Friday, October 29, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 29 - 31): Saw 3D

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Saw 3D22.0$7,835 PTA
2. Paranormal Activity 216.5-59.4%
3. Red10.6-29.5%
4. Jackass 3-D9.6-55.0%
5. Hereafter8.0-33.4%
6. The Social Network4.9-32.7%
7. Secretariat4.8-31.4%
8. Life as We Know It4.0-34.8%
9. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole1.9-41.5%
10. The Town1.9-30.9%

1. 3D will certainly help Saw's bottom line; if we assume the film would get 90% of its gross from 3D screens, the same amount of opening weekend admissions as what Saw VI had, a series-low by far, would give it $18-19m. In addition, although Paranormal Activity 2 will remain a potent force, facing it on its second weekend is quite a bit better than running into a phenomenon head-on as it was developing in full force, the fate suffered by Saw VI. Being advertised as the final installment and having Halloween falling on Sunday will help some too. Expect it to start out with $10m on Friday before earning around $22m over the three days.

2. 15% of Paranormal Activity 2's opening came from midnight ($6.3m out of $40.7m), so it will be difficult for the film to avoid 55% drop this weekend, Halloween or not. In fact, it would be an achievement if it could retain 50% of the audience excluding midnight (i.e. $17.2m+), although a good Friday increase in the range of 200% could be expected.

3. With only one film opening and it being rated R, look for another round of good holds in general. Hereafter also has the extra benefit of adding another 243 theaters (+11.1%). However, Halloween is not particularly a box office friendly holiday, as there will be many weekend activities, especially on the trick-or-treat Sunday. Here is what happened last time when Halloween fell on a Sunday, so look for harsher Sunday declines for non-horror films.

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (10/18 - 24): Detective Dee No. 1 for the 4th straight week; Inception passed 450m yuan

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Detective Dee and the Mystery of the Phantom Flame(狄仁杰之通天帝国)22m ($3.30m)-35.3%26,040668,286274.6m ($41.10m)
3. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps(华尔街2:金钱永不眠)18.7m ($2.81m)+33.6%22,876575,20732.7m ($4.92m)
3. Don Quixote(唐吉可德)15m ($2.25m)+25.0%18,288383,72927m ($4.06m)
4. Inception(盗梦空间)6.3m ($0.95m)-41.1%6,132196,875452.35m ($67.10m)
5. The Island(绝命岛)5.5m ($0.83m)-38.9%10,165183,01414.5m ($2.18m)
6. Perfect Wedding(完美嫁衣)5.2m ($0.78m)New6,789163,0605.2m ($0.78m)
7. Ai Qing Wei Xiu Zhan(爱情维修站)3.7m ($0.56m)New7,207127,8063.7m ($0.56m)
8. Reign of Assassins(剑雨)3.3m ($0.50m)-57.1%6,091106,34866.0m ($8.72m)
9. The Love of the Hawthorn Tree(山楂树之恋)2.7m ($0.41m)-44.9%5,65984,454144.3m ($21.55m)
10. L'arnacoeur(芳心终结者)2.05m ($0.31m)New5,68769,6802.05m ($0.31m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1502)

Friday, October 22, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 22 - 24): Paranormal Activity 2, Hereafter

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Paranormal Activity 230.0$9,328 PTA
2. Jackass 3-D23.0-54.3%
3. Red14.5-33.4%
4. Hereafter10.0$4,585 PTA
5. The Social Network6.9-33.1%
6. Secretariat6.8-27.0%
7. Life as We Know It5.8-35.2%
8. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole2.8-33.8%
9. The Town2.5-37.1%
10. Easy A1.6-39.2%

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (10/4 - 17)

10/4 - 10/10

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Detective Dee and the Mystery of the Phantom Flame(狄仁杰之通天帝国)100.6m ($15.04m)-14.7%55,6743,033,775218.6m ($32.68m)
2. Inception(盗梦空间)40m ($5.98m)-1.7%20,1551,171,646435.35m ($64.54m)
3. Reign of Assassins(剑雨)24m ($3.59m)-22.6%21,687726,39255m ($8.22m)
4. Legend of the Fist: The Return of Chen Zhen(精武风云·陈真)18.4m ($2.75m)-43.4%19,772565,110132.9m ($19.84m)
5. The Love of the Hawthorn Tree(山楂树之恋)18m ($2.69m)-30.0%17,347544,959136.7m ($20.40m)
6. Die Jagd nach dem Schatz der Nibelungen(查理曼帝国密码)5m ($0.75m)+61.3%6,197174,8258.1m ($1.21m)
7. Love on Lushan Mountian 2010(庐山恋2010)3.1m ($0.46m)New6,954111,8323.1m ($0.46m)
8. The Sorcerer's Apprentice(魔法师的学徒)1.38m ($0.21m)-42.5%1,93351,78260.28m ($8.95m)
9. Pandemic(感染列岛)1.17m ($0.17m)New2,85240,8461.17m ($0.17m)
10. Hu Wang Gui Lai(虎王归来)1.1m ($0.16m)-37.1%2,34747,2914.95m ($0.74m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1495)


10/11 - 10/17

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Detective Dee and the Mystery of the Phantom Flame(狄仁杰之通天帝国)34m ($5.12m)-66.2%32,0241,017,354252.6m ($37.80m)
2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps(华尔街2:金钱永不眠)14m ($2.11m)New10,818418,41014m ($2.11m)
3. Don Quixote(唐吉可德)12m ($1.81m)New8,852295,05712m ($1.81m)
4. Inception(盗梦空间)10.7m ($1.61m)-73.3%10,730319,593446.05m ($66.15m)
5. The Island(绝命岛)8.7m ($1.31m)New12,938296,7258.7m ($1.31m)
6. Reign of Assassins(剑雨)7.7m ($1.16m)-67.9%11,370238,97062.7m ($8.22m)
7. The Love of the Hawthorn Tree(山楂树之恋)4.9m ($0.74m)-72.8%8,145150,908141.6m ($21.14m)
8. Legend of the Fist: The Return of Chen Zhen(精武风云·陈真)3.6m ($0.54m)-80.4%7,568110,735136.5m ($20.38m)
9. Jerry Cotton(悍将双雄)3.4m ($0.51m)New7,355115,8033.4m ($0.51m)
10. Virtual Recall(异空危情)1.2m ($0.18m)New2,25945,4201.2m ($0.18m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1505)

Friday, October 15, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 15 - 17): Jackass 3-D, Red

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Jackass 3-D34.0$11,035 PTA
2. Red23.0$7,066 PTA
3. The Social Network10.1-34.6%
4. Secretariat9.5-25.2%
5. Life as We Know It8.6-40.7%
6. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole4.5-34.7%
7. The Town3.8-40.7%
8. Easy A2.7-37.1%
9. My Soul to Take2.2-67.8%
10. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps2.1-54.4%

The Final Destination (42.9% increase over its predecessor in term of opening, 31.9% jump in per-theater-average) and Resident Evil: Afterlife (12.5% increase, 0.6% drop in PTA) provided us a couple of examples on how the 3D version of Jackass may perform. Jackass has a relatively stable audience, but the 3D fatigue could turn a few people off and make it have fewer admissions than before. Still, little so far has suggested it would not at least beat Jackass: Number Two: the BOM poll is stronger, there are plenty of tweets, and the advance sales are very robust. Resident Evil is likely the worst case scenario, while a 20% improvement to a $35m opening is well within reach.

On surface Red has a pretty generic plot, but what it has in its favor is the all-star cast, and the trailer effectively utilized that asset to generate a lot of interests, not just among the older demo, but also the 25-34 age crowd. The twitter report from BoxOffice.com may look weak, but I would contribute it to the super-generic title as the author Alex Edghill readily pointed out; a sub-100 ratio would not surprise me. The other signs are all quite excellent: Major Theater Chain tracking put it at $20m, 33% stronger than ReelSource' mid-teen figure; the BOM poll is much better than what films such as Cop Out and last year's Law Abiding Citizen received; and the PG-13 rating allows it to absorb any sneak-in or spillover business Jackass may generate. Look for it achieve a $7K+ PTA.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (9/27 - 10/3): Huge start for Detective Dee, not so for Reign of Assassins

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Detective Dee and the Mystery of the Phantom Flame(狄仁杰之通天帝国)118m ($17.64m)New42,9363,537,170118m ($17.64m)
2. Inception(盗梦空间)40.7m ($6.08m)-39.3%20,9981,179,710395.35m ($58.56m)
3. Legend of the Fist: The Return of Chen Zhen(精武风云·陈真)32.5m ($4.86m)-60.4%31,730991,458114.5m ($17.09m)
4. Reign of Assassins(剑雨)31m ($4.63m)New25,941950,04531m ($4.63m)
5. The Love of the Hawthorn Tree(山楂树之恋)25.7m ($3.84m)-46.5%23,155780,680118.7m ($17.71m)
6. Die Jagd nach dem Schatz der Nibelungen(查理曼帝国密码)3.1m ($0.46m)New3,174107,0443.1m ($0.46m)
7. The Sorcerer's Apprentice(魔法师的学徒)2.4m ($0.36m)-77.1%3,96287,62358.9m ($8.74m)
8. Hu Wang Gui Lai(虎王归来)1.75m ($0.26m)-16.7%2,88777,9513.85m ($0.57m)
9. Shrek Forever After(怪物史莱克4)0.67m ($0.10m)+3.1%69421,36490.09m ($13.3m)
10. Track Aduowan(举起手来2)0.38m ($0.057m)-76.3%58817,1348.26m ($1.22m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1495)

Note: The week-long Independence holiday in China ran from Oct 1st to 7th.

Friday, October 8, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 8 - 10): Secretariat, Life as We Know It, My Soul to Take, It's Kind of a Funny Story

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Secretariat15.7$5,100 PTA
2. The Social Network15.2-32.3%
3. Life as We Know It12.5$3,970 PTA
4. My Soul to Take7.3$2,840 PTA
5. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole7.1-34.8%
6. The Town6.2-36.4%
7. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps5.3-47.0%
8. Easy A4.0-40.7%
9. You Again3.1-45.8%
10. It's Kind of a Funny Story3.0$4,000 PTA
11. Case 392.5-53.2%
12. Let Me In2.3-55.3%

Don't have much time again to write in more details; I will just provide my daily breakdown for each time instead. Basically one factor to note is that Monday is Columbus Day in the U.S. and Thanksgiving in Canada. This means good news to all films, as their Sunday holds would improve by an average of 8% from the previous week, and family flicks would especially benefit. Secretariat itself will receive an extra boost for Sunday with Disney concerted effort to appeal to religious households.

MovieFridaySaturdaySunday
Secretariat4.76.3 (+34%)4.7 (-25%)
The Social Network4.5 (+155%)6.3 (+40%)4.4 (-30%)
Life as We Know It4.25.2 (+24%)3.1 (-40%)
My Soul to Take2.62.8 (+8%)1.9 (-32%)
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole1.7 (+210%)3.2 (+90%)2.2 (-32%)
The Town1.9 (+134%)2.6 (+35%)1.7 (-36%)
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps1.7 (+120%)2.3 (+35%)1.3 (-42%)
Easy A1.3 (+200%)1.7 (+31%)1.0 (-42%)
You Again0.93 (+140%)1.35 (+45%)0.77 (-43%)
It's Kind of a Funny Story0.91.2 (+35%)0.9 (-30%)
Case 390.75 (+120%)1.01 (+35%)0.7 (-31%)
Let Me In0.72 (+110%)0.97 (+35%)0.62 (-36%)

Friday, October 1, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Oct 1 - 3): The Social Network, Let Me In, Case 39

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Social Network24.2$8,733 PTA
2. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps11.2-41.1%
3. The Town10.8-30.8%
4. Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga'Hoole10.7-33.6%
5. Easy A7.4-30.2%
6. Let Me In6.0$2,970 PTA
7. You Again5.7-32.2%
8. Case 394.5$2,035 PTA
9. Alpha and Omega3.2-32.4%
10. Devil3.1-53.1%