Friday, June 18, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (June 18 - 20): Going to be a record setting weekend

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Toy Story 3123$30,540 PTA
2. The Karate Kid32.3-42.0%
3. A-Team13.5-47.4%
4. Shrek Forever After7.5-52.4%
5. Jonah Hex7.1$2,510 PTA
6. Get Him to the Greek6.4-35.6%
7. Killers4.4-45.1%
8. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time3.5-46.0%
9. Marmaduke2.7-55.1%
8. Sex and the City 22.5-54.0%

We could see a couple of records falling this weekend: 1) Toy Story 3 could have the biggest opening ever for an animated film, surpassing Shrek the Third's $121.6m start; 2) the top 10 films could gross over $200m combined and become the first June weekend ever to achieve the feat. There are a lot of exciting stuff to talk about, including two new releases that are headed in very opposite directions, both box office and reviews wise. Unfortunately, I feel pretty drained personally. All my spare time this week has been occupied by either World Cup or moving out of the apartment, and the energy just isn't there at the moment to go through the analysis in details, so I'll simply post my predictions and leave the discussion to my interested readers and friends. :)


  1. any particular reason for the lower TS3 prediction compared to Thursday morning?

  2. Not really. I still have the opening range pinned at $120-130m.

  3. I see, thought there was some last-minute negative gut feeling or indicator that influenced you to go a bit you still think it will cross $500m? $127m and $123m may not be that far apart, but could be the difference between $500m or not.

  4. Yep, still think $500m total. The second weekend will be very strong too with no new direct competition, and I could see Shrek 2 type of legs.

  5. Hmm I thought you would have went with 140 + mil on TS3

    and 2 mil less on that abysmal looking megan fox movie