Thursday, June 10, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (Jun 11 - 13): it's 80s week as Karate Kid and A-Team do battle

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. The Karate Kid40.0$10,920 PTA
2. A-Team33.0$9,340 PTA
3. Shrek Forever After16.0-37.2%
4. Get Him to the Greek11.0-37.4%
5. Killers8.7-45.1%
6. Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time7.7-45.1%
7. Marmaduke6.5-44.0%
8. Sex and the City 25.8-53.0%
9. Iron Man 24.5-43.2%
10. Splice2.8-62.1%

The signs for The Karate Kid are excellent across the board. The latest figures from Thursday afternoon showed that the film accounted for a very healthy 22% of Fandango's online ticket sales. On the twitter front, it is on pace for 16,000 tweets from Monday to Thursday. The Friday ratio is a little hard to pin down since on one hand it appeals to family audience, while on the other hand it is a well-known commodity and has Justin Bieber‎, a twitter magnet, attached for the song. Overall, I don't expect the ratio to be as high as 1,500, but it should not be below 1,000 either, leaving the Friday range to be between $11m and $16m. Lastly, its Box Office Mojo poll may appear weak at first glance, as it only has 13.1% of voters say Opening Weekend and 17.8% select Sometimes in Theaters. However, for a PG-rated film with no cast member attracting big online following, the numbers are actually quite good. It reminds me a bit of The Blind Side, which translated a 10.5% OW and 18.2% SiT to a $34.1m opening. Look for a $13m+ Friday and around $40m over the first three days. I also expect strong legs; more on that in the next article.

A-Team may be getting overshadowed somewhat by The Karate Kid, but it has solid buzz of its own. It represented 11% of Fandango's ticket sales as of Thursday afternoon, and its Opening Weekend percentage in the BOM poll is only 15% worse than what G.I. Joe, a $54.7m opener, had (31.1% vs. 36.4%). Getting close to 10,000 tweets Mon-to-Thurs does not indicate a failure either. The reviews are also turning out to be better than expected, hovering around 50% at Rottentomatoes, an achievement considering what many think of the original TV series. One interesting factor to see would be how World Cup, especially with USA playing England on Saturday, and NBA Final will affect its moviegoers. Still, it should put up a respectable battle for Friday's crown before setting in second place for the weekend.

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