Thursday, July 29, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 30 - Aug 1)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Inception30.0-29.8%
2. Dinner for Schmucks23.0$7,900 PTA
3. Salt18.0-50.0%
4. Charlie St. Cloud15.0$5,500 PTA
5. Despicable Me15.0-36.7%
6. Cats & Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore14.0$3,780 PTA
7. Toy Story 35.1-42.8%
8. The Sorcerer's Apprentice4.7-51.3%
9. The Kids Are All Right4.5+73.4%
10. Grown Ups4.0-46.2%

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (7/19 - 7/25): Record-breaking start for Aftershock

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Aftershock(唐山大地震)180m ($26.55m)New52,2934,668,049180m ($26.55m)
2. Knight & Day(危情谍战)16m ($2.36m)-45.9%16,515500,78281.6m ($12.04m)
3. Triple Tap(枪王之王)12m ($1.77m)-55.6%16,279389,105123.5m ($18.23m)
4. Tang Bo Hu Dian Qiu Xiang 2(唐伯虎点秋香2)12m ($1.77m)-50%16,198394,08851m ($7.53m)
5. Toy Story 3(玩具总动员3)6.2m ($0.91m)-32.6%5,405141,423106.4m ($15.68m)
6. Seven Arhat(七小罗汉)4.5m ($0.66m)New3,804137,0284.5m ($0.66m)
7. CJ-7 2(长江七号爱地球)3.8m ($0.56m)-42.4%9,219145,31516.2m ($2.39m)
8. Chernaya Molniya(黑色闪电)3.4m ($0.50m)-15.0%6,521115,4897.4m ($1.09m)
9. Xi You Ji(嘻游记)3.1m ($0.46m)-54.4%6,148117,69127.7m ($4.09m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1475)

Aftershock is the most anticipated domestic film of the year in China, and it did not disappoint out of gate after opening in over 3,000 screens on Thursday and becoming the first Chinese film to be released in IMAX. It first set a new opening day record with 36.2m yuan (3m from midnight), surpassing Transformers 2's 33.71m and Avatar's 33.02m. Director Xiaogang Feng's previous best effort was If You Are the One's 18m yuan, while the previous best opening day for a Chinese film was Red Cliff I's 27m, so Aftershock shattered both. Then it averaged 48m yuan a day over the weekend, including 52.5m on Saturday, easily another record for a domestic film. The weekend overall was the second highest ever behind only Avatar's historical performance.

The long term prospect also looks rosy. The word-of-mouth has been excellent, and it will have the monopoly of IMAX for some time. Monday's estimate came in at 20m yuan, indicating another 180m week could be in store. The August competition is not all that strong, so I could see it reaching 600m yuan ($88.5m) total.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Projecting Inception's final domestic gross

There is no debate that Inception had a magnificent second weekend, but in order to answer the questions of how superb the hold really was and what range of final gross we are looking at now, we need to compare it in context with other past leggy summer releases. I decided to choose four of the leggiest we have seen in the previous decade: The Hangover (2009), Wedding Crashers (2005), Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (2003), and What Lies Beneath (2000). All of them have something in common with Inception. They are original films that enjoyed excellent word-of-mouth, and none truly belongs to a genre which is custom to produce such good runs: 2 R-rated, 1 horror, 1 sci-fi, and 1 action film. Pirates of the Caribbean came the closest by successfully appealing to families, but that was not apparent at the beginning, and it still has a more restricted rating (PG-13) than most family films. In addition, other than The Hangover, which was released in early June, all the others opened in July, giving us good daily comparisons.

Since midnight has taken a more prominent role over the years, the more controlled way to compare their data would be to subtract the midnight figure from calculation whenever appropriate, e.g. multiplier from opening weekend, second weekend drop, etc. The midnight numbers I used for the films are the following:

Inception ~ $3m
The Hangover ~ $750k
Wedding Crashers ~ $180k (for both WC and Hangover, deducted the ballpark number from this post by multiplying the result of notfabio's chain by 3)
Pirates of the Caribbean - 0 (since it opened on a Wednesday)
What Lies Beneath ~ 0 (the midnight was very much less of a factor in 2000)

First let's calculate the overall multiplier for the other films:
The Hangover - 6.25
Wedding Crashers - 6.20
Pirates of the Caribbean - 6.04 (calculated by subtracting the first two days' gross from the total)
What Lies Beneath - 5.23

The multiplier from the second weekend:
The Hangover - 6.26
Wedding Crashers - 6.02
Pirates of the Caribbean - 6.07
What Lies Beneath - 4.77

What we want to find out is that from Inception's data so far, what kind of multiplier we could expect for it. The second weekend drop is the first comparison to come to mind, again without midnight counted:

Inception - -28.5%
The Hangover - -25.9%
Wedding Crashers - -23.9%
Pirates of the Caribbean - -27.0%
What Lies Beneath - -23.0%

The Hangover had an extra month of summer weekdays and was able to turn a 25.9% drop into a 6.26 multiplier. Wedding Crashers and Pirates of the Caribbean didn't have that luxury and topped out at a bit lower multiplier. The latter group seems to fit Inception more, and with a worse sophomore weekend hold, it appears 5.9 would be the upper limit of what the film could achieve. However, Inception possesses one factor none of those two had: IMAX, which could help the midweek figures tremendously. One measurement to check its potential effect would be the ratio of Mon-to-Thurs total vs. the previous weekend, and here are the numbers for the opening week:

Inception - 0.625
The Hangover - 0.610
Wedding Crashers - 0.617
Pirates of the Caribbean - 0.608
What Lies Beneath - 0.565

Indeed, Inception came out on top, and that advantage in weekday gross could compensate for 1-2% difference in weekend drops, so in fact it is holding as good as Pirates of the Caribbean and only about 1% worse than The Hangover so far, meaning a 6.1 multiplier from the second weekend is still achievable.

What about What Lies Beneath? The film gives us some insight on another important factor impacting one's long term prosperity: competition. What Lies Beneath had the best second weekend hold (although when taking the midweek into account, the hold would have been on par), but ended up with a far worse multiplier. The main culprit is that it had to face Hollow Man, another horror film, on its third weekend, causing it to drop 39.6%. Even though it recovered fine afterward and had an 5.37 multiplier from its 4th weekend, that one higher-than-normal drop knocked its multiplier from the 2nd weekend down to 4.77. So how does it look on the competition front for Inception? Dinner for Schmucks will be its main competition this week, but it is not nearly as strong as Salt last week or what Pirates of the Caribbean had to face on its 3rd weekend (Spy Kids 3D and Tomb Raider 2). Then it'll be The Other Guys, but the biggest threat won't really come until the 08/13 weekend, where there will be 3 new wide releases, two of which target strongly toward the male audience - The Expendables and Scott Pilgrim vs. the World. After that, the question will mainly be how well it could hold on to its screens, as 8 more films are scheduled to open wide in the following two weeks. Overall, it will not be as a smooth sailing as what Wedding Crashers encountered (Pirates of the Caribbean also at least had a couple of weekends with little direct competition), but it's also better equipped to handle competition than What Lies Beneath, especially with IMAX all to itself for quite a while.

So my conclusion?

Conservative case: average 31% drop for the 3rd and 4th weekend, 40% drop the 5th weekend, and 4.8 multiplier from the 5th weekend on; 142.883424+42.725012*(0.625+0.69+0.69*(0.625+0.69)+0.69*0.69*(0.625+0.6*4.8)) = $309.13m (5.12 overall multiplier without midnight, 4.89 multiplier from second weekend)

Realistic case: average 27% drop for the 3rd and 4th weekend, 35% drop the 5th weekend, and 5.1 multiplier from the 5th weekend on; 142.883424+42.725012*(0.625+0.73+0.73*(0.625+0.73)+0.73*0.73*(0.625+0.65*5)) = $332.74m (5.52 and 5.44)

Best case: average 23% drop from the 3rd and 4th weekend, 30% drop the 5th weekend, and 5.4 multiplier from the 5th weekend on; 142.883424+42.725012*(0.625+0.77+0.77*(0.625+0.77)+0.77*0.77*(0.625+0.7*5.4)) = $359.96m (5.97 and 6.08)

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 23 - 25)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Inception40.0-36.3%
2. Salt33.0$9,136 PTA
3. Despicable Me23.0-29.9%
4. The Sorcerer's Apprentice9.0-48.9%
5. Toy Story 38.0-33.3%
6. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse7.0-47.8%
7. Ramona and Beezus6.3$2,317 PTA
8. Grown Ups6.0-39.5%
9. The Last Airbender3.7-52.3%
10. Predators3.1-55.8%

Salt has been an interesting film to track. Flixster's Bullseye report indicates it is a 4-quadrant film, but the buzz really only started to pick up this week and is seeing a late surge, judging by the twitter activity and advance sales. Its Opening Weekend percentage at the Box Office Mojo poll (25.2%) trails both Mr. & Mrs. Smith (29.4%) and Wanted (35.9%), while the high percentage of Sometime in Theaters votes also shows there are definite interests regarding the film. The turnout of female audience will be the key to how the first weekend will go. I see it achieving $100m+ total, but feel it will go the route of good-but-not-great opening with better-than-average legs, aided by the patience of the older crowd and strong weekday numbers. The reviews are actually better than what such a film normally received, and many pointed out it is an exciting ride for a summer popcorn movie, meaning good word-of-mouth could be expected.

The other opener of the week, Ramona and Beezus, will struggle to make any impact at the box office. Fox is giving it a fairly wide release, putting it in 2,719 theaters, but the per-theater-average will be quite weak. While the genre is always one of the weakest performers at BOM polls, its breakdown there is only on par with Material Girls and Aquamarine and much worse than what the most recent Letters to Juliet received. Look for a PTA in the low $2,000 range for a $6-6.5m opening.

During the week, Inception has performed similarly to what I expected, or in another word: strong. The Friday increase will be somewhat subdued due to the high percentage of daily gross it is earning from IMAX theaters, but a $12m Friday and $40m weekend look very likely. If we exclude the $3m Inception earned from midnight, a $40m second weekend would mean just a 33.1% decline from the opening frame, putting it squarely on the path of $300m+ total.

Despicable Me showed great strength last week when it fell only 41.8% against The Sorcerer's Apprentice's opening. This weekend, it will not only add another 99 theaters, but also grab some 3D screens from either The Last Airbender or Toy Story 3. With no new direct competition, a sub-30% drop could very well be in store.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (7/12 - 7/18): Calm before the storm

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Knight & Day(危情谍战)29.6m ($4.37m)-17.8%22,788907,97565.6m ($9.68m)
2. Triple Tap(枪王之王)27m ($3.99m)-41.9%24,504848,522111.5m ($16.46m)
3. Tang Bo Hu Dian Qiu Xiang 2(唐伯虎点秋香2)24m ($3.54m)+60%22,546773,19539m ($5.76m)
4. Toy Story 3(玩具总动员3)9.2m ($1.36m)-31.9%7,076199,479100.2m ($14.76m)
5. Xi You Ji(嘻游记)6.8m ($1.00m)-43.3%9,457251,38624.6m ($3.63m)
6. CJ-7 2(长江七号爱地球)6.6m ($0.97m)+13.8%13,299239,04312.4m ($1.83m)
7. Chernaya Molniya(黑色闪电)4.0m ($0.59m)New5,146129,7434.0m ($0.59m)
8. Spacked Out(无人驾驶)3.8m ($0.56m)-44.1%5,444117,97516.2m ($2.39m)
9. The Fantastic Water Babes(出水芙蓉)2.4m ($0.35m)-48.9%4,75386,2992.4m ($0.35m)
10. Welcome To Sha-ma Town(决战刹马镇)2.1m ($0.31m)-60.4%3,49269,62847.4m ($6.99m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1476)

With Aftershock, director Xiaogang Feng's latest film based on the tragic Tangshan earthquake 34 years ago, looming on July 22nd, studios have shunned away from releasing anything major in the several weeks around it. As a result, most films saw fine holds last week. Most notably, Toy Story 3 finally crossed 100m yuan, a good achievement after a somewhat disappointing opening. However, expect massive drops across the board this week since Aftershock will take away more than 95% of the screens (TS3 may be the only one that could survive) . It will also be the first Chinese film to be released in IMAX format. The degree of market saturation will be unprecedented, and record-breaking numbers are expected. Feng has publicly stated that the goal is 500m yuan ($74m) total, and I would not bet against it.

Monday, July 19, 2010

Predicting Inception's dailies this week

After a great internal multiplier for the weekend (3.18 without midnight, one of the highest we have seen for July in years), the attention now turns to how Inception will perform during the week. Two years ago,  The Dark Knight saw a couple of incredible holds when it fell a tiny 8.5% on its first Sunday and then dropped only 43.8% on Monday,  paving the way for the $500m+ total.  A similarly strong performance for Inception could be in store.

The key is that, besides having the same advantage of being in July, IMAX is playing an even more prominent role with Inception.  The weekend report showed 12% of the gross came from IMAX, and that would translate to a $7.5m total from the 197 theaters, or $2.5m per day.  As we have seen from Hubble 3D and other IMAX-exclusive films, the daily fluctuation for IMAX theaters during the summer is pretty minimal.   I expect another $2m from IMAX alone on Monday, and the number should continue to hold throughout the midweek.  For the $16.7m it got from 2D screens on Sunday, we should see a sub-50% decline given its appeal to the 18-25 crowd and the great word-of-mouth it is enjoying there.  Here are how some of the other summer non-3D WOM hits did on their first Monday: The Hangover - -41.9%, The Sixth Sense - -50%, Knocked Up - -53.9%.  I would put the drop from non-IMAX screens for Inception at 47%, leading to a 16.7*0.53 + 2 = $10.85m Monday, or -43.5% from Sunday.

From there, if we assume a 10% decline from its 2D screens each day before Friday and steady hold from IMAX, we will have $9.97m (16.7*0.53*0.9+2), $9.17m (16.7*0.53*0.9^2+2), and $8.45m (16.7*0.53*0.9^3+2) from Tuesday to Thursday respectively.

To summarize, here is my rough prediction for how Inception will perform this week before Friday:

Monday - 10.85 (-43.5%)
Tuesday - 9.97 (-8.1%)
Wednesday - 9.17 (-8.0%)
Thursday - 8.45 (-7.9%)

If it could stay at $8.5m or above on Thursday, a $12m Friday and $40m second weekend will be well within reach.  And if that does happen, $300m total will become a much more realistic target.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (7/5 - 7/11)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Triple Tap(枪王之王)46.5m ($6.86m)+22.4%33,4141,476,65984.5m ($12.47m)
2. Knight & Day(危情谍战)36m ($5.31m)New29,4931,117,31836m ($5.31m)
3. Tang Bo Hu Dian Qiu Xiang 2(唐伯虎点秋香2)15m ($2.21m)New10,122465,69315m ($2.21m)
4. Toy Story 3(玩具总动员3)13.5m ($1.99m)-38.6%10,145300,73591m ($13.40m)
5. Xi You Ji(嘻游记)12m ($1.77m)+106.9%13,720447,59417.8m ($2.63m)
6. Spacked Out(无人驾驶)6.8m ($1.00m)+21.4%10,204208,90912.4m ($1.83m)
7. CJ-7 2(长江七号爱地球)5.8m ($0.86m)New8,010208,1095.8m ($0.86m)
8. Welcome To Sha-ma Town(决战刹马镇)5.3m ($0.78m)-70.6%7,986173,94145.3m ($6.68m)
9. The Fantastic Water Babes(出水芙蓉)4.7m ($0.69m)New8,553168,7614.7m ($0.69m)
10. The Karate Kid(功夫梦)4.2m ($0.62m)-76.4%7,193136,40747m ($6.93m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1476)

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 15 - 17)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Inception55.0$14,500 PTA
2. Despicable Me33.0-41.5%
3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice18.0 / 25.0 (5-day)$5,320 PTA
4. Toy Story 315.5-26.2%
5. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse15.0-52.7%
6. Predators9.5-61.6%
7. Grown Ups9.0-43.1%
8. The Last Airbender7.5-54.9%
9. Knight & Day5.0-35.2%
10. The Karate Kid3.2-40.4%

I have to admit I cannot remember the last time I have so many different feelings regarding a film's opening weekend.  It is also one of the rare times where my heart is pulling hard one way, but my mind keeps saying the opposite.  With Inception, the only thing I am certain of is its legs, which will be truly outstanding.  Even with Nolan's rabid fanbase and the sci-fi genre, I do not see a multiplier lower than 4.0, and a 5 is achievable with its appeal to adults and guaranteed multiple viewings by many.  The uncertainty lies in how it will start.  Prior to this week, I believed the film could open to $70m+ with the buzz I'm feeling around me (all summer my colleagues singled out this to be the one movie they are looking forward to see) and my own anticipation, but then the tracking brought the first bad news: Major Theater Chain showed only $48m, 20% lower than Reel Source's $60m.  The buzz online remains deafening, as shown by the # of tweets and Box Office Mojo polls, but the awareness among general public feels rather subdued.  This divide also gives me pause.  The latest long TV spots where they explained the roles of each character are not exactly engaging, and I would have simply stuck with the more mysterious and awe-inspiring teasers/trailers they had previously shown in theaters.  So far the online sales are robust, but not at a level suggesting a mega-opening.  I am still hoping for a $65m+ start, but something lower looks more realistic at this point.  On the other hand, Minority Report's opening would adjust to around $52m today, and I cannot see why Inception would gather fewer admissions, so anything lower would certainly make me personally disappointed.

The early reports on Wednesday showed The Sorcerer's Apprentice was heading toward a $4m opening day, essentially where I expected the number to land before the release. If we use Knight & Day's Wednesday-to-weekend multiplier, it will translate to $21.1m for the weekend, while following Herbie Fully Loaded's dailies would put it at $18.8m. Being more of a family film and deeper into the summer, The Sorcerer's Apprentice should have a multiplier closer to the latter. Either way, it should not deviate much from that range unless the actual Wednesday figure turns out to be quite different. (Thursday morning update: it turned out to be a $3.7m Wednesday, putting the weekend at $17-20m.)

Last Sunday was deflated some by the World Cup Final, as all top 10 films dropped more than 30% from Saturday (four of which declined over 39%), very unusual for a July frame. Look for holdovers to have better Sunday this time around to help their weekend holds. Despicable Me will also have the advantages of great word-of-mouth (A+ CinemaScore from the core audience and A grade from others) and 3D screens. A few owners may even decide to drop The Last Airbender from 3D now its 2-week engagement requirement is up and replace it with Despicable Me instead. G-Force last year dropped 44.8% on its sophomore frame with much more mediocre reactions, so there is no reason why Despicable Me could not hold more strongly at around 40%.

There is one film in the top 10 that will benefit the most from The Sorcerer's Apprentice's release: Toy Story 3. Both are from Disney, which, as the history has shown, likes to use double-feature or whatever other means they have in disposal to help out their current releases when another of their films opens. I see a 30% drop at worst, and Shrek 2 is definitely not safe yet.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 9 - 11): Despicable Me and Predators

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Despicable Me45.0$12,950 PTA
2. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse28.0-56.8%
3. Toy Story 319.5-35.6%
4. Predators19.0$7,120 PTA
5. The Last Airbender14.8-63.3%
6. Grown Ups12.5-34.4%
7. Knight & Day7.3-30.1%
8. The Karate Kid5.5-31.3%
9. A-Team1.7-46.7%
10. Cyrus1.3+67.9%

The signs are looking great for Despicable Me. Here are some comparison with Box Office Mojo polls:

MovieOpening WeekendSometime in TheatersOn DVDOn TVNeverOpening #
Despicable Me21.4%26.3%24.0%8.4%20.0%?
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs13.9%17.5%22.4%7.5%38.6%$30.3m
Monsters Vs. Aliens27.7%26.0%23.5%6.4%16.4%$59.3m
Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who22.3%19.4%25.0%8.7%24.7%$45.0m
Robots21.8%32.8%25.5%7.5%12.4%$36.0m

Its polls are quite similar to what Horton Hears a Who and Robots had and 50% better than Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs' figures. When we add in the ticket price inflation and 3D screens, anything less than $40m seems highly unlikely. The fact that Major Theater Chain's tracking came in way above Reel Source's (35 vs. low-20s) only confirms the feeling, not to mention it has been selling well online, one area it is not supposed to excel in. Look for it to exceed most expectations to take the weekend at ease.

The scenario is the exact opposite for Predators. Its Major Theater Chain's tracking number was significantly below the Reel Source one (24 vs. low-to-mid-30s), and the BOM polls are not encouraging either:

MovieOpening WeekendSometime in TheatersOn DVDOn TVNeverOpening #
Predators24.8%22.1%23.5%6.8%22.9%?
Aliens Vs. Predator - Requiem23.4%14.4%19.7%5.4%37.1%$26.9m (6-day)
Alien Vs. Predator32.3%22.1%19.9%7.6%18.1%$38.3m
Saw VI17.7%7.8%16.3%4.4%53.8%$14.1m

The breakdown is comparable to Requiem but at least better than what Saw VI received. It indicates an opening day in the range of $8-9m, but even with better than expected reviews (currently having a fresh rating overall at Rottentomatoes), a large Saturday decline will be in store, and the weekend IM won't be higher than 2.3. Another worrisome sign is that its actual theater count is only 2,669, even lower than originally estimated. Difficult to see it breaking $20m under these circumstances.

Two weeks ago, if we were asked which would drop more on the second weekend between Eclipse and The Last Airbender, the former would have grabbed the lion share of the vote due to the frontloaded nature of the Twilight franchise, but now the latter appears destined to win. Between the two, Eclipse is having much stronger weekday numbers and enjoying better word-of-mouth. The new releases will also hit The Last Airbender's demographics, as well as its 3D screens, much more directly. If Eclipse could limit its drop to mid-50s this weekend, it will in fact stand a decent shot at passing New Moon's total.

The last time July 4th fell on a Sunday, in 2004, all non-openers in the top 10 enjoyed excellent holds the following weekend. Expect similar behavior this time around, unless a film is losing huge amount of theaters. In particular, look for Toy Story 3 to survive the opening of Despicable Me just fine and clear one of the last hurdles in its path toward $400m.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

China Weekly Box Office (6/28 - 7/4)

MovieWeekly Gross (yuan/dollar)Change# of showingsadmissionsTotal (yuan/dollar)
1. Triple Tap(枪王之王)38m ($5.61m)New18,2001,167,43438m ($5.61m)
2. Toy Story 3(玩具总动员3)22m ($3.25m)-8.3%15,520491,94977.5m ($11.4m)
3. Welcome To Sha-ma Town(决战刹马镇)18m ($2.66m)-18.2%20,387596,02640m ($5.89m)
4. The Karate Kid(功夫梦)17.8m ($2.63m)-28.8%20,602572,71542.8m ($6.30m)
5. Shanghai(谍海风云)8.5m ($1.25m)-50.0%11,397249,92646m ($6.77m)
6. Heaven Eternal, Earth Everlasting(80’后)7.6m ($1.12m)+72.7%11,028250,90712m ($1.77m)
7. The Legend Is Born - Ip Man(叶问前传)6.2m ($0.91m)-4.6%7,803205,89112.7m ($1.87m)
8. Xi You Ji(嘻游记)5.8m ($0.86m)New5,718206,1855.8m ($0.86m)
9. Spacked Out(无人驾驶)5.6m ($0.83m)New6,606162,5075.6m ($0.83m)
10. Ocean Heaven(海洋天堂)3m ($0.44m)-43.4%5,027100,87413.4m ($1.97m)
(Source, 1 chinese yuan == $0.1475)

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jul 2 - 4)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse74.0/166.0 (5-day)$16,760 PTA
2. The Last Airbender33.0/45.0 (4-day)$10,410 PTA
3. Toy Story 331.0-47.8%
4. Grown Ups17.0-58.0%
5. Knight & Day9.5-52.8%
6. The Karate Kid7.5-51.8%
7. A-Team2.7-56.5%
8. Get Him to the Greek1.4-55.4%
9. Shrek Forever After1.4-54.9%
10. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time1.3-54.3%

1. Eclipse' daily breakdown: 70 (30 from midnight) + 22 (-45% w/o midnight) + 28 (+27%) + 28 + 18 (-36%) = 166m;

2. The Last Airbender's daily breakdown: 12 + 12 + 12.5 (+4%) + 8.5 (-32%) = 45m;

3. The Last Airbender is having some of the most brutal reviews I have seen, and I don't expect the feedback from general public to be much different.  Still, it'll affect more on its legs, which will no doubt be awful, than the opening long weekend.

4. July 4th is not a movie-going holiday, as barbecue parties, fireworks, and other activities would depress the box office some.  Last time the Independence Day fell on Sunday, 2004, the Sunday drops ranged from 25% to 40%;

5. Monday will see a surge as many have the day off as well and will use it to catch up on movies.  In 2004, the Monday increases for the top 10 films were all higher than 21%, and several reached over 60%.