Friday, December 31, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 31 - Jan 2): Happy New Year!

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Little Fockers28.0-9.2%
2. True Grit25.0+0.6%
3. Tron21.0+9.7%
4. Yogi Bear12.5+59.5%
5. Tangled11.0+71.1%
6. The Fighter9.0+18.3%
7. Gulliver's Travels9.0+42.7%
8. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader8.5-10.3%
9. Black Swan8.2+31.1%
10. The King's Speech6.8+51.2%

Wish everyone a Happy 2011!

Friday, December 24, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 24 - 26): Little Fockers, True Grit, Gulliver's Travels, The King's Speech

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Little Fockers26.0$7,353 PTA
2. Tron22.0-50.0%
3. True Grit21.5$7,056 PTA
4. Gulliver's Travels12.0$4,713 PTA
5. Yogi Bear10.0-39.1%
6. Black Swan8.0-4.6%
7. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader7.9-36.2%
8. The Fighter7.6-37.4%
9. Tangled6.8-22.5%
10. The Tourist4.4-48.4%
11. How Do You Know4.2-43.9%
12. The King's Speech3.7$5,286 PTA

Merry Christmas!

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Last weekend's Predictions

I was out on a 7-day cruise vacation the whole last week and didn't find time to post my predictions here on the blog. However, I did spend some quick time entering the numbers for the Box Office Mojo Derby (while getting charged $0.65 a minute on the ship), as that is one hobby I couldn't abandon. Here are the numbers for reference (you could also find them here):

1. Tron Legacy - 35.0
2. Yogi Bear - 14.0
3. The Fighter - 13.0
4. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader - 12.5
5. Tanged - 10.0
6. Black Swan - 9.0
7. The Tourist - 8.9
8. How Do You Know - 7.5
9. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I - 4.5
10. Unstoppable - 2.1

Friday, December 10, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 10 - 12): The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, The Tourist

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader40.0$11,250 PTA
2. The Tourist16.5$5,990 PTA
3. Tangled15.5-28.3%
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 19.0-47.1%
5. Unstoppable3.9-34.7%
6. Burlesque3.8-38.0%
7. Love and Other Drugs3.7-34.5%
8. Megamind2.7-45.3%
9. Due Date2.6-37.1%
10. Faster2.3-41.5%

Even with the 3D surcharge, the 3rd installment of Narnia is in no position to challenge the openings of its first two films. The Box Office Mojo poll showed 28.3% Opening Weekend for The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, while Prince Caspian received 42.0% and 44.4% for The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe. The poll in fact is similar to what Eragon got (26.6% OW), and that opened to $23.2m without 3D help. The surcharge should push Narnia close to $40m, but not much more.

The Tourist was positioned to be the Ocean's Eleven of this December, but more and more likely it will have trouble surpassing even Knight & Day's opening weekend, despite the fact that the Wednesday start diffused some of the weekend earnings for the latter. The signs are certainly not pretty. At BOM, 22.6% users among the 1,000+ votes said they are interested in seeing it the opening weekend, comparing to 26.5% for Knight & Day. The Depp/Jolie combo also possesses more online pulls than Cruise/Diaz at this stage of their respective careers. On the Twitter front, it was on track to get around 5,500 tweets from Monday to Thursday. K&D had a ratio of 3,429, but that was skewed due to its Wednesday opening. Killers had 766, while Salt had 1,087. Look for a ratio around 1,000 for The Tourist, given its theater count not being super high and a relatively generic title. The reviews are quite scathing, so the long term prospect of the film does not look bright either.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (11/29 - 12/5)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Just Call Me Nobody(大笑江湖)60m ($9.01m)New36,9281,639,92660m ($9.01m)
2. Sacrifice(赵氏孤儿)50m ($7.51m)New18,2961,403,31150m ($7.51m)
3. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1(哈利·波特与死亡圣器(上))34.5m ($5.18m)-58.9%39,4261,052,471199.5m ($30.00m)
4. Resident Evil: Afterlife(生化危机4:来生)21.3m ($3.20m)-53.7%23,643515,364135.8m ($20.42m)
5. Righteous Kill(火线特工)5.3m ($0.80m)New9,796184,0705.3m ($0.80m)
6. Bruce Lee(李小龙)4.6m ($0.69m)-45.9%10,513147,34113.1m ($1.97m)
7. Super Player(大玩家)2.9m ($0.44m)-35.6%8,919113,2377.4m ($1.11m)
8. Unstoppable(危情时速)2.5m ($0.38m)-64.3%4,88085,14965m ($9.79m)
9. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole(猫头鹰王国:守卫者传奇)2.2m ($0.33m)-56.0%3,24360,68928.5m ($4.29m)
10. Xin Kang Ding Qing Ge(康定情歌)0.52m ($0.078m)-75.2%74019,9768.2m ($1.24m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1501)

Friday, December 3, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Dec 3 - 5): The Warrior's Way

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Tangled23.0-52.8%
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 119.1-61.1%
3. Burlesque6.7-43.9%
4. Unstoppable6.1-46.6%
5. Love and Other Drugs5.3-45.6%
6. Megamind5.1-59.4%
7. Due Date3.7-48.4%
8. Faster3.5-58.9%
9. The Warrior's Way2.7$1,665 PTA
10. The Next Three Days2.6-44.5%

Even though it is the sole wide release of the weekend, the signs for The Warrior's Way are universally bad. The advance sales appear non-existent. It looks to gather around a weak 2,200 tweets from Monday to Thursday. With Ninja Assassin getting a ratio of 1,714, Jonah Hex at 3,124, and it having a smaller theater count, expect a ratio in the low 2,000 range for an opening day around $1m. The BOM poll comparison between those films - 5.9% Opening Weekend and 6.1% Sometime in Theaters for The Warrior's Way, 17.4% + 12.4% for Ninja Assassin, and 11.2% + 19.1% for Jonah Hex - also points an opening around $3m.