9-34.3%
7. The Big Year4.5$2,093 PTA
8. 50/503.8-32.8%
9. Courageous3.1-36.3%
10. Dream House2.5-44.1%

Friday, October 7, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 7 - 9): Real Steel, The Ides of March

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Real Steel24.5$7,122 PTA
2. The Ides of March11.5$5,230 PTA
3. Dolphin Tale10.5-24.5%
4. Moneyball7.5-37.7%
5. 50/505.5-36.4%
6. Courageous5.3-41.5%
7. Dream House4.3-47.1%
8. The Lion King 3D3.5-67.0%
9. Abduction3.1-44.7%
10. What's Your Number3.0-44.7%
11. Contagion2.8-42.9%
12. Killer Elite2.6-47.1%

(Sorry that I didn't really have any time to write tonight; just did some quick calculations from my charts.)

Friday, September 30, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 30 - Oct 2): What's Your Number, 50/50, Courageous, Dream House

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Dolphin Tale15.5-19.1%
2. Moneyball13.2-32.3%
3. The Lion King 3D11.1-49.4%
4. What's Your Number10.5$3,500 PTA
5. 50/509.1$3,700 PTA
6. Courageous8.1$7,000 PTA
7. Dream House7.0$2,630 PTA
8. Abduction5.5-49.7%
9. Contagion5.3-37.3%
10. Killer Elite4.3-54.0%

For the fourth straight weekend, we will have four new wide releases joining the fray. September is one of the weakest months for box office, so having 19 good-scale openers all crammed into it is quite absurd. Last weekend turned out to be a pleasant surprise on the strength of 4 main openers combining for $58.9m and The Lion King's impressive hold, as the overall market set a new September record ($105.9m total for the top 12 films). This frame is unlikely to sustain such performance, and with Dolphin Tale and Moneyball receiving great word-of-mouth, the holdovers in the top 12 look to grab around $65m, not leaving much room for the new releases. I will be surprised if even two of them break double-digit.

To me, the new film best suited to break double-digit is actually What's Your Number. It fills a market void and will enjoy the most number of theaters among the openers (3,002). The trailer had been well received by the audience each time I saw it, especially the end. The R-rating is a concern, and there are signs of weakness such as weak tracking ($6-7m), small number of tweets (around 400 from Monday to Thursday), and little advance sale; however, its 8.4% Opening Weekend figure at Box Office Mojo poll is stronger than some past R-rated romantic comedies such as Going the Distance (5.8%, $6.9m start) and My Best Friend's Girl (4.4%, $8.3m), even though the number could not quite match Good Luck Chuck's 11.2% ($13.7m). Balancing all the factors, I put its per-theater-average at around $3,500 for a $10-11m weekend.

In addition to good BOM poll (18.4% OW, way better than the most recent R-rated comedy Our Idiot Brother), 50/50 also has excellent reviews in its favor. On the other hand, the cancer topic is a hard sell, and people don't really want to relate that to comedy. As Drive just showed, doing well on those fronts (24.0% OW, 93% at RottenTomatoes) does not necessarily translate to good box office. Not appearing on Fandango's top 5 ticket sales list is a bigger concern for it than for What's Your Number. It could break double-digit, but I feel it will fall short.  

Courageous has led Fandango's tickets list since Wednesday, as churches tend to do group buying in advance for religious films. Fireproof, director Alex Kendrick's previous endeavor, took advantage of the same late September weekend to open with a very healthy $8,148 PTA in 838 locations, and look for Courageous to achieve something similar, although higher screen count of 1,161 could mean a slightly smaller PTA.  

Dream House is one film I feel least confident about. The online signs (number of tweets, BOM poll) are decent, but the delay, very low-key marketing, and the lack of advance sales are all causes for concerns. The buzz around it feels rather minimal, so it could very well end up last among the four.

With weakness from the openers as well as its own magnificent word-of-mouth, Dolphin Tale will be able to duplicate what The Help, the previous movie to receive A+ CinemaScore, accomplished on its sophomore weekend: claiming the top spot. Comparable films include Soul Surfer (-31.4% on its second frame), Secretariat (-26.6%), and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (-17.4%). I expect its hold to be close to Meatballs, as there is little new direct competition, and A+ CinemaScore has proven to be strongly correlated to superb box office legs.  

Moneyball also enjoyed a strong CinemaScore of A, but it does have one obstacle of baseball playoff starting this weekend after Major League Baseball changed the schedule this season. A drop somewhere between The Social Network, Red, and The Town, well-received films that opened in similar range, is likely.

Not surprisingly, Disney extended The Lion King's run beyond the initial two-week engagement after its splendid performance. However, as we have seen with Toy Story 1/2 re-release, Michael Jackson's This Is It, and Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus Concert Tour, when the engagement was extended, the films would suffer steep declines because one of the main reasons the first two weeks got good business is precisely the limited time; by the time the third weekend came, many were either not aware, or those who were had already seen the movie, indicated by the small Friday increase. The Lion King did hold much better on its second weekend than all of those films; even Toy Story re-release dropped 37.8% with no new competition, while The Lion King declined just 27.3% when facing Dolphin Tale. And unlike TS, it does not have to face a $30m+ opener on its 3rd weekend. It is also not losing any theaters; in fact, according to BOM, it will gain 10. So while the Friday increase will still be quite a bit smaller than the previous week, it should be good enough to avoid a 50% drop.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Weekend Box Office (Sep 23 - 25): Dolphin Tale, Moneyball, Killer Elite, Abduction

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Lion King 3D18.0-40.3%
2. Dolphin Tale16.5$4,705 PTA
3. Moneyball16.0$5,346 PTA
4. Killer Elite11.0$3,684 PTA
5. Abduction10.0$3,207 PTA
6. Contagion8.5-41.6%
7. Drive5.5-51.5%
8. The Help4.8-26.3%
9. I Don't Know How She Does It2.5-43.2%
10. Straw Dogs2.3-55.1%

Won't be able to write in details this week, so just want to point out that September has never seen top 12 films to gross over $100m combined (unadjusted to inflation); the highest was 9 years ago when Sweet Home Alabama set September's opening weekend record with $35.7m to help the top 12 gross $91.8m together. With the 8 holdovers looking set to grab at least $40m, it is unlikely that the four openers will total over $60m, and with Dolphin Tale poised to outperform the initial expectations, one, or maybe even two, of the other three could disappoint. Also I don't expect Drive to hold all that well with its C- CinemaScore and fierce new competitions for its demo.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (09/12 - 09/18): Captain America repeated, but Sanctum was the more impressive performer

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)36.5m ($5.72m)+4.3%44,715983,29771.5m ($11.20m)
2. Sanctum(夺命深渊)35.8m ($5.61m)+62.7%33,128880,03957.8m ($9.05m)
3. Love in Space(全球热恋)27m ($4.23m)-40,127813,25354m ($8.46m)
4. Drive Angry(狂暴飞车)24.5m ($3.84m)NEW26,523637,02524.5m ($3.84m)
5. My Kingdom(大武生)21m ($3.29m)-38,092647,34842m ($6.58m)
6. Source Code(源代码)7.1m ($1.11m)-60.6%10,512216,99268.1m ($10.67m)
7. The Man from Nowhere(孤胆特工)5m ($0.78m)New10,558165,4535m ($0.78m)
8. Overheard 2(窃听风云2)2.8m ($0.44m)-77.6%5,74183,482216.3m ($33.86m)
9. Cars 2(赛车总动员2)2.8m ($0.44m)-50.0%3,45677,75677.3m ($12.11m)
10. Yang Shan-zhou(杨善洲)2m ($0.31m)-53.5%80848,60281.4m ($12.70m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1566)

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Saturday Morning Rants: the impressiveness of The Lion King's opening and the ridiculousness of "early Friday numbers"

The Lion King 3D got $8.8m on Friday.  To put this in perspective, on the same weekend two years ago, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs turned a $8.1m Friday into a $30.3m opening weekend, or a 3.72 internal multiplier.  People may argue this has more rush factor since it is a re-release of a classic, but the 3D re-release of Toy Story/Toy Story 2 double-feature had a 3.84 IM on its opening weekend.  With those as comparisons, The Lion King is looking at a $33m start, and that's simply incredible.

So just how magnificent this opening is?  To me, it ranks right up there both as the most surprising and as the best opening of the year period.  The average pre-release forecast was around $15m, and I personally thought I was pushing its upper limit with my $22m prediction, given its theater count and the amount of screens.  The screen count is what makes this start especially impressive even in term of the raw number.  Because it is a re-release, The Lion King is not hogging multiple screens like family films traditionally do to achieve big openings.  In fact, it occupies only a single screen in almost all of its 2,330 theaters.  If we assume 5 showings per theater per day and $10 average ticket price (it's 3D but also has many kids in attendence, so should not average much higher), then each showing yesterday attracted 75 people on average.  We could compare this to Transformers 3 for example.  The latter got $33.0m in 9,300 screens on its first Friday, translating to 70 people per show even if we assume the same average ticket price.  And when we consider family films tend to have trouble filling the late showings, The Lion King would basically need to sell out plenty of the afternoon and early night showings across the country to achieve such start.  One more food for thought: when the original one first expanded wide in the summer of 1994, it got $40.9m in 2,552 theaters for a $16,022 PTA; 17 years later, in the early fall, the re-release is looking at a $14K PTA.  That's some staying power.

Toy Story double-feature re-release, which was also advertised as a two-week only event but extended beyond, ended with a 2.46 overall multiplier.  If The Lion King matches it, it will be looking at adding another $80m to its total and make its way to the all-time Top 10 on the domestic chart.

One other matter I feel compelled to say something about is how the "early friday numbers" are being reported earlier and earlier to the point where "respected" trade papers such as Variety and The Hollywood Reporter are giving weekend projections on Friday afternoon based on early matinee returns.  That is simply ridiculous, and we have seen how off these projections could get.  A month ago, Rise of the Planet of the Apes saw its reported Friday number rose steadily from $13m in the afternoon to $15m early evening to $18m late night and then finally $19.5m with real estimate, leading to a change in weekend projection from mid-$30m to $50m+ and a complete alteration in article's tone.  Now with The Lion King, the first report at around 3pm PST from Variety said $15-18m for the weekend directly without even giving what they thought Friday number would be.  Then THR revised to $22-24m later at night, and it turned out we're looking at $30m+.  We know why they are doing it ealy to attract traffic, but it is still sad to see the two renowned trade papers stoop to the level of Nikki Finki at Deadline and sacrifice the fundementals of professional journalism.

Friday, September 16, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 16 - 18): The Lion King 3D, Drive, I Don't Know How She Does It, Straw Dogs

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Lion King 3D22.0$9,442 PTA
2. Contagion12.0-46.4%
3. Drive11.5$3,985 PTA
4. I Don't Know How She Does It7.0$2,827 PTA
5. The Help6.3-29.4%
6. Straw Dogs5.7$2,367 PTA
7. The Warrior2.8-46.6%
8. The Debt2.7-43.4%
9. Rise of the Planet of the Apes2.3-40.8%
10. Colombiana2.1-46.8%

What was supposed to be a close race for the top spot is turning out to be not the case at all, as The Lion King 3D is blowing away its competitors in terms of advance sales and number of tweets. By Thursday afternoon, it accounted for 62% of Fandango sales, simply a remarkable figure for this time of the year. Its tweets reached 10,000 on Wednesday alone. On the Box Office Mojo front, 18% of voters say they will see it on the opening weekend. That is a bit lower than what the 3D re-release of Toy Story/Toy Story 2 received - 22.9%; however, the TS re-release was a double-feature, which limited the amount of showings it could have per day as well as its family appeals, since the kids will have great difficulty sitting in theater for 3 hours. The Lion King will not have such problem, and it will maintain Toy Story's nostalgia factor. If we just look at the 18%, it is an excellent number for a family film. On the same weekend two years ago, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs turned 13.9% OW interest into a $30.3m start. The Lion King does not have the theater count to match that start, but it could get close to a $10,000 per-theater-average, as the Toy Story double-feature re-release achieved $7K PTA while playing an average of only 3 showings per day. It is true that 3D is nowhere near as popular as two years ago, but The Lion King will also be played in some 2D screens to alleviate the concern.

For a while, it looks like Drive may suffer a similar fate as Warrior did last week, a superbly-reviewed film not able to attract the audience it deserves. However, as the week progresses, its prospect is becoming better and better. The OW interest at BOM poll jumped from around 19% on Monday to 23.8% by Thursday night. Also the Never percentage is below 30%, indicating people are open to check out the film, and the excellent reviews (93%/8.3 average at RottenTomatoes, 81 with 6 100s at Metacritic) could convince last-minute deciders to propel its opening higher. The big jump in theater count from originally estimated 2,400 to 2,886 exhibits FilmDistrict's confidence, and it finally entered Fandango's advance sales list on Thursday with 3%, a figure that will continue to improve into the weekend.

Weinstein Company has not aggressively marketed I Don't Know How She Does It, and the awareness and interests are not very high as a result. Its BOM poll shows a paltry 2.2% for the portion of voters who are interested in seeing it the opening weekend; although people may argue BOM demo is as far away from the film's targeted audience as possible, we could still compare it with films of similar demo, and the number trails the ones from others such as Did You Hear About the Morgans (5.0% OW, $6.6m opening), Love Happens (5.4% OW, $8.1m opening), and The Women (4.0% OW, $10.1m opening). The appeal for this film does appear to skew even more females than usual, and there has not been a female-oriented comedy in a while, so some upside surprise to a $3,000+ PTA could occur.

Among the four new wide releases, Straw Dogs has the weakest outlook. Last week demonstrated yet again when Major Theater Chain tracking came in way below ReelSource's, the final outcome will most likely be even weaker than MTC's forecast, and Straw Dogs essentially matched Warrior's tracking with mid-teen from RS and $8m from MTC. In addition, it still had not cracked the top 5 in Fandango's advance sales by Thursday afternoon, quite terrible for a R-rated thriller, and any time a R-rated film of this genre is unable to grab over 10% OW from the BOM poll, it will have trouble exceeding $3,000 PTA.

Wednesday, September 14, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (09/05 - 09/11): Captain America conquered the Mid-Autumn holiday

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Captain America: The First Avenger(美国队长)35m ($5.48m)New26,999928,62835m ($5.48m)
2. Love in Space(全球热恋)27m ($4.23m)New31,183805,48927m ($4.23m)
3. Sanctum(夺命深渊)22m ($3.45m)New13,894527,70422m ($3.45m)
4. My Kingdom(大武生)21m ($3.29m)New24,034632,72021m ($3.29m)
5. Source Code(源代码)18m ($2.82m)-58.1%33,438576,73861m ($9.56m)
6. Overheard 2(窃听风云2)12.5m ($1.96m)-69.3%25,783379,247213.5m ($33.42m)
7. The Smurfs(蓝精灵)7.3m ($1.14m)-71.9%12,577193,582257.8m ($40.34m)
8. Beginning of The Great Revival(建党伟业)5.7m ($0.89m)-18.6%1,07897,569403.43m ($62.46m)
9. Cars 2(赛车总动员2)5.6m ($0.88m)-78.4%12,233148,54174.5m ($11.67m)
10. Yang Shan-zhou(杨善洲)4.3m ($0.67m)-42.7%1,977124,24179.4m ($12.39m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1566)

Friday, September 9, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 9 - 11): Contagion, The Warrior, Bucky Larson

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Contagion24.2$7,500 PTA
2. The Help9.5-34.9%
3. The Warrior6.5$3,500 PTA
4. The Debt5.9-40.5%
5. Rise of the Planet of the Apes4.9-38.1%
6. Colombiana4.1-45.1%
7. Apollo 183.5-59.8%
8. Shark Night 3D3.1-63.1%
9. Our Idiot Brother2.7-50.5%
10. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World2.4-50.2%
-. Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star1.7$1,133 PTA

The signs for Contagion are looking quite good. Having Major Theater Chain's tracking a healthy percentage higher than the one from ReelSource, 30 vs. high-teen, is always nice. Even though the previous "rule" of the actual gross being even higher than MTC's in such circumstance has not been accurate lately, it is at least indicative of a number in between. The Box Office Mojo poll of 26.9% Opening Weekend interest is excellent for an adult-oriented film. By comparison, Ocean's Thirteen had 27.6%, The Adjustment Bureau 23.5%, Green Zone 19.3%, and The Informant 15.7%. It also occupied 14% of Fandango's tickets sale on Thursday, up from 8% the previous day, and the reviews are positive enough to not deter the last-minute deciders. Expect a per-theater-average around $7,500 for a $24-25m opening.  

The Warrior, on the other hand, is facing a uphill battle despite excellent reviews. The fighting genre is not known for big openings, and there is little star power in the cast. Having MTC come in significantly lower than RS, 8 vs. mid-teen, is a serious concern, as the rule works a larger percentage of time in this case and points to a sub-$8m start. The BOM poll of 11.0% OW interest is lower than The Fighter's 16.1% and just a bit higher than Pride & Glory's 9.7%. Undisputed, another comparable film, opened to a $4,127 PTA in 1,102 theaters, while The Protector had $3,266 PTA in 1,541. With the screen competition The Warrior is facing, a higher average in the $5K range appears unlikely. I do hope I am wrong, but at this time I am feeling a rather disappointing first punch.  

Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star reminds me a lot of The Rocker, Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story, Let's Go to Prison, and Grandma's Boy. I understand MTC has it pretty high at $5.5m, but with a tiny 2.2% OW interest at BOM, lower than any of those films received, I cannot see a PTA over $2,000.

A couple of factors could make this Sunday a bad day at the box office: the opening week of NFL regular reason and the 10th anniversary of 9/11. On the equivalent weekend last year, the top 10 films dropped an average of 44.9% Saturday-to-Sunday, with 3 declining over 50%. The 9/11 effect could add a few more percentages, and look for the Sunday night game in New York between Cowboys and Jets to score big rating. Combining it with the fact that last Sunday was helped immensely by the Labor Day holiday, we should see some higher-than-normal drops for holdovers.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (08/29 - 09/04): Fall season begun with Source Code claiming the top spot

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Source Code(源代码)43m ($6.74m)New48,4441,414,93943m ($6.74m)
2. Overheard 2(窃听风云2)40.7m ($6.38m)-49.9%50,1481,217,469201m ($31.46m)
3. The Smurfs(蓝精灵)26m ($4.07m)-48.5%27,024696,177250.5m ($39.20m)
4. Cars 2(赛车总动员2)25.9m ($4.06m)-39.8%33,761692,32868.9m ($10.79m)
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2(哈利波特7(下))11.5m ($1.80m)-54%15,399295,705408m ($63.62m)
6. Transformers: Dark of the Moon(变形金刚3)9.4m ($1.47m)-53.9%10,764225,7441.0808b ($167.95m)
7. Perfect Baby(巴黎宝贝)9m ($1.41m)-10.0%21,264312,93419m ($2.98m)
8. Yang Shan-zhou(杨善洲)7.5m ($1.18m)-18.5%3,741205,42375.1m ($11.72m)
9. Beginning of The Great Revival(建党伟业)7m ($1.10m)+29.6%2,515145,258397.73m ($61.57m)
10. Season of the Witch(女巫季节)6.6m ($1.03m)-61.2%14,149218,32636.8m ($5.76m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1567)

China Weekly Box Office (08/22 - 08/28): Cars 2 opened to third place as Overhead 2 repeated

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Overheard 2(窃听风云2)81.3m ($12.72m)+2.9%68,9542,421,083160.3m ($25.08m)
2. The Smurfs(蓝精灵)50.5m ($7.90m)-38.4%33,6551,350,628224.5m ($35.13m)
3. Cars 2(赛车总动员2)43m ($6.73m)New37,5371,129,20143m ($6.73m)
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2(哈利波特7(下))25m ($3.91m)-54.5%23,735653,594396.5m ($61.82m)
5. Transformers: Dark of the Moon(变形金刚3)20.4m ($3.19m)-50.2%17,257490,6201.0714b ($166.48m)
6. Season of the Witch(女巫季节)17m ($2.66m)+28.8%26,281566,47730.2m ($4.73m)
7. Perfect Baby(巴黎宝贝)10m ($1.57m)New17,178340,25110m ($1.57m)
8. Treasure Hunt(无价之宝)9.9m ($1.55m)+20.7%20,051335,28218.1m ($2.83m)
9. Yang Shan-zhou(杨善洲)9.2m ($1.44m)-29.2%4,952289,85567.6m ($10.54m)
10. Shen Zhou 11(飞天)7.4m ($1.16m)-2,962212,58256.2m ($8.76m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1565)

Friday, September 2, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 2 - 5): Apollo 18, The Debt, Shark Night 3D

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Help17.2+18.6%
2. Apollo 1812.5$3,756 PTA
3. The Debt10.5$5,750 PTA
4. Rise of the Planet of the Apes8.8-0.8%
5. Shark Night 3D8.0$2,851 PTA
6. Colombiana7.5-27.9%
7. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World7.0+16.5%
8. The Smurfs6.0+26.3%
9. Our Idiot Brother4.7-33.0%
10. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark4.5-47.2%

Of the three new wide releases, Apollo 18 stands the best chance of unseating The Help as the No. 1 film of the weekend. However, after some initial good reactions to its first trailer, Weinstein has failed to capitalize on them on the marketing front; instead, the film got pushed back to its current date, and the interests have gradually subsided. Its 11% Opening Weekend figure at Box Office Mojo poll is mediocre for a horror movie that crosses into the sci-fi genre. The one positive is its PG-13 rating, given all the recent openers appealing to the 13-25 male demo have been R-rated (Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, Our Idiot Brother, Conan the Barbarian, Fright Night, etc). The situation is similar to when Babylon A.D. opened in 2008, and we could see a similar adjusted gross as the result.

The immediate comparison to Shark Night 3D would be Piranha 3D, but unfortunately for the former, the 3D appeal has dropped so much this year that not only it no longer provides a boost to a film's PTA, it may have become a hindrance as people who could not find 2D showings at their preferred theaters may decide not to see the film at all. Also unlike Piranha 3D, there is no abundance of nudity in Shark Night as a headline attraction. The Box Office Mojo poll reflects the difference, as Shark Night 3D's 9.6% OW interest pales against Piranha 3D's 17.4%. In the end, it may not even get a $3,000 PTA over the first 4 days.  

The Debt opened to $0.970532m on Wednesday. While the number may not appear all that impressive on the first glance, it is in fact quite good when we compare against past Wednesday openers on the Labor Day weekend:

MovieWednesday (m)4-Day Weekend (m)Wed-to-OW Multiplier
The American1.67436316.6622339.95
Balls of Fury1.69114.1114548.35
The Constant Gardener0.92982910.96131111.79
Vanity Fair0.5998256.26892510.45

The American had higher pre-release buzz and then suffered from poor word-of-mouth, while Balls of Fury skewed younger males, so a 10+ multiplier like the other three films did should be achievable for The Debt. That will put its 4-day weekend at over $10m and give it a 6-day start of over $12m.

With Hurricane Irene hurting last weekend's box office and the weakness of new openers, we could expect holdovers to experience healthier holds comparing to past Labor Day frames. Given the Labor Day history, older-female oriented films like The Help and family films such as Spy Kids and The Smurfs should see the best holds.

Friday, August 26, 2011

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Aug 26 - 28): The Help will be No. 1 again over Don't Be Afraid of the Dark, Colombiana, and Out Idiot Brother

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Help15.5-22.6%
2. Don't Be Afraid of the Dark11.0$3,986 PTA
3. Rise of the Planet of the Apes10.5-34.9%
4. Colombiana9.0$3,443 PTA
5. Spy Kids: All the Time in the World7.0-39.9%
6. Our Idiot Brother6.0$2,348 PTA
7. The Smurfs5.2-33.4%
8. Fright Night3.8-50.7%
9. Conan the Barbarian3.8-62.1%
10. Final Destination 53.6-53.3%

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (08/15 - 08/21): Overheard 2 built on the original's success with a gangbuster opening

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. The Smurfs(蓝精灵)82m ($12.83m)-10.9%48,3692,157,327174m ($27.23m)
2. Overheard 2(窃听风云2)79m ($12.36m)New45,9062,330,38379m ($12.36m)
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2(哈利波特7(下))55m ($8.61m)-56.3%48,4541,452,720371.5m ($57.91m)
4. Transformers: Dark of the Moon(变形金刚3)41m ($6.42m)-46.8%33,1991,009,8521.051b ($163.29m)
5. Season of the Witch(女巫季节)13.2m ($2.07m)New15,177426,90813.2m ($2.07m)
6. Yang Shan-zhou(杨善洲)13m ($2.03m)-27.8%6,848408,03558.4m ($9.10m)
7. Treasure Hunt(无价之宝)8.2m ($1.28m)New13,016267,7118.2m ($1.28m)
8. Shen Zhou 11(飞天)7.4m ($1.16m)-19.6%3,839235,06948.8m ($7.60m)
9. Beginning of the Great Revival(建党伟业)7.2m ($1.13m)-22.6%3,259213,967385.33m ($59.63m)
10. Oceans(海洋)6.2m ($0.97m)+210%8,153197,3898.2m ($1.28m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1565)

Hong Kong police films have always been a popular genre in China, but only a few of them received good word-of-mouth, with Infernal Affairs being the most well-known example. Overheard became another one in 2009 and was able to turn a 24m yuan start into a 89m yuan total. Building upon that success, Overheard 2 roared to a 79m yuan 4-day opening. The WOM again appears good, and it should top 200m yuan in the end.

The Smurfs had a solid hold on its sophomore week. 3D family films tend to experience good late legs, so a $40m+ total looks likely. For the big two, Transformers 3 continues to be on track for a $170m finish, while Deathly Hallow Part 2 should gross close to $65m.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

China Weekly Box Office (08/08 - 08/14): The Smurfs entered the frame to battle Harry Potter and Transformers with a strong start

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2(哈利波特7(下))126m ($19.72m)-33.9%82,9893,294,979316.5m ($49.30m)
2. The Smurfs(蓝精灵)92m ($14.40m)New42,7052,336,21192m ($14.40m)
3. Transformers: Dark of the Moon(变形金刚3)77m ($12.05m)-53.9%51,1011,871,6571.01b ($156.87m)
4. Yang Shan-zhou(杨善洲)18m ($2.82m)+5.9%7,705540,05445.4m ($7.07m)
5. Legend Of The Moles-The Frozen Horror (摩尔庄园冰世纪)10.3m ($1.61m)New15,838367,22510.3m ($1.61m)
6. Beginning of the Great Revival(建党伟业)9.3m ($1.46m)+36.8%3,535246,815378.13m ($58.50m)
7. Shen Zhou 11(飞天)9.2m ($1.44m)-16.4%4,217284,60041.4m ($6.44m)
8. L-O-V-E(爱到底)3.6m ($0.56m)-52.0%11,390123,79611.1m ($1.72m)
9. No Limit(无极限之危情速递)3.3m ($0.52m)New7,941112,2063.3m ($0.52m)
10. Seer(赛尔号)2.9m ($0.45m)-77.2%9,531106,65642.6m ($6.61m)
(Source, 1 Chinese Yuan == $0.1565)