Friday, September 3, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Sep 3 - 6)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Machete17.0$6,370 PTA
2. The American15.6$5,530 PTA
3. Takers11.3-44.9%
4. Going the Distance11.0$3,630 PTA
5. The Last Exorcism8.1-60.2%
6. The Expendables6.2-34.9%
7. Eat Pray Love5.3-22.2%
8. The Other Guys4.9-22.0%
9. Inception4.3-11.8%
10. Nanny McPhee Returns3.8-19.4%

The American earned $1.67m on its opening Wednesday, which may feel weak at first glance, but it is in fact a norm for Wednesday openers on Labor Day frame to not start out strong while come back to have a respectable weekend.  Here are the Wednesday-to-4-day-weekend multipliers of past such films since 1999:

Traitor - 12.63
Balls of Fury - 8.35
The Constant Gardener - 11.79
Vanity Fair - 10.45
Chill Factor - 13.57
Outside Providence - 11.51

Despite the OK reviews from critics, The misleading marketing campaign is creating some poor word-of-mouth from the general viewers, and Clooney's presence could increase the degree of frontloadedness.  Still, I would not expect its multiplier to be lower than Balls of Fury's given its adult-oriented nature.  A 9-9.5 multiplier would put its 4-day gross at $15-16m and 6-day total at $18-19m.

Could Machete beat The American for the weekend?  The film presents a very interesting case: on one hand, The tracking from Major Theater Chain was strong, and the Box Office Mojo poll is not shabby either; but on the other hand, director Robert Rodriguez has a much larger ratio of online following vs. general public awareness, and the failure of Grindhouse remains fresh in our minds.  My personal feeling is that the action/adventure genre could offset some of the online inflation and alleviate the level of frontloading.  Expect it to win Friday comfortably with $5m before falling back to make the weekend result much closer, as The American's IM will be quite a bit better, but I do believe it will stay ahead in the end.

Does not look like there will be a breakout for Going the Distance.  The BOM poll is right in the neighborhood of what She's Out of My League and My Best Friend's Girl, two other R-rated romantic comedies, had.  A similar $3m Friday would yield around $11m for the long weekend, echoing what the tracking indicated earlier this week.

The Last Exorcism has been mirroring Halloween 2's dailies very closely and is on track for a 65%+ drop over the 3-day portion even with holiday's help.   It should also experience the heaviest Monday decline.  Takers will hold better, but without any theater expansion (Sony missed an opportunity here) and a B CinemaScore, it is unlikely to prevent a 50%+ drop for the 3 days.  One piece of good news for the holdovers is that all three openers are rated R, while most of them are less restricted.  This could create sneak-in business as history has shown the direct competition hurts the most when it comes from film with the same rating, but it could in fact help when the new release is more restricted.  Also the family films will see the best holds on Labor Day Monday.

No comments:

Post a Comment