Friday, October 29, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 29 - 31): Saw 3D

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Saw 3D22.0$7,835 PTA
2. Paranormal Activity 216.5-59.4%
3. Red10.6-29.5%
4. Jackass 3-D9.6-55.0%
5. Hereafter8.0-33.4%
6. The Social Network4.9-32.7%
7. Secretariat4.8-31.4%
8. Life as We Know It4.0-34.8%
9. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole1.9-41.5%
10. The Town1.9-30.9%

1. 3D will certainly help Saw's bottom line; if we assume the film would get 90% of its gross from 3D screens, the same amount of opening weekend admissions as what Saw VI had, a series-low by far, would give it $18-19m. In addition, although Paranormal Activity 2 will remain a potent force, facing it on its second weekend is quite a bit better than running into a phenomenon head-on as it was developing in full force, the fate suffered by Saw VI. Being advertised as the final installment and having Halloween falling on Sunday will help some too. Expect it to start out with $10m on Friday before earning around $22m over the three days.

2. 15% of Paranormal Activity 2's opening came from midnight ($6.3m out of $40.7m), so it will be difficult for the film to avoid 55% drop this weekend, Halloween or not. In fact, it would be an achievement if it could retain 50% of the audience excluding midnight (i.e. $17.2m+), although a good Friday increase in the range of 200% could be expected.

3. With only one film opening and it being rated R, look for another round of good holds in general. Hereafter also has the extra benefit of adding another 243 theaters (+11.1%). However, Halloween is not particularly a box office friendly holiday, as there will be many weekend activities, especially on the trick-or-treat Sunday. Here is what happened last time when Halloween fell on a Sunday, so look for harsher Sunday declines for non-horror films.

1 comment:

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