Friday, December 10, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 10 - 12): The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, The Tourist

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader40.0$11,250 PTA
2. The Tourist16.5$5,990 PTA
3. Tangled15.5-28.3%
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 19.0-47.1%
5. Unstoppable3.9-34.7%
6. Burlesque3.8-38.0%
7. Love and Other Drugs3.7-34.5%
8. Megamind2.7-45.3%
9. Due Date2.6-37.1%
10. Faster2.3-41.5%

Even with the 3D surcharge, the 3rd installment of Narnia is in no position to challenge the openings of its first two films. The Box Office Mojo poll showed 28.3% Opening Weekend for The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, while Prince Caspian received 42.0% and 44.4% for The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe. The poll in fact is similar to what Eragon got (26.6% OW), and that opened to $23.2m without 3D help. The surcharge should push Narnia close to $40m, but not much more.

The Tourist was positioned to be the Ocean's Eleven of this December, but more and more likely it will have trouble surpassing even Knight & Day's opening weekend, despite the fact that the Wednesday start diffused some of the weekend earnings for the latter. The signs are certainly not pretty. At BOM, 22.6% users among the 1,000+ votes said they are interested in seeing it the opening weekend, comparing to 26.5% for Knight & Day. The Depp/Jolie combo also possesses more online pulls than Cruise/Diaz at this stage of their respective careers. On the Twitter front, it was on track to get around 5,500 tweets from Monday to Thursday. K&D had a ratio of 3,429, but that was skewed due to its Wednesday opening. Killers had 766, while Salt had 1,087. Look for a ratio around 1,000 for The Tourist, given its theater count not being super high and a relatively generic title. The reviews are quite scathing, so the long term prospect of the film does not look bright either.

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