Friday, May 7, 2010

Weekend Box Office Predictions (May 7 - 9)

MoviePredicted Gross (m)Change
1. Iron Man 2148$33,790 PTA
2. A Nightmare on Elm Street8.5-74.2%
3. How to Train Your Dragon6.7-36.9%
4. Date Night4.5-40.6%
5. The Back-Up Plan4.3-40.7%
6. Furry Vengeance3.6-45.7%
7. Clash of the Titans2.9-50.5%
8. Babies2.5$4,680 PTA
9. The Losers2.4-59.2%
10. Kick-Ass1.6-64.6%

Just came back from Iron Man 2 midnight and it's 3am, so going to be a quick one today.

1. I no longer feel Iron Man 2 will break the opening weekend record, especially after what I personally saw in theater. The first Iron Man was not a big midnight earner either, and although the sequel will definitely improve, being so early in May remains a hindrance on that front. Weekend business will be superb, especially with Mother's Day falling on Sunday and Robert Downey Jr's popularity with ladies, but I believe it will more likely be fighting with Spider-Man 3 for the second best opener of all time.

2. Babies has gotten some decent buzz, and the latest controversy from the AP article on possible child labor law violation could only increase the awareness. It will also be a film to benefit a lot from Mother's Day, so expect an excellent IM.

3. Iron Man 2 will cause havoc on male-oriented R-rated holdovers, so look for heaviest drops to occur with A Nightmare on Elm Street and Kick-Ass. It also doesn't help that the former was super-frontloaded last weekend, while the latter is losing 30.8% of its theaters.

4. On the other hand, Mother's Day will help both family and female oriented films, in particular the former. It's a main reason why Furry Vengeance won't fall off the cliff this weekend even though its midweek figures hadn't been too great. It will also take advantage of Letters to Juliet's sneak previews (in 882 theaters) and could in fact see a Sunday increase as a result.

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