Friday, October 15, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 15 - 17): Jackass 3-D, Red

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Jackass 3-D34.0$11,035 PTA
2. Red23.0$7,066 PTA
3. The Social Network10.1-34.6%
4. Secretariat9.5-25.2%
5. Life as We Know It8.6-40.7%
6. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole4.5-34.7%
7. The Town3.8-40.7%
8. Easy A2.7-37.1%
9. My Soul to Take2.2-67.8%
10. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps2.1-54.4%

The Final Destination (42.9% increase over its predecessor in term of opening, 31.9% jump in per-theater-average) and Resident Evil: Afterlife (12.5% increase, 0.6% drop in PTA) provided us a couple of examples on how the 3D version of Jackass may perform. Jackass has a relatively stable audience, but the 3D fatigue could turn a few people off and make it have fewer admissions than before. Still, little so far has suggested it would not at least beat Jackass: Number Two: the BOM poll is stronger, there are plenty of tweets, and the advance sales are very robust. Resident Evil is likely the worst case scenario, while a 20% improvement to a $35m opening is well within reach.

On surface Red has a pretty generic plot, but what it has in its favor is the all-star cast, and the trailer effectively utilized that asset to generate a lot of interests, not just among the older demo, but also the 25-34 age crowd. The twitter report from BoxOffice.com may look weak, but I would contribute it to the super-generic title as the author Alex Edghill readily pointed out; a sub-100 ratio would not surprise me. The other signs are all quite excellent: Major Theater Chain tracking put it at $20m, 33% stronger than ReelSource' mid-teen figure; the BOM poll is much better than what films such as Cop Out and last year's Law Abiding Citizen received; and the PG-13 rating allows it to absorb any sneak-in or spillover business Jackass may generate. Look for it achieve a $7K+ PTA.

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