Thursday, July 1, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 2 - 4)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse74.0/166.0 (5-day)$16,760 PTA
2. The Last Airbender33.0/45.0 (4-day)$10,410 PTA
3. Toy Story 331.0-47.8%
4. Grown Ups17.0-58.0%
5. Knight & Day9.5-52.8%
6. The Karate Kid7.5-51.8%
7. A-Team2.7-56.5%
8. Get Him to the Greek1.4-55.4%
9. Shrek Forever After1.4-54.9%
10. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time1.3-54.3%

1. Eclipse' daily breakdown: 70 (30 from midnight) + 22 (-45% w/o midnight) + 28 (+27%) + 28 + 18 (-36%) = 166m;

2. The Last Airbender's daily breakdown: 12 + 12 + 12.5 (+4%) + 8.5 (-32%) = 45m;

3. The Last Airbender is having some of the most brutal reviews I have seen, and I don't expect the feedback from general public to be much different.  Still, it'll affect more on its legs, which will no doubt be awful, than the opening long weekend.

4. July 4th is not a movie-going holiday, as barbecue parties, fireworks, and other activities would depress the box office some.  Last time the Independence Day fell on Sunday, 2004, the Sunday drops ranged from 25% to 40%;

5. Monday will see a surge as many have the day off as well and will use it to catch up on movies.  In 2004, the Monday increases for the top 10 films were all higher than 21%, and several reached over 60%.

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