Friday, November 19, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 19 - 21): Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, The Next Three Days

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1134.0$32,485 PTA
2. Megamind15.9-45.4%
3. Unstoppable12.7-44.0%
4. Due Date7.7-50.1%
5. The Next Three Days6.5$2,535 PTA
6. Morning Glory5.5-40.2%
7. Skyline3.9-66.6%
8. Red3.0-39.7%
9. For Colored Girls1.9-70.8%
10. Fair Game1.3+27.4%

The Harry Potter franchise has seen different release dates, different ratings, and remarkable growth of midnight showings, but one thing has stayed quite consistent among its films: the opening day gross without midnight. Outside Chamber of Secrets, which had $29m, the other ones all opened to $32-36m when we take the midnight earnings out. Expect Deathly Hallows Part I to follow suit on that front. However, as previously mentioned, the culture of seeing event films at midnight (or earlier if studio allows it) has developed big time over the last several years, and with a record 3,700 midnight locations, Deathly Hallows is poised to break the mark of $30m that Eclipse just set this summer. Combining the two, we could see an opening day around $67m, then a $40m Saturday (+11% from Friday without midnight), and $27m Sunday for a $134m weekend, a new high for the franchise even when adjusted for inflation (currently held by Goblet of Fire's $127m).

There are many worrisome signs for The Next Three Days. The general buzz is low, as the marketing has not established why viewers should care about seeing the film in theaters. The number of tweets has not picked up this week, and it has the worst Box Office Mojo poll for a Russell Crowe film since they started the tradition. The Opening Weekend percentage of 8.3% is significantly worse than what his previous film, State of Play, had (15.6%) and basically on par with A Good Year's figure, a romantic drama that opened to a meek $3.7m; the number also trails From Paris with Love's 9.1%. I will be very surprised if this breaks double digits.


  1. I have to say, great prediction for TN3D. Respect!

  2. Yeah. I've been following your predictions for the past 6 months or so and you are doing a great job. If you wanted to start emailing me your thoughts earlier in the week so I don't have to wait until Thursday I wouldn't mind one bit. ;)

    When are you going to post your Thanksgiving Holiday thoughts/numbers?

  3. Thanks. Planning on doing this week's numbers tomorrow night, although I will share the long/short positions on HSX earlier.