Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Revise the Prediction for The Karate Kid's Total: $250m+

Turned out that $160m was proven too low the day after I posted, so it's time to update that prediction. The signs for it having serious legs are already there: its Saturday increase and Monday decline are both better than what Kung Fu Panda had respectively. It's also tracking quite closely to Cars on a daily basis. Yes, the upcoming competitions will be more fierce than any of those two had to face during their first several weeks, but this appeals to a much wider audience than just families and will be the clear-cut No. 1 choice for people who either couldn't get into or want to wait a bit before seeing Toy Story 3 and other subsequent new releases. Currently I can't see a multiplier below 4.0, and to reach $250, it "only" needs a 4.5 multiplier, a number where we have seen at least one wide release achieve every June except for 2008 and 2003 (and 28 Days Later came very close that year). It by no means an easy task, but I'll go a little bold here and say the film will reach the mark.

1 comment:

  1. I think $250m+ might be slightly optimistic but not by much.

    As you note there is competition from Toy Story 3, Airbender and others in the weeks ahead but an additional factor you dont mention is pent up demand, which balances out these concerns. The movie going public have rejected many titles over the past few weeks and I sense that the environment is ripe for a popular, crowd pleasing title to fill this vacuum.

    The market has proven on numerous occassions that when there is decent product, it will expand: people will come back the next week and see the film they missed.

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