Tuesday, November 30, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (11/15 - 28): Harry Potter 7 and Resident Evil 4

11/15 - 21

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1(哈利·波特与死亡圣器(上))81m ($12.21m)New29,6212,493,07481m ($12.21m)
2. Resident Evil: Afterlife(生化危机4:来生)68.5m ($10.32m)New45,2291,706,52868.5m ($10.32m)
3. Unstoppable(危情时速)15.5m ($2.34m)-61.3%24,122516,66655.5m ($8.36m)
4. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole(猫头鹰王国:守卫者传奇)7.3m ($1.10m)-47.9%9,475185,46721.3m ($3.21m)
5. Color Me Love(爱出色)3.6m ($0.54m)-56.1%10,023126,44811.8m ($1.78m)
6. My Sassy Girl 2(我的野蛮女友2)2.7m ($0.41m)-66.3%8,09195,27118.4m ($2.78m)
7. Wind Blast(西风烈)2.4m ($0.36m)-73.3%7,65878,07463.4m ($9.51m)
8. Xin Kang Ding Qing Ge(康定情歌)1.8m ($0.27m)-18.2%2,57964,4235.6m ($0.84m)
9. Love Tactics(爱情36计)1m ($0.15m)-73.7%4,41834,4354.8m ($0.72m)
10. Di Yi Shu Ji(第一书记)0.87m ($0.13m)-59439,29512m ($1.8m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1507)

11/22 - 28

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1(哈利·波特与死亡圣器(上))84m ($12.61m)+3.7%62,0382,636,534165m ($24.82m)
2. Resident Evil: Afterlife(生化危机4:来生)46m ($6.90m)-32.8%36,1701,126,346114.5m ($17.22m)
3. Bruce Lee(李小龙)8.5m ($1.28m)New11,412267,3798.5m ($1.28m)
4. Unstoppable(危情时速)7m ($1.05m)-54.8%10,600234,66362.5m ($9.41m)
5. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole(猫头鹰王国:守卫者传奇)5m ($0.75m)-31.5%5,267132,87226.3m ($3.96m)
6. Super Player(大玩家)4.5m ($0.68m)New8,111168,6024.5m ($0.68m)
7. Xin Kang Ding Qing Ge(康定情歌)2.1m ($0.32m)+16.7%2,47872,8917.7m ($1.16m)
8. Color Me Love(爱出色)1.2m ($0.18m)-66.7%4,07742,64313m ($1.96m)
9. Di Yi Shu Ji(第一书记)1m ($0.13m)+14.9%74950,78713m ($1.93m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1501)

Thursday, November 25, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 26 - 28): Tangled, Burlesque, Love and Other Drugs, Faster

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 150.0-60.0%
2. Tangled41.0 / 60 (5-day)$11,379 PTA
3. Burlesque14.0 / 23 (5-day)$4,610 PTA
4. Megamind13.5-15.7%
5. Unstoppable10.1-22.3%
6. Love and Other Drugs9.8 / 14 (5-day)$3,992 PTA
7. Faster8.0 / 12 (5-day)$3,260 PTA
8. Due Date5.8-34.9%
9. The Next Three Days4.9-25.1%
10. Morning Glory3.9-25.0%

Don't have much time to write other than saying Happy Thanksgiving! Basically look for holdovers to have excellent holds with the holiday boost. Harry Potter would be an exception since it grossed $24m, or 19%, during opening midnight on its initial frame. As for the openers, the BOM poll for Tangled is on par with Despicable Me and just a little worse than Enchanted, which didn't have 3D and still grossed $49m over its first five days, indicating $60m for it is achievable. Burlesque's daily pattern should be similar to what Rent had, but with a higher opening day. Faster's BOM poll is significantly worse than what Hitman and Ninja Assassin received, so it may not even beat Love and Other Drugs, even though the latter isn't enjoying the greatest reviews.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 19 - 21): Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I, The Next Three Days

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1134.0$32,485 PTA
2. Megamind15.9-45.4%
3. Unstoppable12.7-44.0%
4. Due Date7.7-50.1%
5. The Next Three Days6.5$2,535 PTA
6. Morning Glory5.5-40.2%
7. Skyline3.9-66.6%
8. Red3.0-39.7%
9. For Colored Girls1.9-70.8%
10. Fair Game1.3+27.4%

The Harry Potter franchise has seen different release dates, different ratings, and remarkable growth of midnight showings, but one thing has stayed quite consistent among its films: the opening day gross without midnight. Outside Chamber of Secrets, which had $29m, the other ones all opened to $32-36m when we take the midnight earnings out. Expect Deathly Hallows Part I to follow suit on that front. However, as previously mentioned, the culture of seeing event films at midnight (or earlier if studio allows it) has developed big time over the last several years, and with a record 3,700 midnight locations, Deathly Hallows is poised to break the mark of $30m that Eclipse just set this summer. Combining the two, we could see an opening day around $67m, then a $40m Saturday (+11% from Friday without midnight), and $27m Sunday for a $134m weekend, a new high for the franchise even when adjusted for inflation (currently held by Goblet of Fire's $127m).

There are many worrisome signs for The Next Three Days. The general buzz is low, as the marketing has not established why viewers should care about seeing the film in theaters. The number of tweets has not picked up this week, and it has the worst Box Office Mojo poll for a Russell Crowe film since they started the tradition. The Opening Weekend percentage of 8.3% is significantly worse than what his previous film, State of Play, had (15.6%) and basically on par with A Good Year's figure, a romantic drama that opened to a meek $3.7m; the number also trails From Paris with Love's 9.1%. I will be very surprised if this breaks double digits.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (11/1 - 14)

11/1 - 7

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Wind Blast(西风烈)25m ($3.75m)-7.41%31,018763,59152m ($7.79m)
2. Lost in Panic Room(密室之不可告人)10.5m ($1.58m)+61.5%15,618352,23017m ($2.55m)
3. My Sassy Girl 2(我的野蛮女友2)7.7m ($1.16m)New8,168247,3497.7m ($1.16m)
4. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps(华尔街2:金钱永不眠)5.2m ($0.78m)-45.8%7,147150,94347.5m ($7.14m)
5. Detective Dee and the Mystery of the Phantom Flame(狄仁杰之通天帝国)4.9m ($0.74m)-55.5%7,171145,920290.5m ($43.49m)
6. Kong Fu Wing Chun(功夫咏春)4.8m ($0.72m)New10,839162,8754.8m ($0.72m)
7. Battle for Terra(塔拉星球之战)4.6m ($0.69m)-41.0%7,666124,76212.4m ($1.86m)
8. Perfect Wedding(完美嫁衣)2.9m ($0.44m)-55.4%5,56697,08714.6m ($2.19m)
9. Don Quixote(唐吉可德)1.75m ($0.26m)-63.5%2,95544,87134m ($5.1m)
10. Xin Kang Ding Qing Ge(康定情歌)1.55m ($0.23m)New3,85952,0481.55m ($0.23m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1500)

11/8 - 14

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Unstoppable(危情时速)42m ($6.33m)New33,5641,358,34442m ($6.33m)
2. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole(猫头鹰王国:守卫者传奇)14m ($2.11m)New9,646340,38414m ($2.11m)
3. Wind Blast(西风烈)9m ($1.36m)-64.0%16,186278,12161m ($9.15m)
4. Color Me Love(爱出色)8.2m ($1.24m)New13,068274,0648.2m ($1.24m)
5. My Sassy Girl 2(我的野蛮女友2)8m ($1.21m)+3.9%13,524268,99715.7m ($2.37m)
6. Lost in Panic Room(密室之不可告人)4m ($0.60m)-61.9%7,957133,68921m ($3.15m)
7. Love Tactics(爱情36计)3.8m ($0.57m)New8,226133,689/td>3.8m ($0.57m)
8. Xin Kang Ding Qing Ge(康定情歌)2.2m ($0.33m)+37.5%5,34683,3643.8m ($0.57m)
9. Kong Fu Wing Chun(功夫咏春)1.1m ($0.17m)-77.6%2,56736,0896m ($0.9m)
10. Battle for Terra(塔拉星球之战)0.95m ($0.14m)-79.3%2,33328,16413.4m ($2.01m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1507)

Friday, November 12, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 12 - 14): Unstoppable, Skyline, Morning Glory

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Megamind28.8-37.4%
2. Unstoppable25.0$7,795 PTA
3. Due Date17.5-46.5%
4. Skyline13.0$4,514 PTA
5. Morning Glory9.5$3,773 PTA
6. For Colored Girls7.4-62.0%
7. Red6.0-30.7%
8. Paranormal Activity 23.1-56.3%
9. Saw 3D3.0-61.2%
10. Secretariat2.7-33.6%

Friday, November 5, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Nov 5 - 7): Megamind, For Colored Girls, Due Date, 127 Hours

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Megamind55.0$13,945 PTA
2. For Colored Girls32.0$15,045 PTA
3. Due Date32.0$9,538 PTA
4. Saw 3D8.4-65.3%
5. Red7.3-32.0%
6. Paranormal Activity 25.8-64.9%
7. Hereafter3.6-43.9%
8. Jackass 3-D3.4-60.0%
9. Secretariat3.2-36.1%
10. The Social Network3.0-33.6%
-. 127 Hours0.28 (in 4 theaters)$70,000 PTA

1. Not only Megamind bears a sense of resemblance with Despicable Me in term of plots, they also share similarities on the box office front. The Box Office Mojo poll on when one will see the film has Megamind at 21.9% Opening Weekend and 25.1% Sometime in Theaters, while it was 21.0% OW and 27.5% SiT for Despicable Me. The tweets count is a little lower for Megamind, indicating a smaller Friday, but it will have a better internal multiplier and could make up good ground in the following two days. Madagascar 2, for example, had a 3.59 IM on the same weekend two years ago. Look for a $16-17m opening day and 3.2-3.4 IM for Megamind.

2. The battle for second place will be fierce and quite closer than most anticipated. In fact, there is a 50/50 chance that For Colored Girls would come out ahead of Due Date this weekend, even though the former will be in 1,228 fewer theaters. The key is that Tyler Perry's films do not need that many theaters; their strategy is to pick and saturate the right locations for their audience, and as a result, they usually have very high per-theater-averages. The BOM poll puts For Colored Girls between Why Did I Get Married Too? ($13,591 PTA in 2,155) and Madea Goes to Jail ($20,192 PTA in 2,032), and the advance sales have been excellent. The tracking tends to underestimate urban-focused films, and even they have the film to open in the mid-$20m range, so it does not appear breaking $30m should be an issue.

3. Due Date, on the other hand, is sold mainly on the drawing power of Robert Downey Jr. and the good will for director Todd Phillips from his previous film The Hangover, so the tracking, which put it at mid-$30m, could be overestimating in this case. The trailer didn't actually generate that much positive reaction, and it is now echoed by the mediocre reviews. In addition, there could be a fatigue factor on R-rated as well as male-oriented films given we have had plenty of them in October (For Colored Girls is also rated R, but its particular audience has been very underserved). The film should still break $30m, but not by much.

4. With three diverse films all expecting to do well, the holdovers will not have much space to hide, especially R-rated films. Jackass and Paranormal Activity 2 have the additional disadvantage of seeing their respective 3D and IMAX screens under assault. On the indie front, a big Oscar contender will enter the market. Danny Boyle's new film 127 Hours has been gathering accolades since its premiere in festivals, in particular regarding James Franco's performance. Opening in only 4 theaters this weekend, it should have a gigantic PTA exceeding $60K.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (10/25 - 31)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Wind Blast(西风烈)27m ($4.04m)New21,683818,92627m ($4.04m)
2. Detective Dee and the Mystery of the Phantom Flame(狄仁杰之通天帝国)11m ($1.65m)-50%15,630340,768285.6m ($42.75m)
3. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps(华尔街2:金钱永不眠)9.6m ($1.44m)-48.7%12,915294,65942.3m ($6.36m)
4. Battle for Terra(塔拉星球之战)7.8m ($1.17m)New11,121208,7237.8m ($1.17m)
5. Lost in Panic Room(密室之不可告人)6.59m ($0.99m)New6,896213,3246.59m ($0.99m)
6. Perfect Wedding(完美嫁衣)6.5m ($0.97m)+25.0%11,680218,04711.7m ($1.75m)
7. Don Quixote(唐吉可德)4.8m ($0.72m)-68.0%6,568120,75432m ($4.8m)
8. Inception(盗梦空间)4.3m ($0.64m)-31.7%4,652137,688456.65m ($67.74m)
9. Ai Qing Wei Xiu Zhan(爱情维修站)3m ($0.45m)-18.9%8,052109,6496.7m ($1.01m)
10. My Ex-Wife's Wedding(跟我的前妻谈恋爱)2.9m ($0.43m)+61.1%8,065104,1294.7m ($0.70m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1498)